TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Tennis · resolved market

Wuning: Fajing Sun vs Justin Boulais

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Fajing Sunof Fajing Sun, Justin Boulais
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$100,202
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$122,267

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $100,202 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 108 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Tennis
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x204f…5e14backed Justin Boulais19c10,975$2,038 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,038.018,21745.5%3,737 W · 4,480 L+166.6wins+0.02per pick43cpaid-16.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd41a…fd60backed Fajing Sun58c10,579$6,120 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,458.898151.9%42 W · 39 L+4.2wins+0.05per pick47cpaid+133.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xcfd9…648dbacked Justin Boulais42c8,662$3,638 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,638.063534.3%12 W · 23 L-0.7wins-0.02per pick36cpaid-8.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2005…75eabacked Justin Boulais13c6,224$821 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$821.1711,43543.4%4,959 W · 6,476 L+17.8wins0.00per pick43cpaid-20.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6814…a9e7backed Fajing Sun74c4,706$3,476 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,230.783,07244.9%1,378 W · 1,694 L-30.9wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-23%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xde9f…d43cbacked Justin Boulais23c4,600$1,040 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,039.686,59950.7%3,343 W · 3,256 L+259.7wins+0.04per pick47cpaid-4.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x972b…78babacked Justin Boulais16c4,015$624 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$624.152,98239.1%1,167 W · 1,815 L-109.1wins-0.04per pick43cpaid-30.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xdc87…ea3bbacked Fajing Sun54c3,522$1,912 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,610.333346.2%154 W · 179 L+1.8wins+0.01per pick46cpaid+4.7%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x6a84…dd32backed Justin Boulais20c3,032$593 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$592.74055%22 W · 18 L+4.3wins+0.11per pick44cpaid+14.2%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x160b…4296backed Justin Boulais45c2,445$1,107 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,106.611,65849.9%828 W · 830 L+7.9wins0.00per pick49cpaid+0.3%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x9c76…c926backed Justin Boulais43c1,764$766 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$765.74,07639.7%1,620 W · 2,456 L+93.7wins+0.02per pick37cpaid+7.2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x42c9…9623backed Justin Boulais24c1,553$375 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$374.834,70349.4%2,323 W · 2,380 L+166.5wins+0.04per pick46cpaid-3.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xdf37…8b49backed Justin Boulais46c1,060$488 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$488.0639534.4%136 W · 259 L-10.9wins-0.03per pick37cpaid-12.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x9797…c193backed Fajing Sun56c1,002$561 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$440.832552%13 W · 12 L+0.6wins+0.02per pick50cpaid-2.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa8bb…e40fbacked Fajing Sun56c1,000$560 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4403666.7%24 W · 12 L+5.5wins+0.15per pick52cpaid+27.5%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x448d…3adebacked Justin Boulais46c995$458 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$457.732247.2%152 W · 170 L+3.4wins+0.01per pick46cpaid+3.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa163…934dbacked Justin Boulais3c992.33$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.7730715.6%48 W · 259 L+1.7wins+0.01per pick15cpaid+0.5%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0xfd2b…9ff9backed Fajing Sun52c959.16$499 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$460.3913050.8%66 W · 64 L+4.4wins+0.03per pick47cpaid-3.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf84b…6455backed Justin Boulais7c940.16$63 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$63.411217.4%9 W · 112 L-7.9wins-0.07per pick14cpaid-48.4%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x5e30…acbfbacked Justin Boulais43c819.92$355 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$355.257,72447.8%3,691 W · 4,033 L+41.2wins+0.01per pick47cpaid+1.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa578…6702backed Justin Boulais44c439.71$193 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$193.471,58847%746 W · 842 L-24.2wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-3.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2e7c…164dbacked Justin Boulais44c434.88$191 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$191.3519338.9%75 W · 118 L+5.3wins+0.03per pick36cpaid+109.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xcec1…9c0cbacked Justin Boulais44c417.71$184 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$183.7929952.2%156 W · 143 L+3.3wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+1.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf3d5…7ca1backed Fajing Sun77c397.56$307 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$90.8425756%144 W · 113 L+1.6wins+0.01per pick55cpaid-2.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1489…9924backed Fajing Sun74c369.92$274 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$96.183844.7%17 W · 21 L-3.1wins-0.08per pick53cpaid-26.7%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x0c99…0c88backed Justin Boulais26c354.98$93 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$93.079,28644.3%4,110 W · 5,176 L-245.7wins-0.03per pick47cpaid-12.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xd038…8f51backed Justin Boulais23c335.81$77 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$76.554,28840.5%1,737 W · 2,551 L-139.3wins-0.03per pick44cpaid-20.5%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xe76d…5a75backed Justin Boulais46c300$138 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13810646.2%49 W · 57 L-3.9wins-0.04per pick50cpaid-7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xecae…b906backed Fajing Sun70c300$210 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$901,02646.8%480 W · 546 L+14.1wins+0.01per pick45cpaid+0.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe911…3d4ebacked Fajing Sun69c273.88$190 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$83.984,42651.8%2,291 W · 2,135 L+136.7wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+0.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe7a5…f64abacked Fajing Sun79c249.97$197 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$52.4984963.1%536 W · 313 L+0.5wins0.00per pick63cpaid-2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf3a6…1c01backed Fajing Sun53c237.12$126 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$111.451100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.47per pick53cpaid+88.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xbeea…c13ebacked Justin Boulais48c232.51$112 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$111.6110%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.48per pick48cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1e3b…e232backed Justin Boulais47c223.05$106 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$105.563,90150.1%1,953 W · 1,948 L-13.2wins0.00per pick50cpaid-2.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7511…582ebacked Justin Boulais18c222.47$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41.0416645.2%75 W · 91 L-4.8wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-20.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x8027…cf81backed Justin Boulais45c216.79$97 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$96.6730853.6%165 W · 143 L+2.9wins+0.01per pick53cpaid+0.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa426…540dbacked Justin Boulais22c212.08$47 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$47.055834.5%20 W · 38 L-4.6wins-0.08per pick42cpaid-33.7%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x51ad…5e56backed Fajing Sun58c208.46$122 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$86.531,67153%885 W · 786 L+44.7wins+0.03per pick50cpaid-2.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf9ef…20ebbacked Justin Boulais45c199.99$90 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$901,24551.9%646 W · 599 L+9.3wins+0.01per pick51cpaid-1.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb002…103dbacked Fajing Sun53c195.77$104 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$92.0136852.7%194 W · 174 L+13.5wins+0.04per pick49cpaid+7.3%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x5f65…c1d0backed Fajing Sun53c190.59$101 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$89.9830349.8%151 W · 152 L-2.7wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-2.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2a69…d2f7backed Justin Boulais46c188.36$86 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$86.441,43524.3%348 W · 1,087 L-36.2wins-0.03per pick27cpaid-22.2%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x8642…47c8backed Justin Boulais44c175.71$77 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$77.3125250%126 W · 126 L-6.0wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-4.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8165…b93dbacked Justin Boulais44c175.71$77 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$77.3111844.9%53 W · 65 L-6.2wins-0.05per pick50cpaid-11.1%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xbc08…6b85backed Justin Boulais44c162.87$72 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$71.661,10352.9%583 W · 520 L+2.0wins0.00per pick53cpaid-0.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa509…ae46backed Justin Boulais28c140.24$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.956,78648.8%3,310 W · 3,476 L+56.2wins+0.01per pick48cpaid-15.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc62e…108dbacked Justin Boulais44c131.78$58 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$57.987834.6%27 W · 51 L-9.4wins-0.12per pick47cpaid-32.6%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x08f1…705cbacked Fajing Sun72c127.82$92 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$35.7929958.5%175 W · 124 L+8.0wins+0.03per pick56cpaid+2.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xcb5d…ef01backed Justin Boulais45c127.57$58 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$58.04520%1 W · 4 L-0.9wins-0.19per pick39cpaid-53.5%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x5f64…1bcbbacked Fajing Sun71c117.24$83 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$34.453246.9%15 W · 17 L-0.8wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-23.8%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x4706…286ebacked Justin Boulais47c112.35$53 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$52.829230.5%89 W · 203 L-11.9wins-0.04per pick35cpaid-21.6%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x80d8…b703backed Justin Boulais39c104.35$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40.674,76547%2,238 W · 2,527 L-82.2wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-9.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe2b8…b312backed Fajing Sun55c101.53$56 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$45.57669.7%53 W · 23 L+6.5wins+0.09per pick61cpaid+18.5%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xc90d…e7d6backed Justin Boulais48c100.92$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48.443231.3%10 W · 22 L-6.5wins-0.20per pick52cpaid-37.9%equal weight37-0.11 edge/pick
0x8fb4…d080backed Fajing Sun60c97.6$59 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$39.0422755.1%125 W · 102 L+4.7wins+0.02per pick53cpaid-1.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7baf…4acabacked Fajing Sun53c91.68$49 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$43.093171%22 W · 9 L+6.5wins+0.21per pick50cpaid+43.5%equal weight63+0.12 edge/pick
0x6edd…a867backed Fajing Sun53c84.2$45 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$39.572060%12 W · 8 L+0.8wins+0.04per pick56cpaid+2.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Justin Boulais15c78.03$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.027,81650.6%3,958 W · 3,858 L+95.4wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-4.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe5b1…30b2backed Fajing Sun52c76.84$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$36.891,27661%778 W · 498 L+27.7wins+0.02per pick59cpaid+2.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x60a3…3850backed Justin Boulais23c75.63$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.7185624.4%209 W · 647 L-9.7wins-0.01per pick26cpaid-25.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xeb76…7ffebacked Justin Boulais44c75.38$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.1796844.4%430 W · 538 L-1.9wins0.00per pick45cpaid-1.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x46dc…92c3backed Justin Boulais14c75.16$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.3923949.4%118 W · 121 L+7.1wins+0.03per pick46cpaid-7.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x9f28…d173backed Fajing Sun76c75$57 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1843067%288 W · 142 L+13.3wins+0.03per pick64cpaid+3.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x9079…b19bbacked Fajing Sun70c69.72$49 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20.9252854.9%290 W · 238 L+20.6wins+0.04per pick51cpaid+0.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xd81f…6b75backed Fajing Sun51c66.6$34 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$32.6397745.2%442 W · 535 L-0.9wins0.00per pick45cpaid-6.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe31d…e7a4backed Justin Boulais44c65.89$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.9912748.8%62 W · 65 L-5.1wins-0.04per pick53cpaid-7.8%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x65af…df77backed Justin Boulais45c64.47$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.018347%39 W · 44 L-12.7wins-0.15per pick62cpaid-25%equal weight37-0.12 edge/pick
0xa6d7…d801backed Justin Boulais24c58.72$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.3233655.1%185 W · 151 L-2.3wins-0.01per pick56cpaid+0.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x033a…586dbacked Fajing Sun52c54.16$28 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$269565.3%62 W · 33 L+7.9wins+0.08per pick57cpaid+10.5%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0xa4e8…ff03backed Fajing Sun71c48.83$34 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.429851%152 W · 146 L-3.8wins-0.01per pick52cpaid-12.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb5bd…b891backed Fajing Sun66c48.5$32 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.5419153.4%102 W · 89 L+3.2wins+0.02per pick52cpaid-13%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x6031…de1ebacked Fajing Sun66c47.25$31 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.2911258.9%66 W · 46 L+7.6wins+0.07per pick52cpaid+3.4%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x7baa…03b7backed Justin Boulais40c47.04$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.8216358.9%96 W · 67 L+12.4wins+0.08per pick51cpaid+19.5%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x8098…5646backed Fajing Sun66c46.11$31 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.5376853%407 W · 361 L+8.0wins+0.01per pick52cpaid-5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4ded…68a3backed Fajing Sun54c45.02$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20.7188560.2%533 W · 352 L-13.6wins-0.02per pick62cpaid-3.8%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x948b…a188backed Fajing Sun66c44.35$29 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.941,17451.9%609 W · 565 L+11.8wins+0.01per pick51cpaid-6.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5ce5…af2ebacked Fajing Sun69c41.89$29 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.17146.5%33 W · 38 L-2.5wins-0.04per pick50cpaid-17.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x4158…4961backed Fajing Sun71c41.46$29 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.989744.3%43 W · 54 L-4.1wins-0.04per pick49cpaid-17.3%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x82de…1337backed Fajing Sun75c41.09$31 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.2741658.7%244 W · 172 L+22.3wins+0.05per pick53cpaid+3.8%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xa07d…a037backed Justin Boulais27c40.96$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.053,27013.8%450 W · 2,820 L-549.1wins-0.17per pick31cpaid-57.4%equal weight31-0.17 edge/pick
0x5b56…9100backed Fajing Sun52c37.35$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.937243.1%31 W · 41 L-1.6wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-9.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2302…d6d2backed Fajing Sun66c34.81$23 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.781,13250.3%569 W · 563 L+7.6wins+0.01per pick50cpaid-7.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xfb51…082dbacked Fajing Sun66c34.81$23 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.7848453.7%260 W · 224 L+6.3wins+0.01per pick52cpaid-9.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x17a3…8cb3backed Fajing Sun71c34.79$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.0910471.2%74 W · 30 L+3.9wins+0.04per pick67cpaid+7.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x584d…d358backed Fajing Sun57c33.46$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.3934159.5%203 W · 138 L-8.2wins-0.02per pick62cpaid-5.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7849…0961backed Fajing Sun77c31.88$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.33250%1 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.12per pick62cpaid-35.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc104…f24fbacked Fajing Sun58c31.5$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.231070%7 W · 3 L+1.0wins+0.10per pick60cpaid+10.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x200f…7a96backed Justin Boulais44c31.25$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.757,13949.7%3,548 W · 3,591 L+109.9wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+3.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc4db…7e0cbacked Justin Boulais39c30.49$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.893,87135%1,353 W · 2,518 L+92.5wins+0.02per pick33cpaid+8.2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xa7ca…8850backed Justin Boulais34c30.48$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.366732.8%22 W · 45 L-3.9wins-0.06per pick39cpaid-25.7%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x10cf…1cfbbacked Fajing Sun56c30.43$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.3919344.6%86 W · 107 L-2.0wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-4.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8943…6c65backed Fajing Sun72c30.17$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.613863%87 W · 51 L+6.2wins+0.04per pick59cpaid-1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x1105…09d0backed Fajing Sun61c29.78$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.6114958.4%87 W · 62 L-0.9wins-0.01per pick59cpaid-5.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xcd9d…2269backed Justin Boulais44c29.57$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.016165.6%40 W · 21 L+5.4wins+0.09per pick57cpaid+18%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x2373…a1f3backed Fajing Sun76c25.31$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.1237153.9%200 W · 171 L+4.6wins+0.01per pick53cpaid+1.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3982…2befbacked Fajing Sun71c22.83$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.760355.4%334 W · 269 L+19.8wins+0.03per pick52cpaid-3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x9dfd…aadebacked Fajing Sun56c20.9$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.1913557.8%78 W · 57 L+8.2wins+0.06per pick52cpaid+3.7%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xdcdd…6d55backed Fajing Sun56c20.9$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.1914856.8%84 W · 64 L+1.1wins+0.01per pick56cpaid-3.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x32cc…68b3backed Fajing Sun56c20.56$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.081,67850.8%852 W · 826 L+30.5wins+0.02per pick49cpaid-4.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x86fb…03d4backed Fajing Sun56c20.56$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.0885348.7%415 W · 438 L+6.5wins+0.01per pick48cpaid-7.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.