MLB · resolved market
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Pittsburgh Pirates: O/U 9.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x50dcad9bc9ae6cc9904e510c9a7ad5242caf42b714a1f9b83f0387fe7d49bae6
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $4,082
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $3,967
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $4,082 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 20 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xac65…cfe6backed Under | 65c | 1,400$910 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$490.08 | 137 | 59.1%81 W · 56 L | +2.8wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Under | 56c | 817.95$459 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$359 | 8,086 | 46.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L | +29.9wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Over | 48c | 672.26$320 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$319.86 | 9,728 | 46.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L | +32.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xadfb…c2efbacked Over | 35c | 564.7$198 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$197.71 | 2,407 | 48.5%1,167 W · 1,240 L | -62.3wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x004e…c650backed Over | 52c | 460.52$239 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$239.47 | 60 | 48.3%29 W · 31 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x45d5…a7a0backed Over | 35c | 395.08$138 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$138.28 | 827 | 41.1%340 W · 487 L | -21.3wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe062…4907backed Over | 37c | 220$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.4 | 134 | 52.2%70 W · 64 L | +1.7wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5c18…2f76backed Under | 27c | 205$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$149.65 | 570 | 46.8%267 W · 303 L | +14.0wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0373…6d6bbacked Over | 37c | 200$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74 | 44 | 50%22 W · 22 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2728…4f96backed Over | 53c | 188.68$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 534 | 48.9%261 W · 273 L | -1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed Over | 36c | 161$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.51 | 8,470 | 52.6%4,459 W · 4,011 L | +510.0wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf898…e720backed Over | 51c | 78.71$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.35 | 6,303 | 48.2%3,041 W · 3,262 L | +181.4wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Under | 47c | 74.68$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.58 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Over | 33c | 70.22$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.86 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Under | 44c | 49.43$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.68 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x70fc…ab12backed Under | 50c | 40$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 1,367 | 54.3%742 W · 625 L | +16.5wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc869…bc8dbacked Over | 57c | 26.32$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 39 | 53.8%21 W · 18 L | -1.9wins | -0.05per pick | 59cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc0c2…b14dbacked Over | 51c | 21.77$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.19 | 1,149 | 48.9%562 W · 587 L | -6.5wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xac7a…414fbacked Under | 66c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.8 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.34per pick | 67cpaid | -49.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Under | 62c | 16.54$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.28 | 5,401 | 50.5%2,726 W · 2,675 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 14 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Philadelphia Phillies vs. Pittsburgh Pirates: O/U 9.5this page
- Philadelphia Phillies vs. Pittsburgh PiratesPhiladelphia Phillies won
- Philadelphia Phillies vs. Pittsburgh Pirates: O/U 10.5Under won
- Philadelphia Phillies vs. Pittsburgh Pirates: O/U 11.5Under won
- Philadelphia Phillies vs. Pittsburgh Pirates: O/U 5.5Over won
- Philadelphia Phillies vs. Pittsburgh Pirates: O/U 6.5Under won
- Philadelphia Phillies vs. Pittsburgh Pirates: O/U 7.5Under won
- Philadelphia Phillies vs. Pittsburgh Pirates: O/U 8.5Under won
- Spread: Philadelphia Phillies (-1.5)Philadelphia Phillies won
- Spread: Philadelphia Phillies (-2.5)Philadelphia Phillies won
- Spread: Philadelphia Phillies (-3.5)Philadelphia Phillies won
- Spread: Philadelphia Phillies (-4.5)Philadelphia Phillies won
- Spread: Pittsburgh Pirates (-1.5)Philadelphia Phillies won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Philadelphia Phillies vs. Pittsburgh PiratesYes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.