TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Dota2 · resolved market

Dota 2: Team Nemesis vs GLYPH - Game 2 Winner

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Team Nemesisof Team Nemesis, GLYPH
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Dota2every record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$13,698
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$14,532

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $13,698 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 44 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Dota2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Dota2
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x9eca…5a59backed Team Nemesis57c4,372$2,512 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,859.8840051.5%206 W · 194 L-6.9wins-0.02per pick53cpaid-4.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xbfd7…f0bfbacked GLYPH44c1,612$709 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$709.012,37847.2%1,123 W · 1,255 L+15.8wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-7.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x66fb…9f72backed Team Nemesis58c1,506$877 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$628.8754556.5%308 W · 237 L+10.4wins+0.02per pick55cpaid+1.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x69bf…0c5dbacked GLYPH38c1,048$395 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$394.6736547.7%174 W · 191 L-1.0wins0.00per pick48cpaid-7.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb635…bef0backed GLYPH42c999.99$420 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$419.9930336.6%111 W · 192 L-18.4wins-0.06per pick43cpaid-20.7%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xacf6…41fcbacked GLYPH42c778.23$329 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$329.2160646.9%284 W · 322 L+10.5wins+0.02per pick45cpaid+4.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3f3d…cfffbacked GLYPH20c750$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15036759.1%217 W · 150 L+5.8wins+0.02per pick58cpaid+3.8%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xe8e1…49ddbacked GLYPH43c537.72$231 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$230.8567043.3%290 W · 380 L-6.8wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-14%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7dfd…8d75backed GLYPH41c531.18$218 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$217.6224251.7%125 W · 117 L+21.0wins+0.09per pick43cpaid+15.2%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x505f…645ebacked GLYPH39c398.03$154 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$154.111,28045%576 W · 704 L-12.7wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-15%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd035…f165backed Team Nemesis63c395.99$249 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$146.5210735.5%38 W · 69 L-2.9wins-0.03per pick38cpaid-28.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x51db…f9b3backed GLYPH29c377.92$110 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$109.942,82843.6%1,234 W · 1,594 L-39.5wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-20.9%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x86bc…efbcbacked Team Nemesis67c354.88$237 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$117.5523555.7%131 W · 104 L-4.7wins-0.02per pick58cpaid-7.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3c5b…a736backed GLYPH14c323.81$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45.392955.2%16 W · 13 L+0.8wins+0.03per pick52cpaid-14.4%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x3dd1…2812backed Team Nemesis55c294.57$161 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$133.4211836.4%43 W · 75 L-3.5wins-0.03per pick39cpaid-12.8%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x249f…fed3backed GLYPH38c280.12$106 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$106.4562650.5%316 W · 310 L-3.3wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x540d…c8f9backed GLYPH37c234.05$87 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$86.638855.2%214 W · 174 L+29.8wins+0.08per pick47cpaid+7.4%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x672d…dbd7backed Team Nemesis63c155.21$98 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$57.4340047.5%190 W · 210 L+6.3wins+0.02per pick46cpaid-5.6%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x5565…e5d6backed Team Nemesis67c145.91$98 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$47.883764.9%24 W · 13 L+0.7wins+0.02per pick63cpaid-1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x02a4…6854backed Team Nemesis64c139.01$89 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$49.991,79755.8%1,003 W · 794 L+37.5wins+0.02per pick54cpaid-1.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x82bf…de71backed GLYPH33c113.1$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.7754753.6%293 W · 254 L+22.9wins+0.04per pick49cpaid+2.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xd439…21d3backed GLYPH45c108.31$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48.3431644.9%142 W · 174 L-18.9wins-0.06per pick51cpaid-17.9%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xad46…7bc9backed GLYPH47c102.16$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48.421118.2%2 W · 9 L-3.6wins-0.32per pick51cpaid-49.6%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0xf3ce…a57abacked GLYPH39c101.52$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.51,20259.3%713 W · 489 L+64.6wins+0.05per pick54cpaid+10.4%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xa74a…4893backed GLYPH42c99.71$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41.9236138.2%138 W · 223 L-20.4wins-0.06per pick44cpaid-32.1%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x1b41…2c02backed GLYPH41c93.89$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.5872637.5%272 W · 454 L+3.4wins0.00per pick37cpaid-4%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0xdd12…9debbacked Team Nemesis58c82.88$48 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$34.42352.2%12 W · 11 L+1.3wins+0.05per pick47cpaid-1.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x134c…eeefbacked GLYPH45c63.39$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.532751.9%14 W · 13 L+0.4wins+0.01per pick50cpaid-2.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa35c…a113backed GLYPH36c53.42$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.2361745.7%282 W · 335 L-12.4wins-0.02per pick48cpaid-7.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd866…55e0backed GLYPH40c51.42$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.383246.9%15 W · 17 L-1.1wins-0.03per pick50cpaid-11.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1995…84c6backed GLYPH34c50.84$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.291421.4%3 W · 11 L-2.4wins-0.17per pick39cpaid-46%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x3685…6d99backed GLYPH45c46.96$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.045839.7%23 W · 35 L-3.0wins-0.05per pick45cpaid-14%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x06d9…7cfbbacked GLYPH38c46.29$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.5920151.2%103 W · 98 L-4.9wins-0.02per pick54cpaid-5.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf39a…fe47backed Team Nemesis60c45.88$28 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.261,01345.5%461 W · 552 L-46.3wins-0.05per pick50cpaid-18.3%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xb19f…1c86backed GLYPH32c44.93$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.384837.5%18 W · 30 L+1.0wins+0.02per pick35cpaid-6%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x3123…b44dbacked Team Nemesis61c39.53$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.4212568%85 W · 40 L+12.7wins+0.10per pick58cpaid+13.2%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x3aff…c55ebacked GLYPH39c39.27$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.312365.2%15 W · 8 L+2.8wins+0.12per pick53cpaid+14.2%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x839f…c2cebacked GLYPH40c36.15$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.4619951.8%103 W · 96 L+1.4wins+0.01per pick51cpaid-3.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4092…f145backed Team Nemesis55c35.99$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.21241.7%5 W · 7 L-1.2wins-0.10per pick51cpaid-34%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x91d5…8a03backed GLYPH43c30.55$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.245347.2%25 W · 28 L-2.9wins-0.05per pick53cpaid-18.6%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x4133…165bbacked GLYPH37c28.95$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.611,27533.5%427 W · 848 L-15.6wins-0.01per pick35cpaid-18.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa18f…c57abacked Team Nemesis59c26.7$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.954351.2%22 W · 21 L-1.3wins-0.03per pick54cpaid-1.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5929…4684backed GLYPH40c25.42$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.171,26049.7%626 W · 634 L+21.7wins+0.02per pick48cpaid-5.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3492…983fbacked Team Nemesis59c19.5$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.067159.2%42 W · 29 L+5.3wins+0.07per pick52cpaid+3%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Dota2 and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.