TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Ncaa Basketball · resolved market

Spread: Cincinnati Bearcats (-8.5)

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Cincinnati Bearcatsof Cincinnati Bearcats, Colorado Buffaloes
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Ncaa Basketballevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$793,040
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$793,367

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $793,040 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 42 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ncaa Basketball is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x4924…3782backed Cincinnati Bearcats51c775,425$394,795 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$380,630.6435945.1%162 W · 197 L-24.4wins-0.07per pick52cpaid-13.1%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xb45a…192cbacked Colorado Buffaloes50c400,000$200,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$200,00089645.9%411 W · 485 L-0.1wins0.00per pick46cpaid+0.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x006c…16eabacked Colorado Buffaloes48c200,000$96,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$96,0009652.1%50 W · 46 L+3.9wins+0.04per pick48cpaid+7.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xe90b…5da2backed Colorado Buffaloes48c149,737$71,874 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$71,873.9769142.8%296 W · 395 L+4.8wins+0.01per pick42cpaid-4.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xdcfe…44b5backed Colorado Buffaloes50c11,111$5,556 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,555.53154.8%17 W · 14 L+1.4wins+0.04per pick50cpaid+7.6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x2652…2a1dbacked Colorado Buffaloes50c7,358$3,656 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,656.274,84852.2%2,532 W · 2,316 L+139.2wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x9870…b9d3backed Cincinnati Bearcats52c2,889$1,500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,389.4221248.1%102 W · 110 L-4.4wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-4.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4366…c73ebacked Colorado Buffaloes48c2,500$1,200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,2007353.4%39 W · 34 L+3.6wins+0.05per pick48cpaid+10.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x9731…9b35backed Colorado Buffaloes52c2,336$1,215 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,214.851,63347.3%773 W · 860 L+25.5wins+0.02per pick46cpaid+2.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Colorado Buffaloes48c1,200$576 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5762,89650%1,448 W · 1,448 L+71.0wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+5.2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xee61…debfbacked Colorado Buffaloes50c1,088$549 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$548.9712,42249.8%6,191 W · 6,231 L+118.8wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+1.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf79a…56c2backed Colorado Buffaloes50c847.4$424 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$423.722250.9%113 W · 109 L+3.3wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+2.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Colorado Buffaloes49c780$382 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$382.485,55347.4%2,634 W · 2,919 L+26.3wins0.00per pick47cpaid-3.6%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0xf5a7…63e7backed Colorado Buffaloes51c627.45$320 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32055749.2%274 W · 283 L-7.4wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-1.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xcb43…3c74backed Cincinnati Bearcats50c535.1$268 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$267.5528539.6%113 W · 172 L-14.4wins-0.05per pick45cpaid-11.1%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x4aef…08f5backed Cincinnati Bearcats5c416.29$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$394.82114.3%3 W · 18 L+1.7wins+0.08per pick6cpaid+95.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x19ed…6dc8backed Colorado Buffaloes50c312.5$156 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$156.258747.1%41 W · 46 L-2.0wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-4.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6a72…33eebacked Colorado Buffaloes48c237.1$114 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$113.8121754.8%119 W · 98 L+15.3wins+0.07per pick48cpaid+15.2%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xda75…bbf9backed Colorado Buffaloes51c137.73$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7023754.9%130 W · 107 L+4.7wins+0.02per pick53cpaid+4.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x07bc…393abacked Colorado Buffaloes48c129.43$62 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$62.128351.8%43 W · 40 L+3.1wins+0.04per pick48cpaid+7.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6008…a80bbacked Colorado Buffaloes52c128.98$67 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$67.074,55250.1%2,279 W · 2,273 L-36.1wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-1.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4d48…48e0backed Colorado Buffaloes49c120.82$59 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$59.218046.7%84 W · 96 L-2.3wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-5.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x507e…beaebacked Cincinnati Bearcats48c100.5$48 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$52.265,94649.3%2,932 W · 3,014 L+163.0wins+0.03per pick47cpaid-0.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xed85…bfacbacked Colorado Buffaloes51c98.1$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$507846.2%36 W · 42 L-2.6wins-0.03per pick50cpaid-7.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x9aea…5590backed Colorado Buffaloes49c77.05$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.7515844.3%70 W · 88 L-6.5wins-0.04per pick48cpaid-10.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x6d72…c356backed Colorado Buffaloes50c70$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3519445.9%89 W · 105 L-7.9wins-0.04per pick50cpaid-5.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x4d85…2560backed Colorado Buffaloes49c57.69$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.2718646.2%86 W · 100 L-5.4wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe5ea…52dbbacked Colorado Buffaloes51c57.06$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$293053.3%16 W · 14 L+1.3wins+0.04per pick49cpaid+5.4%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x3e7d…d07abacked Colorado Buffaloes50c52.24$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.12250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick50cpaid0%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc5f7…db44backed Colorado Buffaloes50c45$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.5666.7%4 W · 2 L+1.1wins+0.18per pick48cpaid+39.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x1e68…3215backed Cincinnati Bearcats50c40$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$202458.3%14 W · 10 L+1.7wins+0.07per pick51cpaid+11.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xe33c…6006backed Colorado Buffaloes51c39.58$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$205648.2%27 W · 29 L-1.2wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-5.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe85d…95d8backed Colorado Buffaloes51c39.41$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$204755.3%26 W · 21 L+1.3wins+0.03per pick52cpaid+6.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x085d…5302backed Cincinnati Bearcats52c38.49$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.4913550.4%68 W · 67 L+0.7wins+0.01per pick50cpaid-2.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x57d5…0bbdbacked Cincinnati Bearcats50c38.27$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.2357335.6%204 W · 369 L-27.3wins-0.05per pick40cpaid-20.1%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x7216…0d67backed Cincinnati Bearcats50c34.12$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.0618241.2%75 W · 107 L-6.5wins-0.04per pick45cpaid-15.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x7825…89a0backed Colorado Buffaloes50c29.23$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.62425%1 W · 3 L-1.1wins-0.28per pick53cpaid-62.1%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x4ba2…8f7cbacked Colorado Buffaloes49c21.67$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.627844.9%35 W · 43 L-3.1wins-0.04per pick49cpaid-8.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x10b0…8525backed Cincinnati Bearcats50c21$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.514151.1%72 W · 69 L+3.5wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+6.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xbbe8…9262backed Cincinnati Bearcats51c20.79$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.212100%2 W · 0 L+1.0wins+0.49per pick51cpaid+96.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x4192…722fbacked Colorado Buffaloes50c20$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1010%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.50per pick50cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6e92…18c4backed Colorado Buffaloes50c20$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$102626.9%7 W · 19 L-6.7wins-0.26per pick53cpaid-49.2%equal weight35-0.13 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.