South American Leagues · resolved market
Will Deportivo Toluca FC win on 2025-12-11?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x8d3500a6745c94bf2ee9915476a65ed4ebdab999350bd675d73eaef578a61dc5
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- South American Leaguesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $12,700
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $13,024
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $12,700 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 37 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in South American Leagues is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xe60a…6a47backed Yes | 27c | 4,660$1,268 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,268.3 | 234 | 35%82 W · 152 L | -2.7wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed No | 78c | 3,162$2,480 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$681.67 | 8,107 | 48.7%3,948 W · 4,159 L | +26.8wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked No | 73c | 2,154$1,568 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$585.14 | 1,091 | 55.6%607 W · 484 L | -19.8wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf971…0a57backed Yes | 23c | 1,078$251 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250.55 | 151 | 28.5%43 W · 108 L | -3.8wins | -0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf42a…8470backed Yes | 3c | 1,000$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 51 | 11.8%6 W · 45 L | -3.3wins | -0.07per pick | 18cpaid | -51.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x29c0…efaabacked No | 71c | 888.82$632 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$256.63 | 816 | 51.6%421 W · 395 L | +12.0wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2da0…2f48backed Yes | 26c | 767.92$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$199.66 | 42 | 40.5%17 W · 25 L | -3.8wins | -0.09per pick | 49cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9731…9b35backed No | 74c | 738.51$546 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$192.87 | 266 | 59.8%159 W · 107 L | +12.0wins | +0.04per pick | 55cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe225…6d19backed Yes | 28c | 703.18$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x908a…ad16backed No | 77c | 265.22$204 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61 | 636 | 44.7%284 W · 352 L | -2.0wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x823d…3d44backed Yes | 14c | 216.93$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | -0.7wins | -0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -19.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1f3f…959bbacked Yes | 26c | 180.77$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47 | 123 | 31.7%39 W · 84 L | -2.6wins | -0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x040d…3527backed Yes | 28c | 178.89$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x23fe…9788backed No | 78c | 136.34$106 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.24 | 73 | 60.3%44 W · 29 L | +5.4wins | +0.07per pick | 53cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf86c…abfabacked No | 74c | 135.14$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.14 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +35.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb4f9…5526backed Yes | 26c | 121$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.46 | 19 | 57.9%11 W · 8 L | +2.5wins | +0.13per pick | 45cpaid | +48.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb82b…3a09backed No | 72c | 100$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -23.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3459…808abacked Yes | 23c | 100$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 22 | 31.8%7 W · 15 L | +0.6wins | +0.03per pick | 29cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0362…449ebacked No | 74c | 100$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26 | 516 | 54.8%283 W · 233 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…e8a2backed No | 75c | 89$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.93 | 373 | 55.2%206 W · 167 L | +7.5wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf292…b60cbacked No | 75c | 84.61$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.09 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 64cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5699…418dbacked No | 75c | 82.38$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.3 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.20per pick | 70cpaid | -33.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf102…1348backed Yes | 25c | 79.96$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.99 | 318 | 27%86 W · 232 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 28cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbc59…8041backed Yes | 27c | 74.07$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3fa2…6f8cbacked Yes | 27c | 72$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.44 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -2.4wins | -0.24per pick | 54cpaid | -21.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x03de…4bfdbacked No | 73c | 66$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.04 | 43 | 62.8%27 W · 16 L | +1.1wins | +0.03per pick | 60cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x92c3…65c5backed Yes | 26c | 49.18$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa00f…8e56backed Yes | 26c | 40$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.4 | 27 | 51.9%14 W · 13 L | +2.2wins | +0.08per pick | 44cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9acf…bd74backed No | 74c | 40$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.4 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +1.3wins | +0.22per pick | 61cpaid | +37.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x42ce…d2cbbacked No | 75c | 33.33$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.33 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -1.7wins | -0.14per pick | 56cpaid | -36.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0a17…5524backed No | 73c | 33$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.8 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.27per pick | 73cpaid | +36.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0ecd…b2c0backed No | 74c | 31$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.06 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc10d…4532backed No | 73c | 28$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.56 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.16per pick | 59cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x426a…128bbacked No | 75c | 21$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.25 | 24 | 45.8%11 W · 13 L | -2.2wins | -0.09per pick | 55cpaid | -26%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8c82…05cfbacked No | 72c | 19.99$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.6 | 44 | 50%22 W · 22 L | -1.7wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaa48…9062backed No | 73c | 17$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.59 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.5wins | +0.39per pick | 62cpaid | +75.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7483…96a6backed No | 74c | 17$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.42 | 12 | 83.3%10 W · 2 L | +3.3wins | +0.28per pick | 56cpaid | +58.4%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Deportivo Toluca FC win on 2025-12-11?this page
- Will Tigres de la UANL vs. Deportivo Toluca FC end in a draw?No won
- Will Tigres de la UANL win on 2025-12-11?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.