Movies · resolved market
Will "My Secret Santa" be the top global Netflix movie this week? (December 9, 2025)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x8d5ceac9b418cbfb591149f47e360532ee6bddc5e706aba78c58f7ad5d296746
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Moviesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $23,575
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $23,040
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $23,575 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 21 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Movies is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Movies | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x011b…e44dbacked No | 41c | 5,833$2,371 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,371.28 | 67 | 31.3%21 W · 46 L | -4.0wins | -0.06per pick | 37cpaid | -50.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6837…15e1backed Yes | 36c | 4,198$1,509 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,688.66 | 116 | 37.1%43 W · 73 L | +14.1wins | +0.12per pick | 25cpaid | +25.8%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x3c59…1766backed Yes | 75c | 3,413$2,566 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$846.77 | 47 | 51.1%24 W · 23 L | +5.5wins | +0.12per pick | 39cpaid | +38.7%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x6c7d…d6ebbacked Yes | 32c | 2,531$806 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,724.37 | 331 | 23.9%79 W · 252 L | +12.0wins | +0.04per pick | 20cpaid | -15%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0562…9d66backed No | 20c | 2,100$418 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$418.43 | 67 | 32.8%22 W · 45 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x97f3…0ebabacked Yes | 37c | 1,075$400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$674.72 | 58 | 39.7%23 W · 35 L | -4.7wins | -0.08per pick | 48cpaid | -29.6%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xeb9d…e31bbacked Yes | 71c | 759.07$539 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$219.68 | 36 | 55.6%20 W · 16 L | +3.7wins | +0.10per pick | 45cpaid | +32.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x78f3…9529backed No | 22c | 562.59$126 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125.6 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -36.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5c1f…ec98backed No | 65c | 400$260 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$260 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -1.5wins | -0.13per pick | 46cpaid | -29.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf416…6ec9backed No | 37c | 347.79$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130.09 | 137 | 40.1%55 W · 82 L | -2.2wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -23%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9ddf…2c83backed No | 56c | 263.21$147 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$147.4 | 43 | 14%6 W · 37 L | -2.7wins | -0.06per pick | 20cpaid | -67.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x61d3…fd3bbacked Yes | 50c | 200$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.10per pick | 57cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4579…9f19backed No | 12c | 175.75$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | +0.8wins | +0.09per pick | 16cpaid | -32%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xef6d…e751backed No | 76c | 171.96$131 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$131.3 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | -1.7wins | -0.17per pick | 67cpaid | -32.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed No | 42c | 107.35$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.49 | 1,218 | 17.8%217 W · 1,001 L | -124.0wins | -0.10per pick | 28cpaid | -50.6%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x029b…5937backed No | 67c | 100$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.72 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -1.6wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x72ab…1a3ebacked No | 60c | 87.73$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.41 | 136 | 50%68 W · 68 L | -2.0wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -23%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4a71…1d7dbacked Yes | 64c | 65$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.55 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.17per pick | 67cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…e8a2backed No | 67c | 35$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.56 | 138 | 51.4%71 W · 67 L | +3.7wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc0a6…2ab9backed No | 79c | 28$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.12 | 198 | 36.4%72 W · 126 L | -11.1wins | -0.06per pick | 42cpaid | -20.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 66c | 23$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.07 | 208 | 50%104 W · 104 L | -2.6wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Movies and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will "My Secret Santa" be the top global Netflix movie this week? (December 9, 2025)this page
- Will "Jay Kelly" be the top global Netflix movie this week? (December 9, 2025)No won
- Will "Jingle Bell Heist" be the top global Netflix movie this week? (December 9, 2025)No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.