Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 23°C on May 25?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x8e54a9883f4fd956ed1fbef3da5b214f64c0b7de94f74efa25d3192fe1e41b58
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $13,892
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $13,838
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $13,892 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 87 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5d4e…14cfbacked No | 2c | 4,000$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84 | 138 | 9.4%13 W · 125 L | +10.4wins | +0.08per pick | 2cpaid | +357.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 27c | 395.09$106 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$288.89 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xeb01…43bbbacked Yes | 32c | 287.12$92 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$195.5 | 739 | 27.3%202 W · 537 L | +10.3wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 24c | 265.06$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$201.76 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2ff2…01b9backed Yes | 30c | 244.67$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$171.53 | 869 | 52.7%458 W · 411 L | -3.9wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaa28…090bbacked Yes | 5c | 243.54$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$230.9 | 2,239 | 15%335 W · 1,904 L | +54.6wins | +0.02per pick | 13cpaid | +24%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x875e…e6b5backed Yes | 73c | 240$176 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.7 | 81 | 76.5%62 W · 19 L | +14.7wins | +0.18per pick | 58cpaid | +39%equal weight | 65+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x5b11…2976backed Yes | 46c | 217.25$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$117.25 | 499 | 41.7%208 W · 291 L | -2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfe1d…ba4abacked Yes | 59c | 180$107 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.26 | 8 | 100%8 W · 0 L | +3.7wins | +0.46per pick | 54cpaid | +104.8%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xc643…e631backed Yes | 69c | 180$124 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.48 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.46per pick | 54cpaid | +101.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x45b7…fc3bbacked Yes | 66c | 180$118 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.62 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.2wins | +0.40per pick | 60cpaid | +80.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf29c…9559backed Yes | 49c | 180$89 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90.98 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +2.1wins | +0.52per pick | 48cpaid | +115.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xdcb9…1879backed Yes | 66c | 180$119 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.44 | 43 | 93%40 W · 3 L | +14.6wins | +0.34per pick | 59cpaid | +59.4%equal weight | 74+0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xe3d1…d203backed Yes | 66c | 180$118 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.5 | 19 | 84.2%16 W · 3 L | +5.4wins | +0.28per pick | 56cpaid | +50.5%equal weight | 64+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xebed…7d9cbacked Yes | 34c | 155$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$101.95 | 134 | 30.6%41 W · 93 L | +4.8wins | +0.04per pick | 27cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5f88…da69backed No | 69c | 144.69$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 179 | 49.2%88 W · 91 L | -3.5wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2ffd…e7c6backed Yes | 15c | 133.32$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$113.32 | 516 | 31.6%163 W · 353 L | -29.4wins | -0.06per pick | 37cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x08ce…f301backed Yes | 77c | 125.93$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.69 | 353 | 23.2%82 W · 271 L | -16.4wins | -0.05per pick | 28cpaid | -54.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1afc…fb8dbacked Yes | 50c | 120$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.12 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.9wins | +0.47per pick | 53cpaid | +94.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x07d6…64fbbacked No | 66c | 108.17$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.87 | 210 | 68.6%144 W · 66 L | +12.1wins | +0.06per pick | 63cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked Yes | 31c | 107.97$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.04 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4bcc…b908backed Yes | 32c | 103.49$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.64 | 55 | 49.1%27 W · 28 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7dfe…aef2backed Yes | 31c | 98.12$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.12 | 102 | 28.4%29 W · 73 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f4…1e34backed Yes | 37c | 95.18$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.04 | 1,312 | 45%590 W · 722 L | +33.6wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 34c | 91$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.03 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x86d3…da78backed No | 62c | 89.65$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.79 | 265 | 33.2%88 W · 177 L | +13.9wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe54c…2c69backed Yes | 32c | 87.54$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.15 | 255 | 60.8%155 W · 100 L | +16.2wins | +0.06per pick | 54cpaid | +14%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked No | 59c | 84$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.94 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 36c | 82.07$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.93 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xc118…18e2backed Yes | 23c | 79$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.07 | 153 | 46.4%71 W · 82 L | +26.2wins | +0.17per pick | 29cpaid | +112.3%equal weight | 66+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked Yes | 24c | 77.94$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.94 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa98a…a5a8backed No | 71c | 74.88$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53 | 2,015 | 67.7%1,365 W · 650 L | +1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 68cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xae68…064abacked No | 67c | 74.12$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.58 | 2,555 | 63.8%1,631 W · 924 L | +38.4wins | +0.02per pick | 62cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8d70…cc5ebacked No | 75c | 73.91$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.4 | 156 | 66%103 W · 53 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x11a4…f434backed No | 73c | 69$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.12 | 475 | 69.5%330 W · 145 L | +6.2wins | +0.01per pick | 68cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5964…35dfbacked No | 38c | 60$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 1,279 | 33.6%430 W · 849 L | -6.3wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb501…9a53backed Yes | 35c | 58$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.57 | 175 | 36%63 W · 112 L | +4.3wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdba1…8239backed No | 69c | 55.12$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.17 | 128 | 53.9%69 W · 59 L | +10.0wins | +0.08per pick | 46cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf114…6eccbacked Yes | 29c | 53.03$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.55 | 1,090 | 74.2%809 W · 281 L | +179.3wins | +0.16per pick | 58cpaid | +34.1%equal weight | 68+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 36c | 52.38$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.52 | 3,366 | 31.1%1,047 W · 2,319 L | -34.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x938d…8674backed Yes | 40c | 52$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.2 | 467 | 33.4%156 W · 311 L | +21.4wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | +12%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8971…809dbacked Yes | 35c | 51.22$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.15 | 1,959 | 46%901 W · 1,058 L | -51.3wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe422…4d64backed No | 41c | 50$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.5 | 2,065 | 43.6%900 W · 1,165 L | -11.3wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x01a6…59b0backed No | 69c | 48.49$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.45 | 1,679 | 61.7%1,036 W · 643 L | +6.3wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf7c2…d53dbacked No | 60c | 48.11$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.99 | 137 | 55.5%76 W · 61 L | -6.4wins | -0.05per pick | 60cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe9b1…79d7backed No | 74c | 45.02$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.22 | 889 | 73.2%651 W · 238 L | +20.3wins | +0.02per pick | 71cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x67f4…df0fbacked No | 78c | 44.94$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 102 | 65.7%67 W · 35 L | -6.0wins | -0.06per pick | 72cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x18ae…314cbacked No | 68c | 43.78$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.98 | 1,211 | 29.8%361 W · 850 L | -7.6wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaf3c…ddd0backed No | 70c | 42.85$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 466 | 67.6%315 W · 151 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 67cpaid | +334.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x01eb…b04abacked Yes | 38c | 41.89$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.89 | 93 | 41.9%39 W · 54 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb07e…e682backed No | 71c | 41$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.2 | 258 | 68.2%176 W · 82 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 68cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb9d5…9f2abacked Yes | 38c | 37.59$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.32 | 86 | 50%43 W · 43 L | +1.7wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xde9c…e014backed Yes | 31c | 36$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.68 | 258 | 39.9%103 W · 155 L | +6.2wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3d1d…9e61backed No | 77c | 35.35$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.29 | 2,870 | 64.8%1,860 W · 1,010 L | -32.8wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdaeb…0d2fbacked Yes | 31c | 35$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.05 | 528 | 28%148 W · 380 L | -57.1wins | -0.11per pick | 39cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 63c | 33.4$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.03 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3690…e16fbacked No | 52c | 33$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.02 | 767 | 55.4%425 W · 342 L | +40.7wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1798…1ce9backed No | 65c | 30.78$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2,428 | 44.9%1,091 W · 1,337 L | -31.5wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1abc…45e7backed No | 64c | 30.69$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.79 | 2,099 | 58.3%1,224 W · 875 L | +83.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcc11…dadbbacked No | 66c | 30.5$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 157 | 49%77 W · 80 L | +2.2wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9848…f408backed Yes | 39c | 30.2$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.3 | 31 | 32.3%10 W · 21 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 34cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 63c | 30$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.9 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0b6b…280bbacked No | 64c | 30$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.25 | 42 | 64.3%27 W · 15 L | -1.7wins | -0.04per pick | 68cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 66c | 29.99$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.8 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2349…1646backed No | 76c | 29.99$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.83 | 482 | 61.8%298 W · 184 L | +43.5wins | +0.09per pick | 53cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x9711…5d8bbacked No | 67c | 29.78$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -2.6wins | -0.44per pick | 61cpaid | -77.7%equal weight | 41-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x558b…f41bbacked No | 72c | 29$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.84 | 286 | 60.8%174 W · 112 L | -15.8wins | -0.06per pick | 66cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfaf3…782cbacked No | 64c | 27.99$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.81 | 1,876 | 63%1,181 W · 695 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 63cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8961…ab1abacked No | 70c | 25.93$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.25 | 254 | 66.9%170 W · 84 L | -7.6wins | -0.03per pick | 70cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7299…a763backed No | 72c | 25.39$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.25 | 236 | 68.2%161 W · 75 L | -7.3wins | -0.03per pick | 71cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaa84…e985backed No | 62c | 25$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.5 | 407 | 39.3%160 W · 247 L | -11.2wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8bbc…1d9ebacked No | 76c | 24$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.24 | 115 | 69.6%80 W · 35 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 69cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb9fd…5c4fbacked No | 62c | 23.79$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.85 | 147 | 45.6%67 W · 80 L | -11.2wins | -0.08per pick | 53cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0a0c…a853backed No | 67c | 23.39$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.67 | 2,249 | 34.2%769 W · 1,480 L | +11.6wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed No | 61c | 22.83$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.93 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6659…b7cabacked No | 70c | 21.8$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.26 | 938 | 37.6%353 W · 585 L | -14.5wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7903…57f6backed No | 77c | 21$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.09 | 277 | 69%191 W · 86 L | +3.7wins | +0.01per pick | 68cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfddf…1686backed No | 71c | 21$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.98 | 641 | 67.6%433 W · 208 L | +14.1wins | +0.02per pick | 65cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6837…1108backed No | 54c | 21$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.29 | 27 | 59.3%16 W · 11 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | +44.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb1bc…e269backed Yes | 51c | 20.3$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +15.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb78d…c431backed No | 71c | 20.02$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.26 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -2.8wins | -0.47per pick | 63cpaid | -76.1%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xf1ab…5cf7backed No | 60c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 208 | 52.4%109 W · 99 L | -10.4wins | -0.05per pick | 57cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked No | 68c | 19.66$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.31 | 3,474 | 33.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L | -175.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9b72…a958backed No | 67c | 17.76$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.84 | 686 | 45.8%314 W · 372 L | -10.7wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8c93…8967backed No | 67c | 16.79$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.25 | 444 | 48.6%216 W · 228 L | -3.8wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x13e0…82f9backed No | 69c | 15.07$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.45 | 305 | 65.9%201 W · 104 L | +1.8wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd1a6…1507backed No | 78c | 13.83$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.78 | 2,626 | 54%1,418 W · 1,208 L | -56.4wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 23°C on May 25?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 19°C on May 25?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 20°C on May 25?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 21°C on May 25?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 22°C on May 25?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 24°C on May 25?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 25°C on May 25?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.