Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 82-83°F on July 21?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x8ddd3f1ab2d373eacfc2489578290438af1ac4c53e7f93bc2e408f10564a4e25
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $7,663
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $9,339
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $7,663 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 31 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x9b42…ba1abacked Yes | 2c | 1,839$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -33.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 11c | 400.47$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.71 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x85d5…bbf0backed Yes | 21c | 357.54$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.88 | 640 | 21.7%139 W · 501 L | -23.6wins | -0.04per pick | 25cpaid | -43.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed Yes | 23c | 263.12$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.83 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8827…5d62backed No | 70c | 177.28$123 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.78 | 1,772 | 50.5%895 W · 877 L | +43.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x73d2…f9b7backed No | 72c | 160$115 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.8 | 1,082 | 65.6%710 W · 372 L | -15.8wins | -0.01per pick | 67cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77f0…2b1fbacked Yes | 9c | 153.77$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.17 | 3,028 | 49.8%1,509 W · 1,519 L | +16.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x56b3…3fa2backed Yes | 28c | 150$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.74 | 895 | 44.7%400 W · 495 L | +30.5wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb335…aac1backed Yes | 20c | 150$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 95 | 38.9%37 W · 58 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | 0%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f3e…5337backed No | 80c | 100$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 818 | 48.5%397 W · 421 L | +6.6wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0a0c…a853backed Yes | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 2,249 | 34.2%769 W · 1,480 L | +11.6wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3646…ba5abacked Yes | 21c | 95$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.85 | 407 | 41.3%168 W · 239 L | +32.5wins | +0.08per pick | 33cpaid | +21.9%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 19c | 77.26$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.8 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xeb58…407abacked Yes | 19c | 64.74$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.22 | 2,424 | 26.2%636 W · 1,788 L | +18.0wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdfbd…5a6cbacked No | 75c | 55$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.75 | 635 | 38.4%244 W · 391 L | +12.2wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbbb7…a11abacked No | 76c | 50$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.05 | 1,196 | 57.9%693 W · 503 L | +47.6wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked Yes | 24c | 45$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.8 | 2,262 | 39.6%895 W · 1,367 L | -56.8wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 78c | 37.44$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.17 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2ea5…0b15backed Yes | 35c | 34.2$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.97 | 54 | 38.9%21 W · 33 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0f12…59ddbacked No | 68c | 29.5$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.44 | 940 | 66.4%624 W · 316 L | +3.4wins | 0.00per pick | 66cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked No | 69c | 28$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.78 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x28ea…7367backed No | 76c | 25.66$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.16 | 1,896 | 61.5%1,166 W · 730 L | -5.9wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe695…538ebacked No | 69c | 23$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.13 | 818 | 55%450 W · 368 L | +1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xca75…0a64backed No | 80c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4 | 1,010 | 58.1%587 W · 423 L | -34.0wins | -0.03per pick | 61cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaf75…005cbacked No | 76c | 18.7$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.55 | 47 | 55.3%26 W · 21 L | -5.9wins | -0.13per pick | 68cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x6183…9f60backed No | 80c | 17.81$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.56 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.06per pick | 77cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd23f…94a1backed No | 78c | 17.2$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.74 | 2,617 | 59.5%1,556 W · 1,061 L | -41.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc518…2594backed No | 76c | 16.51$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.96 | 1,928 | 53.5%1,032 W · 896 L | +39.0wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x38e2…2909backed No | 69c | 16.05$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.05 | 3,479 | 53%1,845 W · 1,634 L | +72.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2706…c6bebacked No | 77c | 14.37$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.24 | 318 | 66%210 W · 108 L | -1.7wins | -0.01per pick | 67cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf576…a786backed No | 77c | 13.74$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.16 | 376 | 69.4%261 W · 115 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 69cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 82-83°F on July 21?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be 79°F or below on July 21?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 80-81°F on July 21?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 84-85°F on July 21?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 86-87°F on July 21?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 88-89°F on July 21?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.