TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

NHL · resolved market

Lightning vs. Red Wings

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Lightningof Lightning, Red Wings
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
NHLevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$81,348
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$88,135

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $81,348 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 174 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NHL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in NHL
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x9eb2…c8bfbacked Red Wings45c22,575$10,150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10,149.843865.8%25 W · 13 L+3.0wins+0.08per pick58cpaid+17.8%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x5314…910cbacked Lightning55c15,726$8,650 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,076.9222842.5%97 W · 131 L-7.3wins-0.03per pick46cpaid-10.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xb8c4…7385backed Red Wings37c11,505$4,297 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,297.0623642.8%101 W · 135 L-4.8wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-4.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x945e…2acabacked Lightning78c7,015$5,478 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,536.538950.6%45 W · 44 L+3.9wins+0.04per pick46cpaid-4.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xc575…3fb1backed Red Wings19c5,260$999 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$998.62922.2%2 W · 7 L-1.0wins-0.12per pick34cpaid-48.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xfb79…c2c6backed Lightning56c5,252$2,945 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,307.149459.6%56 W · 38 L+11.1wins+0.12per pick48cpaid+20.8%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0xb786…b18dbacked Lightning55c4,537$2,504 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,033.492848.5%450 W · 478 L+17.6wins+0.02per pick47cpaid+5.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3e04…564dbacked Lightning58c3,419$1,975 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,444.211,89152.4%991 W · 900 L+36.3wins+0.02per pick50cpaid+3.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x40e3…0787backed Red Wings8c2,653$217 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$216.8732331.3%101 W · 222 L-2.2wins-0.01per pick32cpaid-28.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x50e7…6eb6backed Red Wings44c2,500$1,100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,099.86366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.3wins+0.09per pick58cpaid+6.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5f28…92fabacked Lightning56c2,494$1,396 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,097.2366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.4wins+0.13per pick53cpaid+18%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xd320…0ffdbacked Lightning56c2,315$1,296 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,018.441100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.44per pick56cpaid+78.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3186…4e11backed Red Wings44c2,306$1,015 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,014.64250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-13.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5c57…5b16backed Red Wings42c1,832$761 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$760.641,47548.3%712 W · 763 L+2.7wins0.00per pick48cpaid+1.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x60cd…a1b6backed Lightning58c1,734$998 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$736.4610658.5%62 W · 44 L+5.8wins+0.06per pick53cpaid+8%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xb22a…f94abacked Red Wings43c1,600$688 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6881560%9 W · 6 L+1.1wins+0.08per pick52cpaid+18.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd61c…5953backed Lightning57c1,599$911 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$687.571540%6 W · 9 L-1.4wins-0.09per pick49cpaid-24.7%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xa9d3…9d4bbacked Lightning57c1,572$901 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$671.1679251.1%405 W · 387 L+21.7wins+0.03per pick48cpaid+5.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x994e…9cf5backed Lightning57c1,304$748 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$556.449351.3%253 W · 240 L+8.5wins+0.02per pick50cpaid+3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa6a8…5009backed Lightning71c1,004$713 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$290.921,40647%661 W · 745 L+58.6wins+0.04per pick43cpaid-0.8%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x977a…f2cabacked Red Wings1c1,000$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$101,1632.3%27 W · 1,136 L-10.7wins-0.01per pick3cpaid-87.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x480d…f219backed Red Wings25c999.99$250 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25085148.5%413 W · 438 L-48.2wins-0.06per pick54cpaid-11.6%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xf00f…711abacked Red Wings42c894.99$376 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$375.913756.2%77 W · 60 L+5.0wins+0.04per pick53cpaid+6.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x3979…7f65backed Red Wings43c800$344 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$344333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.12per pick46cpaid-27.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2991…c921backed Lightning57c800$456 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$344366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.3wins+0.10per pick57cpaid+22.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc56a…4aabbacked Red Wings10c783$78 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$78.310%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x519f…2af7backed Red Wings44c559.17$247 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$247.427044.3%31 W · 39 L-4.7wins-0.07per pick51cpaid-13.4%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x4e0a…e4e6backed Lightning57c529$300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$228.9960549.3%298 W · 307 L+4.2wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+0.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7fc3…3097backed Lightning58c494.49$286 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$208.491353.8%7 W · 6 L+0.6wins+0.04per pick50cpaid+4.4%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x854f…00a7backed Lightning69c482.68$331 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$151.644831.3%15 W · 33 L-5.6wins-0.12per pick43cpaid-44.2%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xe27b…858fbacked Red Wings42c413.14$174 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$173.7672444.6%323 W · 401 L+7.1wins+0.01per pick44cpaid+1.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xfdbf…c88ebacked Red Wings36c401.23$143 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$143.4920540.5%83 W · 122 L+0.6wins0.00per pick40cpaid-3.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x23be…da4fbacked Red Wings44c341.55$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15022246.8%104 W · 118 L-2.8wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-3.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5179…2b29backed Lightning57c317$180 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$137.2348149.3%237 W · 244 L+0.4wins0.00per pick49cpaid-0.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8b7e…6a9fbacked Red Wings38c291.38$110 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1101,03955.2%574 W · 465 L-5.7wins-0.01per pick56cpaid-1.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0d87…bf99backed Red Wings43c260.41$112 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$111.98580%4 W · 1 L+1.4wins+0.28per pick52cpaid+50.4%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x19f8…98f9backed Lightning79c253.48$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$53.4841757.3%239 W · 178 L-2.8wins-0.01per pick58cpaid-0.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4407…8f2bbacked Lightning79c253.16$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$53.162948.3%14 W · 15 L-1.5wins-0.05per pick54cpaid-13.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x679c…e26fbacked Lightning57c250.84$143 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$107.861172.7%8 W · 3 L+1.5wins+0.14per pick59cpaid+15.7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xc94b…fd9bbacked Red Wings43c232.56$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10038040.5%154 W · 226 L-16.2wins-0.04per pick45cpaid-15.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x4103…9b9ebacked Red Wings44c227.28$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10028842%121 W · 167 L-12.4wins-0.04per pick46cpaid-13.3%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xdd6a…180abacked Lightning57c217.25$124 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$93.42633.3%2 W · 4 L-0.5wins-0.08per pick41cpaid-39.3%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x7ef7…f922backed Red Wings43c207.68$89 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$89.3425%1 W · 3 L-1.2wins-0.30per pick55cpaid-46.8%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xb13d…2e90backed Lightning57c206.95$117 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$89.9784051.4%432 W · 408 L+19.1wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+3.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8e2a…0e15backed Red Wings25c201$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$506041.7%25 W · 35 L-3.0wins-0.05per pick47cpaid-15.3%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xdc4b…5a92backed Red Wings34c178.78$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$601,03755%570 W · 467 L-0.8wins0.00per pick55cpaid-1.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x20da…e704backed Red Wings12c166.67$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20812.5%1 W · 7 L-0.9wins-0.11per pick23cpaid-53.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x8725…eb10backed Red Wings43c140.23$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$60.362944%277 W · 352 L-14.4wins-0.02per pick46cpaid-5.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x651e…76cebacked Lightning57c105.27$60 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$45.27475%3 W · 1 L+0.6wins+0.14per pick61cpaid+22.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x39f9…32fabacked Lightning57c100$57 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$43450%2 W · 2 L+0.1wins+0.02per pick48cpaid-14.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe2d4…90c1backed Lightning57c100$57 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$431752.9%9 W · 8 L+0.5wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+3.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd1bd…de55backed Lightning57c100$57 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$431163.6%7 W · 4 L+1.7wins+0.16per pick48cpaid+30%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xd724…eda0backed Red Wings43c100$43 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$431656.3%9 W · 7 L+0.4wins+0.03per pick53cpaid+8.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbfbe…d9e2backed Lightning57c100$57 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$431163.6%7 W · 4 L+0.6wins+0.05per pick58cpaid+10.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc7c7…5dd7backed Red Wings43c100$43 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$431154.5%6 W · 5 L+0.8wins+0.07per pick47cpaid+18.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc1cc…87e8backed Lightning57c100$57 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$43944.4%4 W · 5 L-0.3wins-0.03per pick47cpaid-2.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbd59…9e70backed Lightning50c100$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$50475%3 W · 1 L+1.0wins+0.25per pick50cpaid+42.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x5036…416bbacked Lightning55c100$55 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4527643.5%120 W · 156 L-3.5wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-3.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0d3d…c574backed Red Wings43c100$43 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$43425%1 W · 3 L-0.2wins-0.06per pick31cpaid-28.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb4e3…a992backed Red Wings44c100$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$44450%2 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-21.7%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x63f3…c0e3backed Lightning57c100$57 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$43650%3 W · 3 L0.0wins0.00per pick50cpaid+21%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5fb3…7a92backed Red Wings43c100$43 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$431060%6 W · 4 L+1.0wins+0.10per pick50cpaid+34.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe486…c7b6backed Red Wings43c100$43 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$431020%2 W · 8 L-2.3wins-0.23per pick43cpaid-62.1%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0x34a1…6c73backed Red Wings43c100$43 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$431650%8 W · 8 L+0.4wins+0.03per pick47cpaid+1.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xcb00…56e1backed Red Wings50c100$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5010%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.50per pick50cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf33f…085cbacked Lightning56c99$55 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$43.5681846%376 W · 442 L+4.1wins0.00per pick45cpaid-2.1%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x9f41…d3f1backed Lightning57c97.61$56 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$41.971457.1%8 W · 6 L+0.8wins+0.06per pick51cpaid+8.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x12d9…d1dabacked Lightning57c92$52 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$39.56250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-12.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf0ca…2899backed Red Wings43c92$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.56250%1 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.04per pick54cpaid-23.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa3b7…520dbacked Red Wings44c91.23$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4028542.1%120 W · 165 L-4.5wins-0.02per pick44cpaid-5.4%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x9c6d…7d7cbacked Lightning57c80$46 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$34.41546.7%7 W · 8 L-0.4wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-4.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9df2…1cf1backed Lightning57c80$46 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$34.41136.4%4 W · 7 L-1.0wins-0.09per pick46cpaid-25.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf96c…087ebacked Red Wings43c80$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.41145.5%5 W · 6 L-0.2wins-0.02per pick47cpaid+4.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0cee…d3afbacked Lightning56c80$45 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$35.21100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.44per pick56cpaid+78.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6e09…848fbacked Red Wings44c80$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.210%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.44per pick44cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2955…91f4backed Red Wings43c80$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.41560%9 W · 6 L+1.2wins+0.08per pick52cpaid+8.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xbf26…b387backed Lightning59c71.19$42 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29.194141.5%17 W · 24 L-2.8wins-0.07per pick48cpaid-21%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x510a…cd0ebacked Lightning57c66$38 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28.381361.5%8 W · 5 L+1.0wins+0.07per pick54cpaid+11.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x8822…73e9backed Red Wings43c66$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.381566.7%10 W · 5 L+2.4wins+0.16per pick50cpaid+35.1%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x664b…8509backed Lightning61c65$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25.357660.5%46 W · 30 L+9.6wins+0.13per pick48cpaid+26.2%equal weight61+0.09 edge/pick
0xd465…5fe8backed Lightning50c64$32 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$322100%2 W · 0 L+1.0wins+0.51per pick50cpaid+102%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x6a8b…ec2fbacked Lightning79c63.29$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.291100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.21per pick79cpaid+26.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x88f8…76abbacked Lightning50c57$29 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28.51100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.50per pick50cpaid+100%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6841…154cbacked Red Wings50c57$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.510%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.50per pick50cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x188b…8ef3backed Lightning50c56$28 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$282100%2 W · 0 L+1.0wins+0.50per pick50cpaid+100%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x2b39…666cbacked Red Wings50c56$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2810%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.50per pick50cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf04f…a8c4backed Red Wings43c55$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.6516437.2%61 W · 103 L-3.5wins-0.02per pick39cpaid-3.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xacbe…85d4backed Lightning75c53.33$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.3320147.3%95 W · 106 L-5.5wins-0.03per pick50cpaid-7.2%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x9652…8984backed Lightning57c50$29 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21.5862.5%5 W · 3 L+1.3wins+0.16per pick47cpaid+32%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xaa5e…5a2cbacked Red Wings43c50$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.51154.5%6 W · 5 L+1.1wins+0.10per pick45cpaid+6.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd3ec…60ffbacked Lightning57c50$29 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21.5887.5%7 W · 1 L+2.8wins+0.35per pick52cpaid+75.1%equal weight59+0.09 edge/pick
0x04a1…d6e6backed Red Wings41c50$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.53650%18 W · 18 L+2.1wins+0.06per pick44cpaid+19%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x64c8…81fcbacked Red Wings43c50$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.51127.3%3 W · 8 L-2.3wins-0.21per pick49cpaid-44.8%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0x2366…1078backed Red Wings44c45.46$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2045954.2%249 W · 210 L-1.5wins0.00per pick55cpaid-2.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1998…335bbacked Red Wings49c43$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.0710%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.49per pick49cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x85cf…f7f4backed Lightning51c43$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21.071100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.49per pick51cpaid+96.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xae1e…7c4cbacked Lightning56c43$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.781181.8%9 W · 2 L+3.3wins+0.30per pick52cpaid+60.4%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0xd611…fb52backed Lightning57c42.02$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.07366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.4wins+0.15per pick52cpaid+34.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc490…423cbacked Red Wings50c42$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21250%1 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-10.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe358…8774backed Red Wings44c41.48$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.25425%1 W · 3 L-1.0wins-0.26per pick51cpaid-39%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NHL and say nothing about this market.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.