Valorant · resolved market
Valorant: NOVO Esports vs HGE Esports (BO3) - VCL Spain: Rising Phase 1 Playoffs
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x8d94680fab7ecf3e57d19b5e5a9d9eb7f7dd149c249c40ad54d85e75de8642c2
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- HGE Esportsof NOVO Esports, HGE Esports
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Valorantevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $5,579
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $7,019
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $5,579 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 30 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Valorant is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Valorant | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked HGE Esports | 77c | 615.29$476 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$139.38 | 1,417 | 51.3%727 W · 690 L | +49.9wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xee8e…0a7bbacked NOVO Esports | 59c | 516.09$303 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$302.55 | 781 | 62%484 W · 297 L | +16.8wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xde04…fa37backed NOVO Esports | 15c | 500.65$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.99 | 415 | 37.1%154 W · 261 L | -26.8wins | -0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -31.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x51db…f9b3backed HGE Esports | 55c | 317.97$174 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$144.14 | 1,746 | 46.2%806 W · 940 L | -3.2wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcb5b…f243backed NOVO Esports | 15c | 314.83$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.22 | 702 | 51.3%360 W · 342 L | +7.5wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc4db…7e0cbacked HGE Esports | 41c | 299.99$123 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$177 | 610 | 35.9%219 W · 391 L | -17.5wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffd…7821backed NOVO Esports | 65c | 277.2$179 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$179.4 | 425 | 40.5%172 W · 253 L | -22.7wins | -0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x55ab…4f88backed NOVO Esports | 34c | 257.55$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.65 | 353 | 31.2%110 W · 243 L | -29.2wins | -0.08per pick | 39cpaid | -38.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed NOVO Esports | 30c | 248.46$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.75 | 463 | 26.6%123 W · 340 L | -26.0wins | -0.06per pick | 32cpaid | -38.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x22d2…82d7backed NOVO Esports | 33c | 199.06$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.27 | 74 | 33.8%25 W · 49 L | -2.7wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -22.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf394…cdb1backed HGE Esports | 67c | 142.5$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.28 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.33per pick | 67cpaid | +49.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeab6…d4c6backed NOVO Esports | 30c | 135.92$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.02 | 72 | 41.7%30 W · 42 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x596a…7a0fbacked HGE Esports | 58c | 126.69$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.68 | 544 | 39.9%217 W · 327 L | +12.7wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed NOVO Esports | 34c | 115.12$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.62 | 697 | 22.8%159 W · 538 L | -94.4wins | -0.14per pick | 36cpaid | -54.7%equal weight | 35-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x4ec3…34a7backed HGE Esports | 79c | 103.59$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.94 | 291 | 51.5%150 W · 141 L | -0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked HGE Esports | 80c | 101.76$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.45 | 1,376 | 47.1%648 W · 728 L | +10.6wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa74a…4893backed HGE Esports | 40c | 100$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60 | 347 | 39.8%138 W · 209 L | -13.7wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -24.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5625…6c2abacked HGE Esports | 67c | 89.98$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.13 | 56 | 51.8%29 W · 27 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +9.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5929…4684backed HGE Esports | 47c | 83.55$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.28 | 1,490 | 46.6%695 W · 795 L | -16.1wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -12%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc866…8c6dbacked NOVO Esports | 29c | 80.93$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.31 | 164 | 42.1%69 W · 95 L | -4.5wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -23%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0caa…b2bdbacked HGE Esports | 42c | 80$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.4 | 149 | 59.7%89 W · 60 L | +11.1wins | +0.07per pick | 52cpaid | +17.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7b28…ff4fbacked HGE Esports | 50c | 63.07$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.28 | 402 | 54.7%220 W · 182 L | +17.7wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f5…937fbacked NOVO Esports | 35c | 59.54$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.66 | 1,601 | 37.5%600 W · 1,001 L | -75.0wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -26.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4d2b…5271backed HGE Esports | 71c | 59.34$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.31 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.05per pick | 62cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6c47…7a9fbacked HGE Esports | 45c | 53.83$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.86 | 127 | 50.4%64 W · 63 L | +4.8wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | +17.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9bd9…084fbacked NOVO Esports | 25c | 51.89$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.97 | 196 | 61.7%121 W · 75 L | +20.0wins | +0.10per pick | 52cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x0ac5…f963backed HGE Esports | 58c | 45.67$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.08 | 112 | 46.4%52 W · 60 L | -3.3wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -11%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb155…9111backed HGE Esports | 63c | 36.78$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.54 | 11 | 72.7%8 W · 3 L | +3.5wins | +0.32per pick | 41cpaid | +55%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xdcab…b9bbbacked NOVO Esports | 40c | 30.35$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.18 | 42 | 45.2%19 W · 23 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -23.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf4f8…5bf1backed NOVO Esports | 44c | 30.17$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.33 | 664 | 38.1%253 W · 411 L | -31.8wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Valorant and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Valorant: NOVO Esports vs HGE Esports (BO3) - VCL Spain: Rising Phase 1 Playoffsthis page
- Games Total: O/U 2.5Under won
- Valorant: NOVO Esports vs HGE Esports - Map 1 WinnerHGE Esports won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.