Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 84-85°F on July 21?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x950bd51cb43184ec509d7b26612392789fbf793f85b161203915c57a4967db29
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $7,835
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $9,225
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $7,835 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a prediction-market account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 52 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 56c | 1,150$650 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$500.45 | 8,309 | 49.2%4,089 W · 4,220 L | +271.0wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 44c | 487.87$216 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$216.11 | 10,848 | 37.5%4,070 W · 6,778 L | +432.8wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x802d…d59abacked Yes | 39c | 442.61$173 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$172.79 | 1,298 | 41.7%541 W · 757 L | +53.2wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x46f1…701fbacked No | 62c | 351.82$216 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$135.44 | 2,877 | 55.3%1,590 W · 1,287 L | -59.3wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbbb7…a11abacked Yes | 50c | 235.3$118 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$117.51 | 1,433 | 57.4%822 W · 611 L | +45.2wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 46c | 232.77$107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$107.34 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed Yes | 43c | 179.6$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.34 | 4,622 | 47.5%2,195 W · 2,427 L | -182.6wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -13%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8827…5d62backed No | 58c | 177.59$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.09 | 1,801 | 50.4%907 W · 894 L | +39.5wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 55c | 136.02$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.84 | 6,111 | 49.3%3,012 W · 3,099 L | -116.0wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1bbd…3bedbacked No | 53c | 118.64$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.76 | 375 | 41.6%156 W · 219 L | -52.4wins | -0.14per pick | 56cpaid | -28%equal weight | 35-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xe2be…ff33backed No | 55c | 115.08$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.45 | 1,203 | 48.9%588 W · 615 L | -24.7wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 49c | 109.15$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53 | 3,980 | 47.3%1,884 W · 2,096 L | +71.1wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2ef2…7f72backed Yes | 47c | 102.72$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.28 | 191 | 37.2%71 W · 120 L | -5.4wins | -0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5a3b…957bbacked No | 60c | 101.88$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.63 | 377 | 56.2%212 W · 165 L | +30.7wins | +0.08per pick | 48cpaid | +18.1%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x56b3…3fa2backed Yes | 56c | 99.53$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.53 | 929 | 44.3%412 W · 517 L | +31.7wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x05b9…0e6dbacked No | 46c | 95.42$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.42 | 43 | 58.1%25 W · 18 L | +3.3wins | +0.08per pick | 51cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe695…538ebacked Yes | 54c | 90$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49 | 888 | 55.7%495 W · 393 L | +9.1wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9b42…ba1abacked Yes | 60c | 85$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.75 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -33.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa990…dc90backed Yes | 38c | 84.21$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 591 | 44.5%263 W · 328 L | +8.0wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x942e…be27backed No | 58c | 75$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.5 | 2,036 | 61.7%1,256 W · 780 L | +1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x85d5…bbf0backed Yes | 44c | 73.75$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.43 | 663 | 21.7%144 W · 519 L | -27.0wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -44.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1a29…3cc9backed No | 60c | 67.76$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.99 | 701 | 48.4%339 W · 362 L | -5.9wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5548…9cc6backed No | 40c | 61.9$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.09 | 198 | 57.6%114 W · 84 L | +12.2wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +11.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 58c | 60$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.2 | 3,111 | 61.7%1,921 W · 1,190 L | -31.3wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2ff2…01b9backed Yes | 64c | 50.58$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.41 | 869 | 52.7%458 W · 411 L | -3.9wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x90ae…2475backed Yes | 53c | 47.43$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.14 | 571 | 50.4%288 W · 283 L | +4.0wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa834…1c25backed Yes | 49c | 45$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.2 | 1,048 | 34.5%362 W · 686 L | +24.7wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x28ea…7367backed Yes | 44c | 44.95$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.78 | 2,154 | 62.2%1,339 W · 815 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdfca…645abacked Yes | 42c | 41.99$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.57 | 140 | 25.7%36 W · 104 L | -9.3wins | -0.07per pick | 32cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 45c | 41.82$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23 | 9,885 | 45.9%4,540 W · 5,345 L | -302.8wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcca3…7450backed Yes | 40c | 41.44$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.58 | 426 | 43.2%184 W · 242 L | +9.7wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6ae4…7c46backed No | 60c | 40.79$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.32 | 352 | 64.8%228 W · 124 L | +4.3wins | +0.01per pick | 64cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xca1f…d282backed No | 59c | 40$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.4 | 1,803 | 63.2%1,140 W · 663 L | -8.5wins | 0.00per pick | 64cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf333…ba41backed No | 62c | 38.39$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.59 | 880 | 49.5%436 W · 444 L | -26.3wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 59c | 37.44$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.35 | 4,435 | 65.2%2,891 W · 1,544 L | +18.7wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8edc…80d8backed Yes | 41c | 35.85$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.7 | 1,179 | 56.4%665 W · 514 L | +19.0wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 42c | 30.44$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.66 | 12,879 | 20.4%2,624 W · 10,255 L | -2,688.9wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -65.5%equal weight | 27-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x10ab…b2e8backed Yes | 60c | 30$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 70 | 40%28 W · 42 L | -5.9wins | -0.08per pick | 48cpaid | -22.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8251…879dbacked Yes | 67c | 29.74$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +0.5wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +18.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdca4…e93dbacked Yes | 56c | 25$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.1 | 2,548 | 45.4%1,157 W · 1,391 L | +23.6wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x67a8…7493backed No | 56c | 25$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11 | 30 | 60%18 W · 12 L | +1.6wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x41e5…e283backed No | 51c | 25$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.26 | 1,282 | 56.7%727 W · 555 L | -28.5wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x56e3…9a51backed No | 40c | 25$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 108 | 30.6%33 W · 75 L | -10.5wins | -0.10per pick | 40cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x191e…ef6bbacked No | 55c | 21.58$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.64 | 32 | 56.3%18 W · 14 L | -1.3wins | -0.04per pick | 60cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeb07…5b0fbacked No | 57c | 21$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.03 | 120 | 60%72 W · 48 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 61cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2a20…89d2backed No | 62c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.6 | 317 | 66.9%212 W · 105 L | -2.9wins | -0.01per pick | 68cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc865…7477backed No | 56c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.8 | 176 | 33.5%59 W · 117 L | -34.2wins | -0.19per pick | 53cpaid | -41.2%equal weight | 31-0.17 edge/pick |
| 0x914e…8355backed No | 57c | 18.7$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.03 | 168 | 59.5%100 W · 68 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0cd7…6e79backed No | 57c | 18$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.74 | 23 | 78.3%18 W · 5 L | +4.2wins | +0.18per pick | 60cpaid | +32.2%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xe54c…2c69backed No | 59c | 17$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.89 | 255 | 60.8%155 W · 100 L | +16.2wins | +0.06per pick | 54cpaid | +14%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa2ed…9d98backed No | 60c | 17$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.8 | 822 | 68.7%565 W · 257 L | +72.3wins | +0.09per pick | 60cpaid | +17.4%equal weight | 59+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xb077…74d3backed No | 60c | 16.8$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.72 | 679 | 44.6%303 W · 376 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 84-85°F on July 21?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be 79°F or below on July 21?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 80-81°F on July 21?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 82-83°F on July 21?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 86-87°F on July 21?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 88-89°F on July 21?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.