Premier League · resolved market
Will Manchester City win the FA Cup?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xc80b3b116eb80acb5b89b767d0ac0c9f37bffa8dd5cceb8bd91b896ee3db69a7
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Premier Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $54,511
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $54,244
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $54,511 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 18 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Premier League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Premier League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xaaf4…7883backed Yes | 79c | 17,531$13,926 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13,926.08 | 49 | 42.9%21 W · 28 L | -2.1wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4cc3…7552backed No | 20c | 16,198$3,176 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13,021.81 | 51 | 41.2%21 W · 30 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | +26.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9d84…1344backed No | 21c | 7,952$1,670 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,282.39 | 22 | 54.5%12 W · 10 L | +5.3wins | +0.24per pick | 31cpaid | +63.9%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x745b…ff04backed Yes | 70c | 5,855$4,121 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,121.4 | 22 | 31.8%7 W · 15 L | -1.6wins | -0.07per pick | 39cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaed2…8e93backed No | 18c | 2,778$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,277.78 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | +85.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6356…1885backed No | 16c | 1,918$315 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,602.91 | 48 | 31.3%15 W · 33 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x668d…97d2backed No | 17c | 1,200$204 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$996 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +1.0wins | +0.12per pick | 38cpaid | +50%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7789…f823backed No | 16c | 1,192$191 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,001 | 39 | 38.5%15 W · 24 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcdd7…0b65backed No | 17c | 1,000$170 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$830 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.7wins | -0.12per pick | 29cpaid | -2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1856…1964backed Yes | 30c | 345.19$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.56 | 30 | 53.3%16 W · 14 L | +1.6wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +18.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x24c8…23e1backed No | 22c | 300$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$234 | 87 | 34.5%30 W · 57 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9b6e…8a16backed No | 18c | 300$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$246 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.82per pick | 18cpaid | +455.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x914a…7e92backed No | 17c | 200$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$166 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +1.1wins | +0.28per pick | 22cpaid | +130.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3f…becdbacked Yes | 78c | 128.21$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -2.4wins | -0.40per pick | 57cpaid | -71.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x21ef…c4cdbacked No | 18c | 122.22$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100.22 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.82per pick | 18cpaid | +455.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf86c…ba99backed No | 23c | 100$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77 | 129 | 59.7%77 W · 52 L | +4.2wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +10.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1dbd…af92backed Yes | 77c | 98.75$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.04 | 86 | 52.3%45 W · 41 L | +2.1wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf6da…21edbacked Yes | 78c | 30.88$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.09 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.78per pick | 78cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Premier League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 2 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Manchester City win the FA Cup?this page
- Will Manchester United win the FA Cup?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.