TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

MLB · resolved market

Spread: Philadelphia Phillies (-4.5)

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Philadelphia Philliesof Philadelphia Phillies, Pittsburgh Pirates
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$4,136
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$4,218

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $4,136 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 15 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in MLB
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x2f4e…1fb8backed Pittsburgh Pirates38c1,284$491 inLost-$490.563,79245.8%1,738 W · 2,054 L-5.5wins0.00per pick46cpaid-6.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbca0…9705backed Philadelphia Phillies53c1,177$619 inWon+$558.88,47052.6%4,459 W · 4,011 L+510.0wins+0.06per pick47cpaid+5.3%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xfe78…0319backed Philadelphia Phillies62c879.84$543 inWon+$337.1210,84651.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L+137.6wins+0.01per pick50cpaid-0.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa39a…1246backed Pittsburgh Pirates55c799.98$439 inLost-$438.9928258.5%165 W · 117 L+11.7wins+0.04per pick54cpaid+5.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x161a…4103backed Philadelphia Phillies63c599$377 inWon+$221.634,03557.7%2,330 W · 1,705 L+72.2wins+0.02per pick56cpaid+3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe401…7b88backed Pittsburgh Pirates38c564$213 inLost-$213.169,72846.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L+32.8wins0.00per pick46cpaid-8.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5c18…2f76backed Pittsburgh Pirates8c187$15 inLost-$14.9657046.8%267 W · 303 L+14.0wins+0.02per pick44cpaid+1.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xdb83…1e50backed Pittsburgh Pirates37c174.22$64 inLost-$64.464,47848.8%2,186 W · 2,292 L-47.7wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-4.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xec45…6c6dbacked Philadelphia Phillies66c138$91 inWon+$46.9217058.2%99 W · 71 L+1.2wins+0.01per pick58cpaid+2.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0520…3efdbacked Philadelphia Phillies52c130$68 inWon+$62.453261.8%329 W · 203 L+20.6wins+0.04per pick58cpaid+4.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xff34…694bbacked Pittsburgh Pirates48c120$58 inLost-$57.65,23456.8%2,971 W · 2,263 L+130.4wins+0.02per pick54cpaid+2.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xf898…e720backed Philadelphia Phillies43c52$22 inWon+$29.516,30348.2%3,041 W · 3,262 L+181.4wins+0.03per pick45cpaid+0.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x70fc…ab12backed Pittsburgh Pirates40c25$10 inLost-$101,36754.3%742 W · 625 L+16.5wins+0.01per pick53cpaid+1.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa04d…1488backed Philadelphia Phillies60c25$15 inWon+$1044737.4%167 W · 280 L-24.1wins-0.05per pick43cpaid-14.9%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xa6a7…e5d4backed Philadelphia Phillies66c21.07$14 inWon+$7.2432857.9%190 W · 138 L+3.0wins+0.01per pick57cpaid+0.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 14 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.