Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 32°C on May 3?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x8d13e9c42a48c137d11af5ac2c4fc7e2b82bd517b090081da95a4b2675fcfab5
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $20,689
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $22,911
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $20,689 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 65 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x7735…4740backed Yes | 27c | 1,302$348 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$348.25 | 259 | 33.6%87 W · 172 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5d4c…830abacked Yes | 5c | 200$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 61 | 4.9%3 W · 58 L | -1.5wins | -0.02per pick | 7cpaid | -62.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 13c | 186.3$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.17 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe49f…b083backed Yes | 43c | 175.19$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.46 | 188 | 37.2%70 W · 118 L | +5.0wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7b20…bc23backed No | 64c | 156$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.16 | 811 | 65.8%534 W · 277 L | -37.1wins | -0.05per pick | 70cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8f13…daaebacked Yes | 22c | 150.42$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.94 | 633 | 23.9%151 W · 482 L | -20.0wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -45%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xad8a…9d7bbacked Yes | 48c | 135$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.52 | 75 | 58.7%44 W · 31 L | +2.6wins | +0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 36c | 128.99$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.44 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7c48…6b72backed Yes | 39c | 128.19$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.99 | 452 | 38.5%174 W · 278 L | -14.1wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 10c | 128$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.65 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x0f60…026abacked No | 56c | 121.12$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.02 | 999 | 63.5%634 W · 365 L | -3.0wins | 0.00per pick | 64cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x93ed…35c4backed Yes | 45c | 110.41$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 178 | 61.2%109 W · 69 L | -8.0wins | -0.04per pick | 66cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2612…5289backed No | 67c | 109.37$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.83 | 3,048 | 40.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L | -121.5wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8215…1279backed Yes | 13c | 109$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.48 | 387 | 58.7%227 W · 160 L | +3.5wins | +0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5264…9a63backed Yes | 41c | 100$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41 | 740 | 23.9%177 W · 563 L | +23.6wins | +0.03per pick | 21cpaid | +23.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x354d…eb8fbacked Yes | 15c | 100$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 701 | 33.5%235 W · 466 L | +13.4wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x35c4…d144backed No | 66c | 99.99$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.74 | 1,255 | 62.5%785 W · 470 L | +99.5wins | +0.08per pick | 55cpaid | +16.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x1440…7712backed Yes | 31c | 99.98$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.99 | 90 | 35.6%32 W · 58 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x71b5…d067backed Yes | 20c | 94.62$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.84 | 82 | 46.3%38 W · 44 L | +2.9wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1717…1f7cbacked No | 64c | 75.43$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.15 | 65 | 36.9%24 W · 41 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -39.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 37c | 74.97$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.71 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x10b7…3604backed No | 69c | 72.54$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.54 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -1.2wins | -0.15per pick | 40cpaid | -62.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7554…0b84backed Yes | 42c | 70.63$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 140 | 40.7%57 W · 83 L | +4.9wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdedd…17e1backed No | 62c | 60.79$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.87 | 2,432 | 60.4%1,470 W · 962 L | +30.2wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x040b…bbc5backed Yes | 26c | 60.42$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.91 | 54 | 44.4%24 W · 30 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xde8b…612fbacked No | 76c | 60.28$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.69 | 29 | 82.8%24 W · 5 L | +5.8wins | +0.20per pick | 63cpaid | +33.3%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xb68c…a863backed Yes | 25c | 60$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 39c | 60$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.5 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 40c | 54.37$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7a30…37a6backed Yes | 30c | 50.72$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 409 | 35%143 W · 266 L | -3.9wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1c8f…de8abacked Yes | 23c | 50$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.5 | 166 | 26.5%44 W · 122 L | -5.0wins | -0.03per pick | 30cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 44c | 50$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa98a…a5a8backed No | 63c | 49.77$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.63 | 2,015 | 67.7%1,365 W · 650 L | +1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 68cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe4f0…6450backed No | 68c | 49.25$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.6 | 141 | 19.1%27 W · 114 L | -3.1wins | -0.02per pick | 21cpaid | -30.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa259…6597backed No | 63c | 49$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.25 | 995 | 71.1%707 W · 288 L | +22.0wins | +0.02per pick | 69cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeb7f…0abbbacked No | 63c | 47.12$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.64 | 189 | 48.1%91 W · 98 L | -3.0wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa708…9321backed No | 67c | 46.4$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.34 | 1,299 | 57.5%747 W · 552 L | +11.8wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x06c2…184fbacked No | 59c | 45.32$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.58 | 38 | 42.1%16 W · 22 L | +3.4wins | +0.09per pick | 33cpaid | +68.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4f4b…0b44backed Yes | 44c | 44.25$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.47 | 17 | 29.4%5 W · 12 L | -3.4wins | -0.20per pick | 50cpaid | -48.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xea6b…5ac2backed Yes | 45c | 44.02$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 534 | 37.3%199 W · 335 L | -29.9wins | -0.06per pick | 43cpaid | -22.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4560…8ce8backed Yes | 27c | 42.1$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.2 | 350 | 58.3%204 W · 146 L | +4.8wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x11a4…f434backed No | 62c | 41$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.67 | 475 | 69.5%330 W · 145 L | +6.2wins | +0.01per pick | 68cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2acf…f9bbbacked Yes | 36c | 36.57$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.17 | 1,227 | 33.9%416 W · 811 L | +45.1wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb664…abbdbacked No | 58c | 34.48$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.48 | 446 | 46.2%206 W · 240 L | -16.0wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb70d…253abacked Yes | 44c | 34.07$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.99 | 151 | 52.3%79 W · 72 L | +4.8wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9410…9160backed No | 60c | 33.46$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.46 | 420 | 49%206 W · 214 L | -15.9wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2a25…8055backed No | 61c | 33.36$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.01 | 197 | 64.5%127 W · 70 L | -8.0wins | -0.04per pick | 69cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x356b…1c3fbacked Yes | 37c | 32.24$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.98 | 591 | 25.9%153 W · 438 L | -3.1wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7903…57f6backed No | 61c | 32$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.56 | 277 | 69%191 W · 86 L | +3.7wins | +0.01per pick | 68cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 64c | 31$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.16 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa8ae…7f3ebacked Yes | 36c | 31$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.16 | 191 | 23%44 W · 147 L | +3.5wins | +0.02per pick | 21cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfaf6…8b41backed Yes | 40c | 30$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | -3.0wins | -0.20per pick | 47cpaid | -47.6%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xd50c…3360backed Yes | 39c | 29.99$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.7 | 281 | 42%118 W · 163 L | +8.7wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0175…4264backed No | 64c | 28.78$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.36 | 97 | 53.6%52 W · 45 L | -12.2wins | -0.13per pick | 66cpaid | -19.8%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x5c38…f194backed No | 41c | 28$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.66 | 2,517 | 47.2%1,188 W · 1,329 L | +52.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7e4b…ac6bbacked No | 65c | 27$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.43 | 358 | 54.7%196 W · 162 L | -13.7wins | -0.04per pick | 59cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8bca…e136backed Yes | 41c | 25.53$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.37 | 445 | 36.2%161 W · 284 L | +13.0wins | +0.03per pick | 33cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbd85…7a3dbacked No | 59c | 25$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.15 | 1,050 | 51.2%538 W · 512 L | -99.4wins | -0.09per pick | 61cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 54c | 24.02$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.05 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3061…d998backed No | 71c | 21$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.16per pick | 66cpaid | -28.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2754…1668backed No | 76c | 20.86$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.02 | 1,018 | 60.2%613 W · 405 L | +13.5wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3d1d…9e61backed No | 58c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.35 | 2,870 | 64.8%1,860 W · 1,010 L | -32.8wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…dd60backed No | 58c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.45 | 3,301 | 65%2,147 W · 1,154 L | -38.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5848…1e49backed No | 64c | 19.99$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.3 | 863 | 62.9%543 W · 320 L | -1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 63cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 64c | 19.5$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.94 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 32°C on May 3?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 29°C on May 3?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 30°C on May 3?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 31°C on May 3?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 33°C on May 3?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 34°C on May 3?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.