Music · resolved market
GRAMMYs 2024: Will ‘Midnights’ by Taylor Swift win Album of the Year?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x51166c9c48de7fd017d75ce5f9897848d99faf21b3b9c9133f3971673a4a6b26
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Musicevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $44,330
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $48,784
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $44,330 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 31 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Music is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Music | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd7ad…4953backed Yes | 73c | 6,462$4,694 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,767.9 | 81 | 40.7%33 W · 48 L | +7.8wins | +0.10per pick | 31cpaid | +32.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3cf3…87b3backed Yes | 65c | 5,354$3,478 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,875.79 | 14 | 14.3%2 W · 12 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 16cpaid | -71.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe2b1…7d2abacked Yes | 68c | 3,040$2,078 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$962.45 | 36 | 41.7%15 W · 21 L | +1.7wins | +0.05per pick | 37cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5711…aa00backed Yes | 65c | 1,538$1,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$537.88 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.35per pick | 65cpaid | +53.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaaf4…7883backed Yes | 65c | 1,345$876 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$469.2 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +2.4wins | +0.27per pick | 40cpaid | +28.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6727…db84backed Yes | 67c | 934.3$630 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$304.07 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.19per pick | 48cpaid | +23.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x574e…3ef1backed No | 38c | 800$304 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$304 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +1.2wins | +0.17per pick | 26cpaid | +87.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6b7e…4562backed Yes | 70c | 782$547 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$234.57 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | -1.0wins | -0.07per pick | 40cpaid | -11%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd727…eccebacked Yes | 69c | 700$483 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$217 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.51per pick | 49cpaid | +144.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf8b5…a5cabacked No | 32c | 700$224 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$224 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -1.5wins | -0.21per pick | 35cpaid | -81%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x474d…bb0abacked Yes | 66c | 613.85$405 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$208.71 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.09per pick | 42cpaid | -49.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x81d7…2d83backed Yes | 67c | 583.57$391 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$192.58 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.33per pick | 67cpaid | +49.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa8ec…03e2backed No | 35c | 571.43$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.3wins | -0.33per pick | 33cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4337…8882backed Yes | 66c | 368.55$245 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$123.76 | 25 | 36%9 W · 16 L | +0.7wins | +0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -34.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb2d6…f3bdbacked No | 35c | 300.29$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105.1 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.07per pick | 49cpaid | +41.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6127…d48ebacked Yes | 72c | 250$180 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5b68…b668backed Yes | 71c | 200$142 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.29per pick | 71cpaid | +40.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3098…568abacked Yes | 69c | 150$104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.5 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.31per pick | 69cpaid | +44.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xda08…72d4backed Yes | 67c | 149.25$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.25 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.33per pick | 67cpaid | +49.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc0ee…ec14backed No | 36c | 100$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -2.7wins | -0.27per pick | 57cpaid | -57.1%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xcb14…5358backed Yes | 72c | 91.79$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.99 | 199 | 39.2%78 W · 121 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd3ab…e654backed Yes | 67c | 74.63$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.63 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.33per pick | 67cpaid | +49.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x03b9…7dc6backed Yes | 68c | 73.53$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.53 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.06per pick | 22cpaid | -75.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe6b0…b8f1backed Yes | 69c | 72.46$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.46 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.31per pick | 69cpaid | +44.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6fe2…3b32backed No | 28c | 50$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.38per pick | 38cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9422…3407backed Yes | 66c | 50$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.1 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.16per pick | 34cpaid | -1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd16e…2d90backed Yes | 66c | 37.74$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.83 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.48per pick | 52cpaid | +104%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa87e…bfdbbacked Yes | 69c | 28.99$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.99 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.31per pick | 69cpaid | +44.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf2c5…c8ddbacked Yes | 67c | 24.69$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.15 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -25.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6316…88dcbacked Yes | 65c | 23.82$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.25 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.35per pick | 65cpaid | +53%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x22db…190fbacked Yes | 67c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.6 | 49 | 55.1%27 W · 22 L | +3.3wins | +0.07per pick | 48cpaid | +16.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Music and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- GRAMMYs 2024: Will ‘Midnights’ by Taylor Swift win Album of the Year?this page
- GRAMMYs 2024: Will ‘Did You Know That There’s A Tunnel Under Ocean Blvd’ by Lana Del Rey win Album of the Year?No won
- GRAMMYs 2024: Will ‘Endless Summer Vacation’ by Miley Cyrus win Album of the Year?No won
- GRAMMYs 2024: Will ‘GUTS’ by Olivia Rodrigo win Album of the Year?No won
- GRAMMYs 2024: Will ‘World Music Radio’ by Jon Batiste win Album of the Year?No won
- GRAMMYs 2024: Will ’SOS’ by SZA win Album of the Year?No won
- GRAMMYs 2024: Will ’the record’ by boygenius win Album of the Year?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.