Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 33°C on May 3?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x26a54b3137d7893f8bd56f6f6c51fc30ba2e670975c22374e3629d59f77ddf10
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $14,248
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $16,559
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $14,248 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 60 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x3204…b1dbbacked Yes | 34c | 951.17$322 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$629.42 | 62 | 27.4%17 W · 45 L | -3.0wins | -0.05per pick | 32cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8f13…daaebacked No | 22c | 300.1$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.93 | 633 | 23.9%151 W · 482 L | -20.0wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -45%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x17f0…20febacked No | 4c | 268.75$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.32 | 151 | 6.6%10 W · 141 L | -3.2wins | -0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -53.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeb7f…0abbbacked Yes | 34c | 228.6$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$151.16 | 189 | 48.1%91 W · 98 L | -3.0wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa708…9321backed No | 36c | 196.71$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.25 | 1,299 | 57.5%747 W · 552 L | +11.8wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe49f…b083backed Yes | 26c | 179.72$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$133.67 | 188 | 37.2%70 W · 118 L | +5.0wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdedd…17e1backed No | 43c | 176.51$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.66 | 2,432 | 60.4%1,470 W · 962 L | +30.2wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x06c2…184fbacked Yes | 33c | 166.93$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$112.35 | 38 | 42.1%16 W · 22 L | +3.4wins | +0.09per pick | 33cpaid | +68.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3602…98dfbacked Yes | 27c | 149.99$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108.99 | 54 | 37%20 W · 34 L | +5.3wins | +0.10per pick | 27cpaid | +34%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2612…5289backed No | 42c | 140.98$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.56 | 3,048 | 40.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L | -121.5wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x958a…9f65backed No | 27c | 140$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.16 | 558 | 55.2%308 W · 250 L | -10.0wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5c38…f194backed No | 34c | 127.95$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.08 | 2,517 | 47.2%1,188 W · 1,329 L | +52.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0f60…026abacked No | 73c | 123.1$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.45 | 999 | 63.5%634 W · 365 L | -3.0wins | 0.00per pick | 64cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd11c…ff7dbacked Yes | 68c | 110$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.16 | 347 | 48.7%169 W · 178 L | +13.5wins | +0.04per pick | 45cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 58c | 108.16$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.72 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 28c | 105.85$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.53 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7c1c…0b5fbacked Yes | 32c | 100$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68 | 38 | 15.8%6 W · 32 L | -3.6wins | -0.09per pick | 25cpaid | -30.3%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfd8e…aea4backed No | 68c | 100$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68 | 2,268 | 79.5%1,803 W · 465 L | +98.4wins | +0.04per pick | 75cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x35c4…d144backed No | 54c | 100$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.8 | 1,255 | 62.5%785 W · 470 L | +99.5wins | +0.08per pick | 55cpaid | +16.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x108a…8159backed Yes | 28c | 80.16$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.38 | 587 | 32.9%193 W · 394 L | +34.4wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | +15.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xae68…064abacked No | 73c | 75.35$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.08 | 2,555 | 63.8%1,631 W · 924 L | +38.4wins | +0.02per pick | 62cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x35af…8e95backed No | 67c | 74.06$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.62 | 77 | 62.3%48 W · 29 L | -2.0wins | -0.03per pick | 65cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcb26…0e22backed Yes | 63c | 64.73$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.83 | 391 | 57%223 W · 168 L | -6.0wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8842…dfa7backed Yes | 33c | 61.26$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.26 | 452 | 36.5%165 W · 287 L | +20.0wins | +0.04per pick | 32cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf51b…ca1bbacked No | 31c | 60$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.6 | 1,274 | 34%433 W · 841 L | +46.9wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x72a4…9240backed No | 62c | 54.35$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.78 | 35 | 71.4%25 W · 10 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 71cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x966c…087fbacked Yes | 43c | 54.25$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.93 | 441 | 47.4%209 W · 232 L | -17.5wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1798…1ce9backed Yes | 28c | 53.84$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.84 | 2,428 | 44.9%1,091 W · 1,337 L | -31.5wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5127…6f96backed No | 58c | 51.7$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.99 | 123 | 74%91 W · 32 L | +6.4wins | +0.05per pick | 69cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa98a…a5a8backed No | 71c | 51.57$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.65 | 2,015 | 67.7%1,365 W · 650 L | +1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 68cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2986…b3a9backed No | 30c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2,995 | 31.4%940 W · 2,055 L | +41.6wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x615b…2ba8backed No | 62c | 49.99$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.99 | 34 | 67.6%23 W · 11 L | -1.9wins | -0.06per pick | 73cpaid | -8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked No | 70c | 48.97$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.11 | 3,474 | 33.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L | -175.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x93ed…35c4backed No | 72c | 48.52$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 178 | 61.2%109 W · 69 L | -8.0wins | -0.04per pick | 66cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1c06…62e3backed Yes | 52c | 42.52$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.23 | 101 | 63.4%64 W · 37 L | +8.7wins | +0.09per pick | 55cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8215…1279backed No | 38c | 41.22$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.68 | 387 | 58.7%227 W · 160 L | +3.5wins | +0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1440…7712backed Yes | 42c | 40.53$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.35 | 90 | 35.6%32 W · 58 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0619…0379backed No | 68c | 36.87$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.99 | 548 | 57.5%315 W · 233 L | +13.1wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9410…9160backed No | 61c | 35.94$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.99 | 420 | 49%206 W · 214 L | -15.9wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbc60…c377backed No | 71c | 33.46$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.68 | 32 | 40.6%13 W · 19 L | -3.6wins | -0.11per pick | 52cpaid | -35.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4560…8ce8backed Yes | 56c | 33$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.68 | 350 | 58.3%204 W · 146 L | +4.8wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 64c | 31$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.84 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8d65…da6ebacked Yes | 56c | 26.61$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.61 | 30 | 70%21 W · 9 L | +1.0wins | +0.03per pick | 67cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3d1d…9e61backed No | 56c | 25$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.02 | 2,870 | 64.8%1,860 W · 1,010 L | -32.8wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…dd60backed No | 56c | 25$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.04 | 3,301 | 65%2,147 W · 1,154 L | -38.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcaaa…da37backed Yes | 62c | 24.69$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.29 | 446 | 59%263 W · 183 L | -2.4wins | -0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x901e…7389backed No | 74c | 24$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.76 | 86 | 70.9%61 W · 25 L | -3.5wins | -0.04per pick | 75cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2a25…8055backed No | 73c | 23.34$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.97 | 197 | 64.5%127 W · 70 L | -8.0wins | -0.04per pick | 69cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4184…c863backed Yes | 62c | 23.23$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.92 | 899 | 51.6%464 W · 435 L | -40.0wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x75b0…e7b7backed No | 70c | 22.96$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.07 | 1,585 | 78.5%1,244 W · 341 L | +39.7wins | +0.03per pick | 76cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb684…343cbacked No | 56c | 22.55$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.63 | 169 | 68%115 W · 54 L | +7.9wins | +0.05per pick | 63cpaid | +7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb732…6900backed Yes | 64c | 21.11$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.56 | 412 | 58.3%240 W · 172 L | -2.3wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 62c | 20.81$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.84 | 3,366 | 31.1%1,047 W · 2,319 L | -34.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5848…1e49backed No | 63c | 20$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.65 | 863 | 62.9%543 W · 320 L | -1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 63cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe34d…41f0backed Yes | 64c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.25 | 121 | 47.9%58 W · 63 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcd9b…492abacked No | 67c | 19.26$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.9 | 173 | 65.3%113 W · 60 L | -2.5wins | -0.01per pick | 67cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 62c | 17.76$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.01 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf1ed…b814backed No | 67c | 17.04$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.38 | 24 | 58.3%14 W · 10 L | -1.6wins | -0.07per pick | 65cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb15e…7c54backed No | 64c | 17.03$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.9 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | -0.5wins | -0.04per pick | 62cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ec8…99d2backed No | 65c | 15.39$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 833 | 60.7%506 W · 327 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 33°C on May 3?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 29°C on May 3?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 30°C on May 3?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 31°C on May 3?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 32°C on May 3?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 34°C on May 3?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.