Dota2 · resolved market
Dota 2: BetBoom Team vs Aurora - Game 1 Winner
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x8e08c9968f3763fd876c99fd73c8f10f125744d85ae7cd3677567b125285b643
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- BetBoom Teamof BetBoom Team, Aurora
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Dota2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $12,237
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $13,531
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $12,237 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 29 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Dota2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Dota2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5b5f…3397backed Aurora | 23c | 4,766$1,100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,100 | 237 | 46.8%111 W · 126 L | +4.3wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfadd…3955backed BetBoom Team | 75c | 1,499$1,124 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$374.72 | 38 | 44.7%17 W · 21 L | -1.1wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked BetBoom Team | 67c | 1,471$987 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$484.5 | 738 | 41.7%308 W · 430 L | -5.2wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked BetBoom Team | 74c | 649.39$480 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$169.43 | 2,012 | 44.2%889 W · 1,123 L | +36.6wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbe5a…13f5backed Aurora | 39c | 574.33$222 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$221.6 | 450 | 46.7%210 W · 240 L | -11.2wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaacf…5f84backed BetBoom Team | 67c | 500$335 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$165 | 592 | 50.5%299 W · 293 L | -20.7wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -10%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfdc0…4b85backed Aurora | 37c | 465.7$172 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$171.66 | 1,577 | 43.9%692 W · 885 L | -10.4wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf9b5…09eebacked BetBoom Team | 63c | 451.44$284 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$167.03 | 551 | 57%314 W · 237 L | +17.4wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1197…8311backed BetBoom Team | 71c | 282.66$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.66 | 126 | 61.1%77 W · 49 L | +4.8wins | +0.04per pick | 57cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Aurora | 33c | 274.43$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.56 | 1,901 | 47.6%905 W · 996 L | +4.6wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd0b0…ad2cbacked Aurora | 31c | 271.92$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.71 | 210 | 62.4%131 W · 79 L | +5.3wins | +0.03per pick | 60cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfc8f…3782backed Aurora | 16c | 206.45$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.22 | 141 | 42.6%60 W · 81 L | +4.9wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x72c2…5e74backed Aurora | 26c | 200$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52 | 793 | 43.6%346 W · 447 L | +38.4wins | +0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x033e…1bb9backed Aurora | 49c | 180.42$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.87 | 568 | 48.8%277 W · 291 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1318…0af2backed BetBoom Team | 77c | 129.79$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.85 | 176 | 33.5%59 W · 117 L | +6.6wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x57d5…0bbdbacked Aurora | 9c | 112.5$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 531 | 39.5%210 W · 321 L | -37.2wins | -0.07per pick | 47cpaid | -29.6%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4a3d…e051backed Aurora | 14c | 80$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 30 | 6.7%2 W · 28 L | -1.4wins | -0.05per pick | 11cpaid | -67.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xec98…afcdbacked Aurora | 16c | 76.89$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.24 | 1,821 | 45%820 W · 1,001 L | +33.5wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0a4f…5459backed BetBoom Team | 61c | 73.77$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.77 | 110 | 51.8%57 W · 53 L | -3.9wins | -0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x309d…4287backed BetBoom Team | 64c | 66.78$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.13 | 76 | 48.7%37 W · 39 L | +1.3wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x13c6…ff7dbacked Aurora | 43c | 63.26$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.04 | 39 | 35.9%14 W · 25 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x274f…3757backed Aurora | 38c | 62.2$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.37 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.38per pick | 38cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3abf…b143backed Aurora | 30c | 57$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.1 | 336 | 45.5%153 W · 183 L | +4.2wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x02a4…6854backed BetBoom Team | 65c | 50$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.6 | 1,797 | 55.8%1,003 W · 794 L | +37.5wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc85d…6832backed Aurora | 22c | 45.38$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.08 | 124 | 38.7%48 W · 76 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -10%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3d4…6297backed BetBoom Team | 65c | 27.08$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.45 | 38 | 39.5%15 W · 23 L | -3.6wins | -0.09per pick | 49cpaid | -31.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x727d…1589backed BetBoom Team | 72c | 23.59$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.52 | 80 | 37.5%30 W · 50 L | -3.5wins | -0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1709…c148backed BetBoom Team | 75c | 20.71$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.2 | 483 | 52.4%253 W · 230 L | -2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked BetBoom Team | 64c | 16.41$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.86 | 869 | 49%426 W · 443 L | -3.5wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -15%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Dota2 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Dota 2: BetBoom Team vs Aurora - Game 1 Winnerthis page
- Dota 2: BetBoom Team vs Aurora (BO3) - FISSURE Universe Episode 8 PlayoffsAurora won
- Dota 2: BetBoom Team vs Aurora - Game 2 WinnerAurora won
- Games Total: O/U 2.5Over won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.