Mls · resolved market
Will Chicago Fire FC vs. Charlotte FC end in a draw?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x8e16389aa430636199c58e26f4cbbe08493f8a3b2fbd48d6a73e7322b9cbffc8
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Mlsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $13,749
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $13,657
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $13,749 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 23 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Mls is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Mls | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Yes | 20c | 2,353$471 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$470.6 | 993 | 40.1%398 W · 595 L | +11.8wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2d6a…8addbacked No | 80c | 1,402$1,121 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$280.35 | 728 | 50.7%369 W · 359 L | -4.4wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Yes | 17c | 1,023$174 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$173.86 | 263 | 45.2%119 W · 144 L | -1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7d0c…a3b7backed No | 80c | 973.13$779 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$194.63 | 915 | 53%485 W · 430 L | +4.7wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Yes | 18c | 713$128 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$128.34 | 1,270 | 48%610 W · 660 L | -7.8wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Yes | 20c | 586.96$119 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$118.58 | 3,012 | 43.5%1,311 W · 1,701 L | -29.7wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed No | 66c | 477.77$315 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$163.03 | 1,880 | 36.6%688 W · 1,192 L | -7.3wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked Yes | 20c | 363.45$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.69 | 971 | 46.1%448 W · 523 L | -6.1wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x775d…6bebbacked Yes | 24c | 278$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.28 | 366 | 46.7%171 W · 195 L | -7.7wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc243…5e94backed Yes | 17c | 202$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.34 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | +14.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x629d…756cbacked Yes | 29c | 200$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.9 | 444 | 47.3%210 W · 234 L | -1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcf73…0215backed No | 80c | 188.05$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.67 | 702 | 49.7%349 W · 353 L | -7.1wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x90aa…00f1backed Yes | 14c | 141.32$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 24 | 8.3%2 W · 22 L | -3.5wins | -0.15per pick | 23cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2d67…3667backed Yes | 20c | 104.47$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.01 | 71 | 47.9%34 W · 37 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd37a…2358backed No | 80c | 90.74$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.15 | 803 | 58%466 W · 337 L | +5.9wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9e3e…f882backed Yes | 20c | 87.57$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.51 | 394 | 35.8%141 W · 253 L | -6.0wins | -0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe8e0…7eecbacked Yes | 43c | 53.08$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.82 | 314 | 46.5%146 W · 168 L | -10.7wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc785…4ef2backed No | 71c | 38$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.04 | 172 | 44.8%77 W · 95 L | -3.7wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2c46…dac9backed No | 65c | 37.43$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.03 | 967 | 56.8%549 W · 418 L | +73.1wins | +0.08per pick | 49cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x67af…61eebacked No | 70c | 32$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.62 | 443 | 50.6%224 W · 219 L | -6.1wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x489d…f6e3backed No | 58c | 30$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.6 | 260 | 50.4%131 W · 129 L | +1.9wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked No | 68c | 23$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.36 | 802 | 49.8%399 W · 403 L | +8.0wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2568…ef92backed No | 80c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4 | 52 | 63.5%33 W · 19 L | +2.0wins | +0.04per pick | 60cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Mls and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Chicago Fire FC vs. Charlotte FC end in a draw?this page
- Will Charlotte FC win on 2026-08-01?No won
- Will Chicago Fire FC win on 2026-08-01?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.