Music · resolved market
GRAMMYs 2024: Will ’SOS’ by SZA win Album of the Year?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x8d6c650649ae35cc77635261c60a6af42972797cbc59e96dd5760b0d610c4ad6
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Musicevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $29,291
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $25,911
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $29,291 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 16 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Music is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Music | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd7ad…4953backed Yes | 21c | 2,822$601 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$600.5 | 81 | 40.7%33 W · 48 L | +7.8wins | +0.10per pick | 31cpaid | +32.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x209c…d319backed Yes | 24c | 2,300$557 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$557 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.33per pick | 33cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9506…1cd8backed Yes | 16c | 2,172$348 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$347.52 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaaf4…7883backed No | 78c | 1,913$1,483 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$430.42 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +2.4wins | +0.27per pick | 40cpaid | +28.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe2b1…7d2abacked Yes | 20c | 1,728$350 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$349.5 | 36 | 41.7%15 W · 21 L | +1.7wins | +0.05per pick | 37cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6356…1885backed Yes | 24c | 793$190 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$190.32 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +886.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3cf3…87b3backed Yes | 14c | 533$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.94 | 14 | 14.3%2 W · 12 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 16cpaid | -71.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x79fd…0594backed No | 79c | 230.78$182 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.46 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.21per pick | 79cpaid | +26.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9e1a…baf0backed Yes | 22c | 227.27$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.5wins | -0.29per pick | 49cpaid | -74.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x24c5…923dbacked Yes | 22c | 227.27$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 22 | 9.1%2 W · 20 L | -2.4wins | -0.11per pick | 20cpaid | -62.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf8b5…a5cabacked Yes | 20c | 220$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -1.5wins | -0.21per pick | 35cpaid | -81%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x03b9…7dc6backed Yes | 24c | 208$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.06per pick | 22cpaid | -75.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x505d…87b2backed Yes | 15c | 207$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.05 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb0d7…f9fabacked No | 80c | 200$160 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40 | 47 | 48.9%23 W · 24 L | +1.3wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +14.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x32f4…c885backed Yes | 21c | 84.09$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcb14…5358backed Yes | 21c | 71.43$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 199 | 39.2%78 W · 121 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Music and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- GRAMMYs 2024: Will ’SOS’ by SZA win Album of the Year?this page
- GRAMMYs 2024: Will ‘Did You Know That There’s A Tunnel Under Ocean Blvd’ by Lana Del Rey win Album of the Year?No won
- GRAMMYs 2024: Will ‘Endless Summer Vacation’ by Miley Cyrus win Album of the Year?No won
- GRAMMYs 2024: Will ‘GUTS’ by Olivia Rodrigo win Album of the Year?No won
- GRAMMYs 2024: Will ‘Midnights’ by Taylor Swift win Album of the Year?Yes won
- GRAMMYs 2024: Will ‘World Music Radio’ by Jon Batiste win Album of the Year?No won
- GRAMMYs 2024: Will ’the record’ by boygenius win Album of the Year?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.