TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Weather · resolved market

Will the highest temperature in Munich be 19°C on April 26?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$22,584
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$26,572

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $22,584 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 87 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Weather
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xc906…3b88backed No3c2,816$72 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$72.211163.6%7 W · 4 L+2.2wins+0.20per pick44cpaid+15.3%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x8b9e…0948backed Yes78c509$399 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$109.7310845.4%49 W · 59 L+4.3wins+0.04per pick41cpaid+0.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x0b87…9414backed No61c327.84$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$199.982,00138.4%768 W · 1,233 L+1.7wins0.00per pick38cpaid-7.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc34f…7d2ebacked No31c301.8$92 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$92.4112,17346.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L-42.2wins0.00per pick47cpaid-13.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7b20…bc23backed No68c293.97$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$199.981165.8%534 W · 277 L-37.1wins-0.05per pick70cpaid-6.7%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x1cdd…e595backed No15c251.24$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.377,1489.3%666 W · 6,482 L-1,105.8wins-0.15per pick25cpaid-75.9%equal weight33-0.15 edge/pick
0x1361…f12bbacked Yes34c242.89$83 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$159.541,92433.8%651 W · 1,273 L+29.2wins+0.02per pick32cpaid+1%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x1e52…91d6backed No6c238.77$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.9460523.3%141 W · 464 L-21.1wins-0.03per pick27cpaid-22.9%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xb06a…52f5backed Yes72c216.33$156 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$60.45,83236.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L+211.1wins+0.04per pick33cpaid-24.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xfeb3…8d26backed Yes42c163.73$69 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$94.966950.7%35 W · 34 L+3.8wins+0.06per pick45cpaid+7.6%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xfd36…a832backed Yes38c160.54$61 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$99.765043.4%282 W · 368 L-3.5wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-2.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1e57…ddc3backed No63c153.79$96 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$96.261040%4 W · 6 L-1.5wins-0.15per pick55cpaid-46.9%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x85c0…e01dbacked No17c141.58$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.651,03224.3%251 W · 781 L+40.9wins+0.04per pick20cpaid+14.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x6bee…7e78backed Yes41c118.62$49 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$69.511,07623.5%253 W · 823 L+69.1wins+0.06per pick17cpaid+14.2%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes28c103.51$29 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$74.913,85923.4%903 W · 2,956 L+128.4wins+0.03per pick20cpaid+10%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xa045…282abacked Yes37c100.52$37 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$63.423056.7%17 W · 13 L+0.8wins+0.03per pick54cpaid+7.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa128…541ebacked No46c99.99$46 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$462944.8%13 W · 16 L+0.7wins+0.02per pick42cpaid-0.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa49b…7054backed Yes40c97.22$39 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$58.697,48137.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L+97.4wins+0.01per pick36cpaid+6.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0b25…439fbacked Yes39c93.9$37 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$57.281662.5%10 W · 6 L+2.6wins+0.16per pick46cpaid+92.1%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x510f…a43cbacked No17c85.69$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.23,47433.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L-175.6wins-0.05per pick39cpaid-28.4%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x94b1…27cbbacked No61c81.48$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.9897570.6%688 W · 287 L+5.2wins+0.01per pick70cpaid-0.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xea4a…39c8backed Yes41c80.9$33 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$47.5922335.9%80 W · 143 L+5.3wins+0.02per pick33cpaid+9.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0619…0379backed Yes31c79.3$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$54.5354857.5%315 W · 233 L+13.1wins+0.02per pick55cpaid+3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xb40e…7cc9backed No26c75.47$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.3212,49819.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L-2,667.3wins-0.21per pick41cpaid-66.8%equal weight26-0.21 edge/pick
0xa054…a95dbacked No65c75.12$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48.9939966.2%264 W · 135 L+33.6wins+0.08per pick58cpaid+20.8%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x5f21…b376backed Yes36c73.14$26 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$47.1517,35519.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L+396.7wins+0.02per pick18cpaid+15.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x8b5d…57d3backed Yes39c65.73$26 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$40.174338.2%284 W · 459 L+17.8wins+0.02per pick36cpaid+6.2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x3334…69b0backed Yes78c64.61$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.2446444.4%206 W · 258 L-18.2wins-0.04per pick48cpaid-12.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x5c38…f194backed No34c63.99$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.052,51747.2%1,188 W · 1,329 L+52.6wins+0.02per pick45cpaid+5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8f34…2f50backed No36c54.35$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.574,12060.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L+32.7wins+0.01per pick60cpaid-4.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7c63…93d4backed No37c51.49$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.9110,35437.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L+417.6wins+0.04per pick34cpaid+16.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x2189…13f1backed No67c51.34$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.163444.1%15 W · 19 L-4.4wins-0.13per pick57cpaid-27.6%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xae8f…c820backed Yes38c50.94$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$31.5863538.1%242 W · 393 L+6.2wins+0.01per pick37cpaid-0.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x906f…371abacked No60c50.13$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.132,49569.9%1,744 W · 751 L+80.3wins+0.03per pick67cpaid+5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xfba3…4e15backed No50c50$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2527851.8%144 W · 134 L+4.3wins+0.02per pick50cpaid+2.5%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xd54b…b008backed Yes55c50$28 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22.5450%2 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.04per pick54cpaid-9.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2986…b3a9backed No30c49.99$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$152,99531.4%940 W · 2,055 L+41.6wins+0.01per pick30cpaid+4.6%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x05d4…ae97backed Yes31c47.42$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$32.793641.7%15 W · 21 L+4.2wins+0.12per pick30cpaid+22.6%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xc7d0…1f8abacked Yes53c46$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21.624,34729.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L+19.8wins0.00per pick29cpaid-8.6%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x53bc…be7cbacked No65c45.92$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.7362770.5%442 W · 185 L-0.2wins0.00per pick71cpaid+0.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5576…59e9backed Yes32c43.64$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29.8817033.5%57 W · 113 L-2.0wins-0.01per pick35cpaid-3.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5964…35dfbacked No25c40.99$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.351,27933.6%430 W · 849 L-6.3wins0.00per pick34cpaid-7.2%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x7453…aee6backed Yes32c40.8$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27.753551.4%18 W · 17 L+2.6wins+0.07per pick44cpaid+13.2%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x5fdf…28a2backed Yes39c40.54$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24.7356131.7%178 W · 383 L+2.6wins0.00per pick31cpaid-6.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x98e9…2ea5backed No62c40.32$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2517855.6%99 W · 79 L+4.8wins+0.03per pick53cpaid+8.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xde08…b228backed No48c39.5$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.963366.7%22 W · 11 L-0.5wins-0.02per pick68cpaid-2.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfc4d…6e9dbacked Yes32c38.65$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26.23336.4%12 W · 21 L+0.5wins+0.02per pick35cpaid-6.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa38c…ff1bbacked Yes75c38$29 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.481266.7%8 W · 4 L-0.4wins-0.04per pick70cpaid-9.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb964…927fbacked Yes32c36.7$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24.8318327.3%50 W · 133 L+2.6wins+0.01per pick26cpaid-11.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc423…2ccdbacked Yes69c34.95$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.7152444.1%231 W · 293 L-9.0wins-0.02per pick46cpaid-6.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xae47…638dbacked No63c34.81$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.8652571.2%374 W · 151 L+4.7wins+0.01per pick70cpaid+0.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4248…60abbacked No69c33.07$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.822,21958.7%1,303 W · 916 L-11.5wins-0.01per pick59cpaid-2.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7f7b…bc29backed No62c32.14$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2014666.4%97 W · 49 L-3.0wins-0.02per pick69cpaid-4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9f3b…b13bbacked Yes64c30.27$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.993246.9%15 W · 17 L-1.6wins-0.05per pick52cpaid-15.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes69c30$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.452,11936.1%764 W · 1,355 L-12.1wins-0.01per pick37cpaid-26.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe422…4d64backed No45c30$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.52,06543.6%900 W · 1,165 L-11.3wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-1.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x39c9…b108backed No70c29.99$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.1434457%196 W · 148 L+8.6wins+0.02per pick54cpaid+2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x34ab…4e36backed No65c29.69$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.319772.6%143 W · 54 L+4.7wins+0.02per pick70cpaid+3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0a84…171fbacked Yes45c29.41$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.0625239.7%100 W · 152 L-0.3wins0.00per pick40cpaid-3.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xeb54…d452backed No68c28.99$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.714,52565.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L-134.0wins-0.03per pick69cpaid-4.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xc6d8…b90dbacked No36c28.86$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.4383459.8%499 W · 335 L+27.5wins+0.03per pick57cpaid+6.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x4414…d74cbacked No40c26.57$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.591353.8%7 W · 6 L+1.6wins+0.12per pick42cpaid-3.3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x1aba…6262backed Yes74c26.32$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.84475%3 W · 1 L+0.8wins+0.21per pick54cpaid+4.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5eb8…207ebacked Yes74c26.28$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.791384.6%11 W · 2 L+2.6wins+0.20per pick64cpaid+30.8%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x796a…e815backed Yes68c24.99$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$85147.1%24 W · 27 L+0.4wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-0.5%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0xd78c…a66ebacked No76c24.98$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.9872837.8%275 W · 453 L-12.0wins-0.02per pick39cpaid-3.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x139c…97c4backed Yes48c24.76$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.791127.3%3 W · 8 L-0.2wins-0.02per pick30cpaid-33.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x26dd…cdbabacked Yes80c24.5$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4.9955.6%5 W · 4 L-1.5wins-0.16per pick72cpaid-24.6%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xb980…f73bbacked Yes73c24.01$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.51172.7%8 W · 3 L+1.4wins+0.13per pick60cpaid+10.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x5d6f…0e20backed Yes61c24$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.3691444.7%409 W · 505 L+16.7wins+0.02per pick43cpaid+4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc24f…81d3backed No64c23.65$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.0698571%699 W · 286 L+5.7wins+0.01per pick70cpaid-0.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8971…809dbacked No61c22.73$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.761,95946%901 W · 1,058 L-51.3wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-9.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xda91…d760backed Yes65c22.4$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.841,01040.3%407 W · 603 L+16.9wins+0.02per pick39cpaid+1.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe7c9…d2b8backed No61c21.66$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.2153547.5%254 W · 281 L-8.6wins-0.02per pick49cpaid+3.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x245e…eab4backed No76c20.92$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.98574.1%63 W · 22 L-2.7wins-0.03per pick77cpaid-4%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xd228…ea6fbacked No70c20.78$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.6222934.1%78 W · 151 L-8.4wins-0.04per pick38cpaid-13.2%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x3f30…f8debacked Yes55c20.05$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.983,83047.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L+63.6wins+0.02per pick45cpaid+4.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1b78…e589backed Yes76c20$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4.837942.5%161 W · 218 L-3.0wins-0.01per pick43cpaid-8.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x25a3…a59bbacked Yes56c19.99$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.82045%9 W · 11 L-1.7wins-0.09per pick54cpaid-19.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x8208…a737backed No62c19.67$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.2522675.7%171 W · 55 L+9.0wins+0.04per pick72cpaid+6.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x429c…5f41backed Yes60c19.6$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.7910745.8%49 W · 58 L-7.4wins-0.07per pick53cpaid-13.4%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x0d10…a713backed Yes54c19.53$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.9814332.2%46 W · 97 L+14.7wins+0.10per pick22cpaid+81.2%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x3cb7…1a88backed Yes54c19.08$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.7899949.5%495 W · 504 L+1.3wins0.00per pick49cpaid+2.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa22f…af41backed No60c18.74$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.2912057.5%69 W · 51 L-8.1wins-0.07per pick64cpaid-11%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x1632…ad5abacked No65c18.07$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.6950261%306 W · 196 L-17.9wins-0.04per pick65cpaid-7.2%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xc52a…e37abacked No65c15.44$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.0618272%131 W · 51 L-1.0wins-0.01per pick73cpaid-1.4%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xb167…9c59backed Yes79c13$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2.73955.6%5 W · 4 L+0.2wins+0.03per pick53cpaid-2.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.