Premier League · resolved market
Will Manchester United win the FA Cup?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x8d75cdd4345f3b8233d5ee2e281d15b008f774bf0ef06b2e6bf431ed4dea951f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Premier Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $50,893
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $46,700
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $50,893 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 28 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Premier League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Premier League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xaaf4…7883backed No | 80c | 18,113$14,477 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14,476.76 | 49 | 42.9%21 W · 28 L | -2.1wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4cc3…7552backed Yes | 21c | 12,943$2,672 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10,270.82 | 51 | 41.2%21 W · 30 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | +26.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9d84…1344backed Yes | 21c | 7,700$1,619 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,081 | 22 | 54.5%12 W · 10 L | +5.3wins | +0.24per pick | 31cpaid | +63.9%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x6356…1885backed No | 78c | 4,983$3,909 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,909.18 | 48 | 31.3%15 W · 33 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7789…f823backed Yes | 18c | 4,119$739 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,380 | 39 | 38.5%15 W · 24 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x744c…e37fbacked Yes | 18c | 2,321$417 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,903.92 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +36.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9dfd…8775backed Yes | 17c | 1,899$332 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,566.97 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.6wins | +0.13per pick | 27cpaid | +83.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x734d…b810backed Yes | 17c | 1,200$204 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$996 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +80.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa73e…5fdfbacked No | 77c | 998.7$769 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$769 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.77per pick | 77cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe24f…0c5abacked Yes | 18c | 583.28$105 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$478.29 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | +85.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x31d8…a9cebacked Yes | 18c | 555.56$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$455.56 | 41 | 29.3%12 W · 29 L | +2.3wins | +0.06per pick | 24cpaid | +39%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc0c0…b40bbacked Yes | 18c | 555.56$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$455.56 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.16per pick | 18cpaid | +85.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4337…8882backed No | 80c | 431.26$345 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$344.6 | 168 | 48.8%82 W · 86 L | +9.5wins | +0.06per pick | 43cpaid | +6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x24c8…23e1backed Yes | 22c | 300$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$234 | 87 | 34.5%30 W · 57 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1dbd…af92backed No | 73c | 292$212 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$211.92 | 86 | 52.3%45 W · 41 L | +2.1wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x22a6…38c0backed Yes | 18c | 277.78$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$227.78 | 28 | 35.7%10 W · 18 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x51b6…ed4fbacked No | 78c | 220$171 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$171.4 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -2.5wins | -0.63per pick | 63cpaid | -100%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xfdb6…b0b6backed Yes | 18c | 220$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$180.4 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.3wins | +0.63per pick | 37cpaid | +267.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x914a…7e92backed No | 14c | 199.94$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.99 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +1.1wins | +0.28per pick | 22cpaid | +130.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x493b…6c08backed Yes | 18c | 181$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$148.42 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.82per pick | 18cpaid | +455.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x11e0…46fcbacked Yes | 18c | 138.89$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$113.89 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.28per pick | 22cpaid | +177.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3c64…ec32backed Yes | 18c | 100$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.82per pick | 18cpaid | +455.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc588…6d59backed Yes | 18c | 88.89$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.89 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.3wins | +0.63per pick | 37cpaid | +267.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x827a…a12bbacked Yes | 17c | 88.24$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.24 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +1.0wins | +0.34per pick | 33cpaid | +139.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xeac6…d0b8backed Yes | 19c | 78.95$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.95 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +2.6wins | +0.37per pick | 35cpaid | +129.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xad70…4ccfbacked Yes | 24c | 42$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.92 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xff62…ea23backed Yes | 74c | 40.8$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.61 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.10per pick | 60cpaid | -25.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1856…1964backed Yes | 63c | 22$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.14 | 30 | 53.3%16 W · 14 L | +1.6wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +18.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Premier League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 2 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Manchester United win the FA Cup?this page
- Will Manchester City win the FA Cup?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.