Tennis · resolved market
Ruud vs. Cerundolo: Match O/U 22.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x8dab6ab68ea4d5d132c0e17e047048cac21df3f826e23d2474db51ae024f0d32
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $14,954
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $19,358
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $14,954 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 31 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6157…9fb4backed Over | 58c | 6,046$3,500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,500 | 97 | 64.9%63 W · 34 L | +9.7wins | +0.10per pick | 55cpaid | +19%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xb4d2…ce99backed Under | 45c | 4,477$2,037 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,440.43 | 4,882 | 38.8%1,892 W · 2,990 L | -17.9wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0385…acafbacked Over | 48c | 1,500$720 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$719.93 | 25 | 24%6 W · 19 L | -5.3wins | -0.21per pick | 45cpaid | -44.4%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Under | 52c | 1,392$724 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$668 | 4,126 | 44.6%1,842 W · 2,284 L | +13.3wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -17.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf7c2…9b8dbacked Under | 45c | 1,142$514 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$627.97 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.8wins | +0.60per pick | 40cpaid | +165.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xcd21…40aebacked Under | 23c | 940.61$215 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$725.69 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +1.2wins | +0.41per pick | 25cpaid | +167.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc4fe…601fbacked Under | 46c | 813.01$376 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$436.93 | 6,419 | 46.4%2,978 W · 3,441 L | -39.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6407…d360backed Under | 48c | 625$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$325 | 965 | 41.5%400 W · 565 L | +14.0wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb88a…f6adbacked Over | 55c | 600$330 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$330 | 113 | 45.1%51 W · 62 L | +4.0wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | +14%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5633…59bcbacked Over | 54c | 425$229 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$229.5 | 124 | 46%57 W · 67 L | +4.0wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +13.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1dd2…9e07backed Under | 46c | 235.87$108 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$127.37 | 2,404 | 51.7%1,244 W · 1,160 L | +12.8wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbcd6…f3c8backed Over | 54c | 212.19$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$114.58 | 472 | 51.3%242 W · 230 L | +4.7wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5dc8…e209backed Under | 48c | 124.36$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.36 | 396 | 48%190 W · 206 L | -3.8wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc22e…eab8backed Under | 45c | 120.11$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.97 | 271 | 39.1%106 W · 165 L | +2.2wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2bb8…7017backed Over | 54c | 87.72$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.37 | 119 | 42.9%51 W · 68 L | -6.8wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -14%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdf15…a1febacked Over | 54c | 87.72$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.37 | 217 | 45.2%98 W · 119 L | -10.1wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7b94…09dcbacked Over | 54c | 87.72$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.37 | 63 | 39.7%25 W · 38 L | -5.6wins | -0.09per pick | 49cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6888…4c79backed Over | 55c | 85$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.75 | 255 | 57.3%146 W · 109 L | +2.5wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3c32…7156backed Over | 55c | 85$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.75 | 803 | 55.4%445 W · 358 L | +5.3wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6cb1…1002backed Over | 54c | 73.63$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.56 | 114 | 51.8%59 W · 55 L | +2.1wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5e30…acbfbacked Under | 48c | 73$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.96 | 7,710 | 47.8%3,685 W · 4,025 L | +42.0wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x56fa…30cebacked Under | 45c | 66.67$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.67 | 203 | 36.5%74 W · 129 L | -6.4wins | -0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6d10…b3d0backed Under | 46c | 60$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.4 | 819 | 59.3%486 W · 333 L | +2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x56c4…fce5backed Over | 54c | 51$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.54 | 808 | 56.9%460 W · 348 L | +18.6wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9c76…c926backed Under | 47c | 51$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.03 | 4,070 | 39.7%1,617 W · 2,453 L | +92.7wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2b9c…8927backed Over | 53c | 51$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.03 | 83 | 50.6%42 W · 41 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x091a…8287backed Under | 52c | 47.16$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.64 | 119 | 48.7%58 W · 61 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9c5b…ec01backed Under | 46c | 39.86$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.34 | 250 | 42.4%106 W · 144 L | +6.4wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9d5b…1578backed Under | 46c | 38.47$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.77 | 255 | 50.6%129 W · 126 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdccf…faeabacked Under | 46c | 32.52$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.56 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +1.1wins | +0.15per pick | 42cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa14e…61dabacked Under | 46c | 30$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.2 | 9 | 77.8%7 W · 2 L | +2.5wins | +0.28per pick | 50cpaid | +45.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Ruud vs. Cerundolo: Match O/U 22.5this page
- National Bank Open: Casper Ruud vs Juan Manuel CerundoloCasper Ruud won
- Set 1 Winner: Ruud vs CerundoloRuud won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.