NHL · resolved market
AHL: Wilkes-Barre/Scranton Penguins vs. Springfield Thunderbirds
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x8e18539a9aee55ba01377101aa1519e62373d4e2f735fb41f7827c8690c2a26a
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Springfield Thunderbirdsof Wilkes-Barre/Scranton Penguins, Springfield Thunderbirds
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NHLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $2,897
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $3,273
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $2,897 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 29 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NHL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NHL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x63bf…a678backed Wilkes-Barre/Scranton Penguins | 68c | 625.37$425 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$424.96 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.12per pick | 62cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x25d8…a71fbacked Wilkes-Barre/Scranton Penguins | 68c | 499.98$340 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$339.99 | 88 | 60.2%53 W · 35 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 61cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb4d2…ce99backed Springfield Thunderbirds | 30c | 324.06$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$225.23 | 222 | 50.5%112 W · 110 L | +7.0wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Springfield Thunderbirds | 37c | 273.58$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$173.47 | 1,846 | 57.2%1,055 W · 791 L | +85.0wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5e30…acbfbacked Springfield Thunderbirds | 32c | 195$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$132.6 | 831 | 49.5%411 W · 420 L | -9.2wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xddb6…b9b3backed Springfield Thunderbirds | 42c | 155.34$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.43 | 30 | 63.3%19 W · 11 L | +2.9wins | +0.10per pick | 54cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xeab6…d4c6backed Wilkes-Barre/Scranton Penguins | 25c | 144.56$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.47 | 119 | 33.6%40 W · 79 L | -10.1wins | -0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -26.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Springfield Thunderbirds | 49c | 143.29$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.14 | 1,028 | 53.2%547 W · 481 L | +21.4wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4247…91c4backed Wilkes-Barre/Scranton Penguins | 69c | 140.29$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.77 | 46 | 34.8%16 W · 30 L | -3.3wins | -0.07per pick | 42cpaid | -25.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x008d…b839backed Springfield Thunderbirds | 78c | 105$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.75 | 450 | 69.3%312 W · 138 L | +51.6wins | +0.11per pick | 58cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x6318…46b1backed Springfield Thunderbirds | 32c | 100.08$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.08 | 64 | 37.5%24 W · 40 L | +3.3wins | +0.05per pick | 32cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x255a…3435backed Springfield Thunderbirds | 32c | 100$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.2 | 295 | 33.6%99 W · 196 L | +4.6wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd610…4c9abacked Springfield Thunderbirds | 36c | 99.99$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64 | 924 | 44.5%411 W · 513 L | +11.2wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0362…449ebacked Springfield Thunderbirds | 36c | 99.99$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64 | 454 | 47.8%217 W · 237 L | -17.4wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8dd8…9a1cbacked Wilkes-Barre/Scranton Penguins | 48c | 94.26$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.03 | 239 | 50.6%121 W · 118 L | +11.3wins | +0.05per pick | 46cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x58cc…2296backed Wilkes-Barre/Scranton Penguins | 69c | 86.96$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -1.4wins | -0.16per pick | 60cpaid | -26%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa1ed…af7bbacked Springfield Thunderbirds | 37c | 81.1$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.1 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.19per pick | 56cpaid | +41.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x03ba…ab49backed Springfield Thunderbirds | 32c | 78.13$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.13 | 19 | 63.2%12 W · 7 L | +1.8wins | +0.09per pick | 54cpaid | +21.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5d05…f729backed Wilkes-Barre/Scranton Penguins | 64c | 75.5$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.32 | 88 | 44.3%39 W · 49 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd37a…2358backed Wilkes-Barre/Scranton Penguins | 63c | 73.37$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.22 | 865 | 49.1%425 W · 440 L | -4.6wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3e30…d312backed Springfield Thunderbirds | 37c | 56.76$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.76 | 13 | 69.2%9 W · 4 L | +4.0wins | +0.31per pick | 38cpaid | +81%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked Wilkes-Barre/Scranton Penguins | 66c | 55.89$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.89 | 1,384 | 47.1%652 W · 732 L | +25.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x61f6…e497backed Springfield Thunderbirds | 37c | 31$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.53 | 100 | 66%66 W · 34 L | +8.6wins | +0.09per pick | 57cpaid | +15.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x43d7…1c75backed Springfield Thunderbirds | 34c | 30$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.8 | 202 | 45%91 W · 111 L | -7.5wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfee8…9197backed Wilkes-Barre/Scranton Penguins | 64c | 27.98$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.91 | 29 | 48.3%14 W · 15 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +11%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x39dd…7af9backed Springfield Thunderbirds | 67c | 24$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.92 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x88c7…febcbacked Wilkes-Barre/Scranton Penguins | 65c | 22.64$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.72 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +11.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7795…08dfbacked Wilkes-Barre/Scranton Penguins | 68c | 16.18$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.68per pick | 68cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3a0e…b0babacked Wilkes-Barre/Scranton Penguins | 63c | 16$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.08 | 98 | 46.9%46 W · 52 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NHL and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.