TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

CS2 · resolved market

Counter-Strike: 1WIN vs Virtus.pro (BO3) - CIS LAN Championship Group D

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Virtus.proof 1WIN, Virtus.pro
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
CS2every record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$111,759
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$122,508

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $111,759 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 251 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in CS2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in CS2
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x6185…2965backed Virtus.pro33c13,968$4,625 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9,342.914051.4%72 W · 68 L+1.8wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+8.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9770…0ff5backed 1WIN67c12,000$8,040 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8,0408043.8%35 W · 45 L-3.8wins-0.05per pick48cpaid-11.9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x29b5…cc6cbacked Virtus.pro34c10,030$3,403 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,627.045,02855%2,763 W · 2,265 L+112.5wins+0.02per pick53cpaid+5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xda3a…381fbacked 1WIN66c7,500$4,950 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,949.9418350.8%93 W · 90 L+6.4wins+0.04per pick47cpaid+5.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6b97…8d30backed 1WIN66c7,243$4,801 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,801.1566551.9%345 W · 320 L+8.9wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+0.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4b59…3aa6backed 1WIN64c5,987$3,852 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,851.7284658.4%494 W · 352 L+60.7wins+0.07per pick51cpaid+15.1%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xcb51…d2f5backed 1WIN65c5,000$3,250 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,249.952857.1%16 W · 12 L+3.3wins+0.12per pick45cpaid+25%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x689c…6b1ebacked 1WIN66c3,237$2,126 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,125.9627552%143 W · 132 L-5.2wins-0.02per pick54cpaid-5.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x085e…9aeabacked Virtus.pro49c2,854$1,405 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,448.383759.5%22 W · 15 L+3.2wins+0.09per pick51cpaid+21.4%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xdb83…1e50backed 1WIN65c2,797$1,830 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,830.352,61051.7%1,349 W · 1,261 L+16.3wins+0.01per pick51cpaid-2.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1065…6218backed Virtus.pro34c2,746$935 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,811.1848040%192 W · 288 L+8.6wins+0.02per pick38cpaid+5.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x52b7…0aa1backed Virtus.pro34c2,500$846 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,653.291,40833.7%475 W · 933 L+43.0wins+0.03per pick31cpaid+8.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x8056…b64dbacked Virtus.pro42c2,416$1,025 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,390.651,62144.8%726 W · 895 L+3.6wins0.00per pick45cpaid-5.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x72aa…90e0backed 1WIN40c2,141$866 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$866.264,22049.2%2,078 W · 2,142 L+61.6wins+0.01per pick48cpaid-10.6%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x8051…2ab5backed Virtus.pro47c2,133$1,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,132.721560%9 W · 6 L+1.7wins+0.12per pick48cpaid+32.9%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x54c2…23adbacked 1WIN50c2,116$1,058 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,057.998748.3%42 W · 45 L0.0wins0.00per pick48cpaid-4.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1a1e…f992backed Virtus.pro35c1,968$689 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,279.522441.7%10 W · 14 L+0.8wins+0.03per pick38cpaid+11.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x433c…81eabacked Virtus.pro33c1,957$646 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,311.081442.9%6 W · 8 L-0.3wins-0.02per pick45cpaid+5.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x21ec…5348backed 1WIN65c1,860$1,209 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,209.2772453.7%389 W · 335 L+11.9wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+3.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5d5a…4289backed 1WIN68c1,782$1,203 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,203.1722750.2%114 W · 113 L-5.4wins-0.02per pick53cpaid-8.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x40ce…bf90backed Virtus.pro34c1,700$578 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,121.9926054.2%141 W · 119 L-0.9wins0.00per pick55cpaid-0.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x07f9…1513backed Virtus.pro35c1,602$555 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,046.5244343.3%192 W · 251 L-7.1wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-10.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1c98…186dbacked Virtus.pro36c1,553$553 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$999.6935947.9%172 W · 187 L-10.1wins-0.03per pick51cpaid-10.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xbf5e…4189backed 1WIN48c1,493$711 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$710.8233452.1%174 W · 160 L+10.7wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+1.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x0083…80fdbacked Virtus.pro36c1,482$531 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9517038.6%27 W · 43 L-5.2wins-0.07per pick46cpaid-24.9%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xe062…f949backed 1WIN50c1,320$660 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6604452.3%23 W · 21 L+1.3wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+14.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xaab2…a999backed 1WIN65c1,257$820 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$819.64461.4%27 W · 17 L+6.0wins+0.14per pick48cpaid+26.5%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0xcb5b…f243backed 1WIN57c1,205$685 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$685.014,03848.1%1,943 W · 2,095 L-23.9wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-11.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd3e7…bf64backed 1WIN66c1,200$792 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$79256941.3%235 W · 334 L-21.0wins-0.04per pick45cpaid-11%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x82d2…beeabacked Virtus.pro38c1,162$445 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$716.931,00752.4%528 W · 479 L+27.8wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+3.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x99e6…59dbbacked Virtus.pro33c1,146$378 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$767.796541.5%27 W · 38 L-3.0wins-0.05per pick46cpaid-13.7%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x7069…325bbacked 1WIN51c1,000$510 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$509.9294445.7%431 W · 513 L+17.8wins+0.02per pick44cpaid+6.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8adb…e4f6backed 1WIN67c999.99$670 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$669.9929449.3%145 W · 149 L-10.3wins-0.04per pick53cpaid-8.4%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xf964…a4cebacked Virtus.pro33c993.93$328 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$666.035837.9%22 W · 36 L-0.8wins-0.01per pick39cpaid-6.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x66ea…6791backed Virtus.pro36c968.78$344 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$624.7817948%86 W · 93 L+4.3wins+0.02per pick46cpaid+9.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xffda…4455backed 1WIN66c909.09$600 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$600540%2 W · 3 L-1.0wins-0.20per pick60cpaid-27.5%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xc34b…9296backed Virtus.pro33c900.34$300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$600.341,99853.7%1,073 W · 925 L+5.2wins0.00per pick53cpaid+1.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe337…1f6fbacked 1WIN48c883.68$422 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$421.6126341.1%108 W · 155 L+1.8wins+0.01per pick40cpaid+2.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0a7c…8964backed 1WIN64c838.15$537 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$536.9961054.6%333 W · 277 L+10.7wins+0.02per pick53cpaid+5.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xbe59…0d2ebacked Virtus.pro35c800$284 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$51658343.6%254 W · 329 L+0.4wins0.00per pick43cpaid+0.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1ed8…eb23backed 1WIN43c777.97$332 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$332.482556%14 W · 11 L-0.4wins-0.02per pick58cpaid+8.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0dad…4855backed 1WIN65c749.99$487 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$487.510352.4%54 W · 49 L+2.1wins+0.02per pick50cpaid+4.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6013…9826backed 1WIN66c741.96$492 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$491.6111863.6%75 W · 43 L-3.4wins-0.03per pick66cpaid-3.8%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x2529…548abacked 1WIN47c727.72$344 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$344.233,21751.3%1,649 W · 1,568 L+89.2wins+0.03per pick48cpaid-6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x51db…f9b3backed 1WIN44c722.29$321 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$321.176,46642.9%2,777 W · 3,689 L-78.0wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-21.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5984…76ebbacked Virtus.pro35c717.54$251 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$466.452236.8%192 W · 330 L+20.2wins+0.04per pick33cpaid+11.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xfc04…f726backed 1WIN66c700$461 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4611338.5%5 W · 8 L-1.4wins-0.10per pick49cpaid-20.9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xeedc…41d9backed Virtus.pro35c698.6$247 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$451.61464.3%9 W · 5 L+2.7wins+0.19per pick45cpaid+32.4%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xb826…cdc1backed Virtus.pro34c655.88$223 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$432.88425%1 W · 3 L-0.4wins-0.10per pick35cpaid-26.5%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x616f…e14cbacked Virtus.pro38c651.95$249 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$402.982653.8%14 W · 12 L+1.0wins+0.04per pick50cpaid+13.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x47c6…2fe4backed Virtus.pro46c645.31$300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$345.4421147.9%101 W · 110 L-6.9wins-0.03per pick51cpaid-7.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x10b0…8525backed 1WIN64c633$406 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$406.1960748.1%292 W · 315 L+7.3wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-2.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x906f…2877backed 1WIN65c615.34$400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$399.9764554.4%351 W · 294 L+25.9wins+0.04per pick50cpaid+7.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xfa60…556cbacked Virtus.pro39c609.99$238 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$371.4932352%168 W · 155 L+1.9wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+0.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2067…7350backed 1WIN66c606.06$400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40027657.6%159 W · 117 L+11.4wins+0.04per pick53cpaid+7.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xdc77…17afbacked 1WIN66c606.06$400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$400250%1 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.17per pick67cpaid-26.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x36d8…c7c7backed Virtus.pro35c594.9$208 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$386.6957641.5%239 W · 337 L-8.3wins-0.01per pick43cpaid-9%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x543d…89f8backed Virtus.pro33c585.09$193 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$392.011643.8%7 W · 9 L-0.5wins-0.03per pick47cpaid+8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x591d…f4dfbacked Virtus.pro34c583.71$201 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$382.3918846.8%88 W · 100 L+1.1wins+0.01per pick46cpaid+4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe0e3…c760backed Virtus.pro34c555.88$189 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$366.887935.4%28 W · 51 L-2.1wins-0.03per pick38cpaid-12.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xdbe8…1141backed Virtus.pro35c548.57$192 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$356.577742.9%33 W · 44 L+0.4wins0.00per pick42cpaid-1.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdbdd…a5debacked Virtus.pro50c544.65$271 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$273.387,89250.5%3,983 W · 3,909 L+182.0wins+0.02per pick48cpaid-2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x9d94…017dbacked Virtus.pro45c542.52$244 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$298.792,22141.3%917 W · 1,304 L-22.6wins-0.01per pick42cpaid-19.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfd14…2267backed Virtus.pro39c531.34$205 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$326.065,81037.8%2,196 W · 3,614 L+78.9wins+0.01per pick36cpaid+0.8%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xdec9…b8abbacked 1WIN64c517$331 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$330.8820643.7%90 W · 116 L-9.2wins-0.04per pick48cpaid-13.1%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x7b50…1db2backed Virtus.pro36c484.29$174 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$309.955950.8%30 W · 29 L+3.7wins+0.06per pick45cpaid+10.2%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x787f…d40cbacked Virtus.pro35c475.34$165 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$310.6827740.8%113 W · 164 L-15.3wins-0.06per pick46cpaid-13.8%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x1bac…d241backed Virtus.pro35c470.51$165 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$305.8340439.6%160 W · 244 L-1.2wins0.00per pick40cpaid-8.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7c70…9a6cbacked Virtus.pro42c460.62$193 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$267.135137.3%19 W · 32 L-4.7wins-0.09per pick47cpaid-20.9%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x14a0…22bbbacked 1WIN62c437.21$271 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$270.581,39365.9%918 W · 475 L+26.8wins+0.02per pick64cpaid+1.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xae10…09e3backed Virtus.pro37c427.62$160 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$267.396251.6%32 W · 30 L+2.5wins+0.04per pick48cpaid+6.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x8cc2…d305backed Virtus.pro35c399.98$140 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$259.998953.9%48 W · 41 L+2.2wins+0.03per pick51cpaid+3.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5fd8…54b3backed 1WIN56c389.93$217 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$217.411850%59 W · 59 L-7.8wins-0.07per pick57cpaid-12.4%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x35f0…971ebacked 1WIN58c382.01$220 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$220.531647.8%151 W · 165 L+0.4wins0.00per pick48cpaid+0.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5b0c…d43abacked Virtus.pro35c376.68$130 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$246.6446247.8%221 W · 241 L-2.7wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-0.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4bf2…d280backed Virtus.pro35c375$131 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$243.7528549.5%141 W · 144 L+7.0wins+0.02per pick47cpaid+13.5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x041b…d3ebbacked 1WIN59c347.41$203 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$203.3531451.6%162 W · 152 L-6.9wins-0.02per pick54cpaid-8.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x56df…22c3backed 1WIN57c336.54$190 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$190.258946.1%41 W · 48 L-5.1wins-0.06per pick52cpaid-21.1%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x44c8…a9ffbacked Virtus.pro34c329.56$112 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$217.512835.7%10 W · 18 L-2.8wins-0.10per pick46cpaid-32.1%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x021a…d3aebacked Virtus.pro37c327.87$120 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$207.9824942.2%105 W · 144 L-0.1wins0.00per pick42cpaid+1.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa5a8…bf60backed 1WIN46c326.09$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15098856.1%554 W · 434 L+21.8wins+0.02per pick54cpaid+4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf7da…43d9backed 1WIN61c320$194 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$193.727056.3%152 W · 118 L-2.8wins-0.01per pick57cpaid-3.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x904e…0becbacked 1WIN36c309.61$112 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$112.344,89737.4%1,832 W · 3,065 L-245.2wins-0.05per pick42cpaid-32.1%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xa533…acacbacked 1WIN66c303.03$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20023658.5%138 W · 98 L+1.4wins+0.01per pick58cpaid+1.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xfb2e…cc6bbacked 1WIN66c303.03$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2002138.1%8 W · 13 L-2.6wins-0.13per pick51cpaid-22.8%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x6dd9…bfe8backed Virtus.pro43c300$129 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17110653.8%57 W · 49 L+6.4wins+0.06per pick48cpaid+15.2%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x86e9…4cdfbacked Virtus.pro47c299.43$141 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$158.736453.8%196 W · 168 L-8.0wins-0.02per pick56cpaid-6.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe401…5c4cbacked Virtus.pro50c299$150 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$149.513350.4%67 W · 66 L-0.8wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-4.4%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x3013…279bbacked Virtus.pro43c291.45$126 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$165.4519935.2%70 W · 129 L-18.2wins-0.09per pick44cpaid-18.4%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x589a…8dc5backed 1WIN53c274.57$146 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$145.5238838.7%150 W · 238 L-17.0wins-0.04per pick43cpaid-3.9%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xefa3…7585backed Virtus.pro36c263.91$95 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$168.8577351.2%396 W · 377 L+24.2wins+0.03per pick48cpaid+4.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x8248…c0b2backed 1WIN62c250$155 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15520750.7%105 W · 102 L-9.9wins-0.05per pick56cpaid-13.4%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xe592…74adbacked Virtus.pro34c249.99$85 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$164.997445.9%34 W · 40 L+1.2wins+0.02per pick44cpaid+2.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5513…2e2bbacked 1WIN39c246.8$96 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$95.92520%1 W · 4 L-1.0wins-0.19per pick39cpaid-58.3%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xa033…4938backed Virtus.pro35c241.99$85 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$157.298545.9%39 W · 46 L+2.2wins+0.03per pick43cpaid+1.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc7d0…1f8abacked 1WIN45c240.27$109 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$108.671,59146.6%741 W · 850 L+30.3wins+0.02per pick45cpaid-11.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xdc52…dfcebacked 1WIN65c240$156 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1567736.4%28 W · 49 L-9.3wins-0.12per pick48cpaid-27.7%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x6277…5a3fbacked Virtus.pro37c238.38$88 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$150.1863341.9%265 W · 368 L+9.9wins+0.02per pick40cpaid+4.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x24dc…25abbacked 1WIN58c234.41$136 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$136.320%0 W · 2 L-1.2wins-0.59per pick59cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xc0f1…8680backed Virtus.pro42c227.14$95 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$132.012,52043%1,084 W · 1,436 L+42.5wins+0.02per pick41cpaid-3.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in CS2 and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.