MLB · resolved market
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Pittsburgh Pirates: O/U 8.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf4062277de39ad6579faf87c141bf92f130424ab32b563cc641f6d896787a27b
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $117,348
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $117,478
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $117,348 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 65 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x9495…9a27backed Over | 48c | 92,683$44,488 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44,487.62 | 2,293 | 48.1%1,103 W · 1,190 L | -24.0wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x531b…6022backed Under | 52c | 81,259$42,254 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39,004.09 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +2.0wins | +0.25per pick | 50cpaid | +50%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x27f7…44b0backed Under | 52c | 15,491$8,055 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7,435.68 | 925 | 54.1%500 W · 425 L | +23.5wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x86fb…03d4backed Over | 49c | 3,551$1,735 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,734.6 | 1,215 | 47.6%578 W · 637 L | -19.4wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5d1d…afd2backed Over | 49c | 3,540$1,735 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,734.6 | 1,106 | 48.7%539 W · 567 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4379…2e16backed Under | 51c | 2,236$1,141 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,095.78 | 779 | 51.1%398 W · 381 L | +6.5wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Under | 51c | 2,029$1,035 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$994.49 | 11,519 | 52.9%6,092 W · 5,427 L | +213.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9870…b9d3backed Over | 48c | 2,000$960 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$960 | 190 | 53.7%102 W · 88 L | +4.1wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x733d…1ae7backed Under | 55c | 1,500$822 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$678.14 | 98 | 43.9%43 W · 55 L | -5.7wins | -0.06per pick | 50cpaid | -15%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x50c3…ace1backed Over | 47c | 1,482$694 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$693.9 | 874 | 53%463 W · 411 L | +16.5wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x992b…5053backed Under | 55c | 1,145$630 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$515.45 | 227 | 53.3%121 W · 106 L | +2.1wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1d3a…7b63backed Under | 51c | 1,104$563 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$540.94 | 1,358 | 50.8%690 W · 668 L | +13.2wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9366…a9f6backed Under | 53c | 1,000$530 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$470 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.14per pick | 53cpaid | +27.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xabf5…cfebbacked Over | 48c | 999.97$480 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$479.98 | 454 | 51.3%233 W · 221 L | +2.5wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Under | 49c | 802.82$392 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$410.87 | 8,192 | 46.2%3,787 W · 4,405 L | +38.0wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x424e…263bbacked Over | 48c | 797.88$385 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$385.31 | 1,769 | 51.6%912 W · 857 L | +16.9wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x09ee…90a4backed Over | 50c | 708$350 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$350.47 | 1,569 | 51.1%801 W · 768 L | +15.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Over | 48c | 600$288 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$288 | 6,999 | 50.6%3,538 W · 3,461 L | +2.7wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe94c…1edebacked Under | 52c | 597.87$311 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$286.98 | 124 | 49.2%61 W · 63 L | -3.2wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xadfb…c2efbacked Under | 52c | 591.84$305 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$286.43 | 2,407 | 48.5%1,167 W · 1,240 L | -62.3wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x45d5…a7a0backed Over | 46c | 574$266 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$266.48 | 827 | 41.1%340 W · 487 L | -21.3wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd9ea…b781backed Under | 51c | 456.03$233 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$223.45 | 575 | 51.7%297 W · 278 L | +5.3wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0b39…57e8backed Under | 52c | 380.77$198 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$182.77 | 27 | 33.3%9 W · 18 L | -2.9wins | -0.11per pick | 44cpaid | -30.7%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd441…87febacked Over | 5c | 320$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Over | 44c | 300$132 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$132 | 8,403 | 47.9%4,022 W · 4,381 L | +76.9wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x889c…e375backed Under | 52c | 288.46$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$138.46 | 403 | 48.4%195 W · 208 L | -18.3wins | -0.05per pick | 53cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa106…5abbbacked Under | 52c | 284.67$148 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$136.64 | 197 | 52.3%103 W · 94 L | +2.2wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x84cf…2f63backed Over | 46c | 275.04$127 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$126.63 | 4,553 | 49.2%2,238 W · 2,315 L | -9.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x14e4…eabbbacked Under | 52c | 269.23$140 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$129.23 | 509 | 49.5%252 W · 257 L | +2.9wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1950…1bf4backed Under | 52c | 200.3$104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.14 | 301 | 55.1%166 W · 135 L | +11.0wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcc20…c5dbbacked Over | 43c | 195$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.85 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.43per pick | 43cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8508…c22fbacked Under | 52c | 192.31$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.31 | 1,000 | 52.4%524 W · 476 L | +5.7wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Under | 47c | 160.52$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.11 | 9,819 | 46.4%4,557 W · 5,262 L | +39.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcb0b…62cdbacked Under | 52c | 153.85$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.85 | 799 | 43.2%345 W · 454 L | -2.1wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x32ed…f960backed Over | 62c | 122$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.56 | 6,123 | 55.4%3,390 W · 2,733 L | +346.0wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x16ea…9400backed Over | 48c | 118.8$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.02 | 252 | 49.6%125 W · 127 L | -2.0wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaf58…2bf4backed Over | 50c | 104.17$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.31 | 401 | 48.1%193 W · 208 L | -4.2wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xba67…4727backed Over | 48c | 101$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.48 | 750 | 49.7%373 W · 377 L | +7.2wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5b62…d87fbacked Over | 48c | 100$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48 | 1,845 | 50.7%936 W · 909 L | -4.4wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd155…8250backed Over | 48c | 98.93$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.49 | 509 | 54%275 W · 234 L | +15.0wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5fac…6b48backed Under | 52c | 96.15$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.15 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.10per pick | 50cpaid | +18.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb0f4…6fa9backed Under | 46c | 94$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.76 | 1,777 | 58.4%1,037 W · 740 L | +91.8wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa2e0…d084backed Over | 54c | 92.59$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 203 | 50.2%102 W · 101 L | -5.0wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4dea…5e23backed Under | 52c | 83$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.84 | 425 | 50.1%213 W · 212 L | +8.3wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6c97…82adbacked Under | 52c | 73.08$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.08 | 68 | 42.6%29 W · 39 L | -6.0wins | -0.09per pick | 52cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked Under | 57c | 66.94$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.99 | 5,812 | 43.7%2,541 W · 3,271 L | -188.1wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -19%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x99d7…6435backed Over | 68c | 55.88$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38 | 172 | 52.9%91 W · 81 L | +9.2wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd5f5…bb11backed Over | 49c | 50$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.5 | 559 | 53.1%297 W · 262 L | +10.5wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xee84…becbbacked Under | 52c | 48.08$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.08 | 218 | 52.8%115 W · 103 L | +9.9wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1a59…a57ebacked Under | 66c | 41.56$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.32 | 677 | 42.2%286 W · 391 L | -36.7wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -18%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x89ab…89acbacked Over | 49c | 40.82$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 78 | 56.4%44 W · 34 L | +2.5wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe743…ce0fbacked Over | 49c | 40.8$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.99 | 69 | 40.6%28 W · 41 L | -5.3wins | -0.08per pick | 48cpaid | -15%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3a4c…ad2fbacked Under | 51c | 37.04$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.15 | 26 | 42.3%11 W · 15 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x70fc…ab12backed Under | 36c | 33.33$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.41 | 1,374 | 54.2%745 W · 629 L | +16.1wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa1b4…1fc5backed Over | 48c | 31.72$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.23 | 25 | 36%9 W · 16 L | -3.0wins | -0.12per pick | 48cpaid | -26.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf9ef…20ebbacked Under | 50c | 30$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 373 | 57.4%214 W · 159 L | +3.1wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1e3b…e232backed Over | 46c | 29.99$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.94 | 2,947 | 51.9%1,529 W · 1,418 L | -34.0wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9a0c…14cebacked Over | 49c | 29.63$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.52 | 145 | 55.9%81 W · 64 L | +7.1wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4259…77c1backed Over | 64c | 25.63$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.4 | 2,243 | 57.6%1,293 W · 950 L | +37.1wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x341b…b92cbacked Under | 52c | 23.94$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.49 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | -0.6wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f5…937fbacked Under | 60c | 23.84$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.51 | 2,546 | 45.9%1,168 W · 1,378 L | -74.1wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -15%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc37e…9e64backed Over | 49c | 21.86$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.71 | 295 | 53.2%157 W · 138 L | +7.9wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x78d7…291dbacked Over | 73c | 20$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.6 | 26 | 42.3%11 W · 15 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5ef0…d45bbacked Under | 51c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.8 | 65 | 49.2%32 W · 33 L | -2.0wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2528…b77dbacked Over | 71c | 15$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.65 | 1,630 | 55.2%899 W · 731 L | +2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 14 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Philadelphia Phillies vs. Pittsburgh Pirates: O/U 8.5this page
- Philadelphia Phillies vs. Pittsburgh PiratesPhiladelphia Phillies won
- Philadelphia Phillies vs. Pittsburgh Pirates: O/U 10.5Under won
- Philadelphia Phillies vs. Pittsburgh Pirates: O/U 11.5Under won
- Philadelphia Phillies vs. Pittsburgh Pirates: O/U 5.5Over won
- Philadelphia Phillies vs. Pittsburgh Pirates: O/U 6.5Under won
- Philadelphia Phillies vs. Pittsburgh Pirates: O/U 7.5Under won
- Philadelphia Phillies vs. Pittsburgh Pirates: O/U 9.5Under won
- Spread: Philadelphia Phillies (-1.5)Philadelphia Phillies won
- Spread: Philadelphia Phillies (-2.5)Philadelphia Phillies won
- Spread: Philadelphia Phillies (-3.5)Philadelphia Phillies won
- Spread: Philadelphia Phillies (-4.5)Philadelphia Phillies won
- Spread: Pittsburgh Pirates (-1.5)Philadelphia Phillies won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Philadelphia Phillies vs. Pittsburgh PiratesYes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.