Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 100-101°F on August 13?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x8d28831f38939d95c3ddf0ae1923d8e47c91524041d21ee9c2d304d734dd28c9
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $17,362
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $19,403
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $17,362 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 101 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x441a…e9c7backed No | 50c | 2,219$1,111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,111.33 | 395 | 43.5%172 W · 223 L | -12.7wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5500…b4f6backed Yes | 43c | 1,733$743 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$989.5 | 175 | 36%63 W · 112 L | +9.2wins | +0.05per pick | 31cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x56b3…3fa2backed Yes | 52c | 1,160$602 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$557.71 | 895 | 44.7%400 W · 495 L | +30.5wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7e9c…f3a8backed Yes | 51c | 899.31$457 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$441.84 | 602 | 36.5%220 W · 382 L | -2.4wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd251…4d37backed Yes | 65c | 862.24$560 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$302.13 | 1,697 | 42.4%720 W · 977 L | +56.9wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9f6a…eb61backed Yes | 65c | 856$556 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$300.12 | 103 | 42.7%44 W · 59 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | +121.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbddc…5d4fbacked Yes | 66c | 757.85$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$257.85 | 644 | 46.4%299 W · 345 L | +19.3wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed No | 44c | 655.44$286 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$285.55 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcf37…993fbacked No | 45c | 435.85$196 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$195.77 | 656 | 25.8%169 W · 487 L | -13.2wins | -0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -35.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed No | 21c | 362.42$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.97 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb84c…e169backed No | 36c | 337.25$121 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$121.44 | 417 | 52%217 W · 200 L | -11.4wins | -0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe40a…e4a2backed No | 32c | 310.87$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.71 | 1,316 | 56.2%740 W · 576 L | -18.6wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe086…0450backed No | 35c | 300$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105 | 1,243 | 52.5%652 W · 591 L | -18.7wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6fb4…76e9backed No | 37c | 215.26$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.92 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -48.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf73f…ee53backed No | 34c | 200$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68 | 2,950 | 33.6%992 W · 1,958 L | +9.9wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | +4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5203…b975backed Yes | 79c | 200$158 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.08 | 186 | 41.4%77 W · 109 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7300…e52cbacked No | 36c | 198.88$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.04 | 2,214 | 20.7%458 W · 1,756 L | -60.8wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed No | 51c | 191.92$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.8 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb5e8…a5f9backed Yes | 43c | 186.04$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$106.04 | 30 | 40%12 W · 18 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x24e8…4546backed No | 39c | 179.62$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.43 | 3,065 | 53.7%1,647 W · 1,418 L | -97.2wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x229c…b966backed No | 22c | 172.02$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.98 | 1,567 | 37.2%583 W · 984 L | +243.6wins | +0.16per pick | 22cpaid | +25.1%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x122c…fbedbacked No | 33c | 168.79$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.05 | 771 | 51%393 W · 378 L | +23.7wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 31c | 167.45$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.59 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 29c | 167.13$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.74 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x180e…29dfbacked Yes | 47c | 165.2$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87.56 | 508 | 60.4%307 W · 201 L | +18.3wins | +0.04per pick | 57cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb259…9207backed No | 35c | 150$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.5 | 110 | 27.3%30 W · 80 L | -22.3wins | -0.20per pick | 48cpaid | -40.6%equal weight | 32-0.17 edge/pick |
| 0x6120…f1febacked Yes | 48c | 123$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.96 | 827 | 42.8%354 W · 473 L | +2.7wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x379a…4b1abacked Yes | 48c | 120$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.64 | 429 | 48%206 W · 223 L | +8.3wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 44c | 113.89$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.6 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x90ae…2475backed No | 48c | 100$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48 | 571 | 50.4%288 W · 283 L | +4.0wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5695…60e9backed Yes | 49c | 100$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51 | 192 | 52.1%100 W · 92 L | -2.3wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4476…c5fcbacked No | 35c | 99.99$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 425 | 47.5%202 W · 223 L | -16.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbbb7…a11abacked No | 21c | 97.49$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.2 | 1,196 | 57.9%693 W · 503 L | +47.6wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 66c | 95.72$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.69 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xebdb…5ac4backed Yes | 47c | 93.36$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.15 | 850 | 49.8%423 W · 427 L | -10.4wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked No | 20c | 92.56$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.39 | 799 | 47.9%383 W · 416 L | -24.6wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -20%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 39c | 90$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x012f…400dbacked Yes | 46c | 80$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.2 | 348 | 31%108 W · 240 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 78c | 77.35$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.11 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x304b…a619backed No | 57c | 70$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.9 | 275 | 52%143 W · 132 L | +6.2wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd717…3b85backed No | 20c | 69.19$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.98 | 2,050 | 57.4%1,177 W · 873 L | +72.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd7c2…e1e0backed Yes | 47c | 62.32$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.03 | 172 | 51.7%89 W · 83 L | +3.5wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe7c6…2b25backed No | 32c | 61.74$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 329 | 58.7%193 W · 136 L | +17.9wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3f0b…d571backed Yes | 75c | 57.08$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.12 | 2,225 | 49.2%1,094 W · 1,131 L | -12.0wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1201…005bbacked No | 23c | 56.61$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.87 | 167 | 9.6%16 W · 151 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -32.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcd91…32b8backed No | 31c | 56$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.36 | 1,428 | 52.1%744 W · 684 L | -21.9wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x28ea…7367backed Yes | 62c | 55.94$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.26 | 1,896 | 61.5%1,166 W · 730 L | -5.9wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x36ff…f2a6backed Yes | 39c | 51.28$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.28 | 621 | 37.7%234 W · 387 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 29c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.6 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbc1d…ead3backed Yes | 66c | 50$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17 | 25 | 44%11 W · 14 L | -2.6wins | -0.11per pick | 55cpaid | -23.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1d69…7a63backed Yes | 47c | 50$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.5 | 1,075 | 54.8%589 W · 486 L | -17.0wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7ec3…d814backed Yes | 61c | 50$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.5 | 27 | 48.1%13 W · 14 L | +1.0wins | +0.04per pick | 45cpaid | +13.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc179…5cdebacked Yes | 62c | 50$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19 | 289 | 46%133 W · 156 L | +14.6wins | +0.05per pick | 41cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb87f…f7d4backed Yes | 47c | 49.55$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.26 | 149 | 57.7%86 W · 63 L | +6.1wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3e20…dddcbacked Yes | 49c | 47.92$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.44 | 285 | 46.3%132 W · 153 L | -17.3wins | -0.06per pick | 52cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1bbd…3bedbacked No | 52c | 47.87$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.05 | 375 | 41.6%156 W · 219 L | -52.4wins | -0.14per pick | 56cpaid | -28%equal weight | 35-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xa9b7…f43cbacked No | 47c | 47.39$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.47 | 308 | 34.4%106 W · 202 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1f85…7b02backed Yes | 72c | 46.52$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.98 | 2,068 | 55.9%1,156 W · 912 L | +44.2wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf333…ba41backed No | 52c | 46.04$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.94 | 869 | 49.8%433 W · 436 L | -24.0wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8845…360ebacked No | 46c | 45.61$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.94 | 169 | 35.5%60 W · 109 L | -34.5wins | -0.20per pick | 56cpaid | -36.4%equal weight | 30-0.18 edge/pick |
| 0x745a…64e8backed No | 41c | 45.13$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.4 | 401 | 62.6%251 W · 150 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x831a…ad82backed No | 51c | 43$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.83 | 196 | 48.5%95 W · 101 L | +9.9wins | +0.05per pick | 43cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd436…18a9backed Yes | 63c | 40$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.8 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.15per pick | 52cpaid | +40.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 48c | 40$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.2 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2572…80dbbacked Yes | 69c | 37.58$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.71 | 144 | 46.5%67 W · 77 L | -3.3wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x38a1…3154backed No | 59c | 33$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.54 | 2,067 | 74.6%1,542 W · 525 L | +23.8wins | +0.01per pick | 73cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa47e…261cbacked Yes | 77c | 32.13$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.54 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | -2.9wins | -0.18per pick | 74cpaid | -25.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x83c5…0a0dbacked Yes | 40c | 31.75$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.05 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +2.4wins | +0.22per pick | 33cpaid | +80.7%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa95c…171dbacked Yes | 43c | 30.84$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.66 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8827…5d62backed No | 43c | 30.69$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.3 | 1,772 | 50.5%895 W · 877 L | +43.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2bfd…c4cdbacked No | 33c | 30.64$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.11 | 21 | 66.7%14 W · 7 L | +0.9wins | +0.04per pick | 62cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdfbd…5a6cbacked Yes | 72c | 30$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.4 | 635 | 38.4%244 W · 391 L | +12.2wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe695…538ebacked Yes | 80c | 30$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6 | 818 | 55%450 W · 368 L | +1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa755…6c5bbacked Yes | 77c | 30$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7 | 125 | 30.4%38 W · 87 L | -8.4wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -22.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xcb6b…c7f7backed Yes | 51c | 29.38$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.38 | 139 | 43.9%61 W · 78 L | -12.6wins | -0.09per pick | 53cpaid | -25.7%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x39c3…e155backed Yes | 52c | 29.02$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.02 | 254 | 47.6%121 W · 133 L | -18.8wins | -0.07per pick | 55cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xac22…363ebacked Yes | 80c | 25$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 142 | 43.7%62 W · 80 L | -7.1wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd0de…3b38backed No | 40c | 25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 124 | 73.4%91 W · 33 L | +6.2wins | +0.05per pick | 68cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb699…4e20backed No | 52c | 25$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 213 | 52.1%111 W · 102 L | +1.9wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd90e…03b6backed Yes | 65c | 24.66$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.54 | 1,148 | 49.6%569 W · 579 L | -34.3wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0506…bc49backed Yes | 49c | 24.24$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.36 | 56 | 58.9%33 W · 23 L | +1.6wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +23.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf184…d472backed Yes | 69c | 23.13$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.28 | 97 | 69.1%67 W · 30 L | +4.2wins | +0.04per pick | 65cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x942e…be27backed No | 51c | 22.19$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.42 | 2,010 | 61.5%1,237 W · 773 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xca75…0a64backed No | 58c | 22.04$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.84 | 1,010 | 58.1%587 W · 423 L | -34.0wins | -0.03per pick | 61cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1894…a936backed Yes | 64c | 22$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.99 | 667 | 58%387 W · 280 L | +48.0wins | +0.07per pick | 51cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xffd0…cd07backed No | 49c | 22$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.78 | 2,311 | 57.7%1,334 W · 977 L | -19.0wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3653…ef74backed Yes | 75c | 21.87$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.47 | 2,124 | 57.4%1,220 W · 904 L | +69.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7eb5…9400backed No | 55c | 21.33$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.8 | 527 | 58.8%310 W · 217 L | +13.2wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x655c…4420backed No | 49c | 21$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.29 | 895 | 57.2%512 W · 383 L | +7.7wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x14a0…d8e3backed Yes | 54c | 20.41$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.33 | 41 | 53.7%22 W · 19 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3c18…32c3backed No | 51c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.2 | 1,043 | 62.9%656 W · 387 L | -11.9wins | -0.01per pick | 64cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x29ef…dddabacked No | 59c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.8 | 182 | 47.3%86 W · 96 L | -10.7wins | -0.06per pick | 53cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x813f…26ecbacked No | 57c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.4 | 809 | 62.1%502 W · 307 L | -22.9wins | -0.03per pick | 65cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf651…86b1backed Yes | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 61 | 57.4%35 W · 26 L | -3.4wins | -0.06per pick | 63cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0558…a8cdbacked No | 51c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.17 | 118 | 67.8%80 W · 38 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 68cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7b25…e4bebacked Yes | 69c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.2 | 127 | 58.3%74 W · 53 L | -4.2wins | -0.03per pick | 62cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa0dc…64d0backed Yes | 76c | 19$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.56 | 10 | 90%9 W · 1 L | +1.6wins | +0.16per pick | 74cpaid | +22.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x351a…f836backed Yes | 71c | 18$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.22 | 286 | 49.3%141 W · 145 L | +7.3wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x16c7…22cdbacked Yes | 68c | 17.48$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.6 | 2,075 | 58.9%1,223 W · 852 L | +102.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9631…a38cbacked Yes | 63c | 16.1$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.02 | 497 | 50.3%250 W · 247 L | +20.9wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +24.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 100-101°F on August 13?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 102-103°F on August 13?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 98-99°F on August 13?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.