TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Weather · resolved market

Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 23°C on May 25?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$13,892
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$13,838

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $13,892 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 87 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Weather
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x5d4e…14cfbacked No2c4,000$84 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$841389.4%13 W · 125 L+10.4wins+0.08per pick2cpaid+357.8%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xb06a…52f5backed Yes27c395.09$106 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$288.895,83236.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L+211.1wins+0.04per pick33cpaid-24.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xeb01…43bbbacked Yes32c287.12$92 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$195.573927.3%202 W · 537 L+10.3wins+0.01per pick26cpaid-6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5f21…b376backed Yes24c265.06$63 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$201.7617,35519.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L+396.7wins+0.02per pick18cpaid+15.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x2ff2…01b9backed Yes30c244.67$73 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$171.5386952.7%458 W · 411 L-3.9wins0.00per pick53cpaid-5.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xaa28…090bbacked Yes5c243.54$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$230.92,23915%335 W · 1,904 L+54.6wins+0.02per pick13cpaid+24%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x875e…e6b5backed Yes73c240$176 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$63.78176.5%62 W · 19 L+14.7wins+0.18per pick58cpaid+39%equal weight65+0.14 edge/pick
0x5b11…2976backed Yes46c217.25$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$117.2549941.7%208 W · 291 L-2.2wins0.00per pick42cpaid+0.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfe1d…ba4abacked Yes59c180$107 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$73.268100%8 W · 0 L+3.7wins+0.46per pick54cpaid+104.8%equal weight62+0.11 edge/pick
0xc643…e631backed Yes69c180$124 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$56.482100%2 W · 0 L+0.9wins+0.46per pick54cpaid+101.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x45b7…fc3bbacked Yes66c180$118 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$61.623100%3 W · 0 L+1.2wins+0.40per pick60cpaid+80.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xf29c…9559backed Yes49c180$89 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$90.984100%4 W · 0 L+2.1wins+0.52per pick48cpaid+115.3%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xdcb9…1879backed Yes66c180$119 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$61.444393%40 W · 3 L+14.6wins+0.34per pick59cpaid+59.4%equal weight74+0.21 edge/pick
0xe3d1…d203backed Yes66c180$118 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$61.51984.2%16 W · 3 L+5.4wins+0.28per pick56cpaid+50.5%equal weight64+0.12 edge/pick
0xebed…7d9cbacked Yes34c155$53 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$101.9513430.6%41 W · 93 L+4.8wins+0.04per pick27cpaid+1.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5f88…da69backed No69c144.69$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10017949.2%88 W · 91 L-3.5wins-0.02per pick51cpaid-10.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2ffd…e7c6backed Yes15c133.32$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$113.3251631.6%163 W · 353 L-29.4wins-0.06per pick37cpaid-18.5%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x08ce…f301backed Yes77c125.93$97 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28.6935323.2%82 W · 271 L-16.4wins-0.05per pick28cpaid-54.7%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x1afc…fb8dbacked Yes50c120$60 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$60.124100%4 W · 0 L+1.9wins+0.47per pick53cpaid+94.5%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x07d6…64fbbacked No66c108.17$71 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$70.8721068.6%144 W · 66 L+12.1wins+0.06per pick63cpaid+3.7%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x496f…fa5dbacked Yes31c107.97$34 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$74.044,51452.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L+47.8wins+0.01per pick52cpaid+2.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4bcc…b908backed Yes32c103.49$33 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$70.645549.1%27 W · 28 L+0.8wins+0.02per pick48cpaid-12.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7dfe…aef2backed Yes31c98.12$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$68.1210228.4%29 W · 73 L-1.1wins-0.01per pick29cpaid-12.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf7f4…1e34backed Yes37c95.18$35 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$60.041,31245%590 W · 722 L+33.6wins+0.03per pick42cpaid+2.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes34c91$31 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$60.033,93935.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L+35.4wins+0.01per pick34cpaid+0.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x86d3…da78backed No62c89.65$56 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$55.7926533.2%88 W · 177 L+13.9wins+0.05per pick28cpaid+0.4%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xe54c…2c69backed Yes32c87.54$28 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$59.1525560.8%155 W · 100 L+16.2wins+0.06per pick54cpaid+14%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xc7d0…1f8abacked No59c84$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.944,34729.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L+19.8wins0.00per pick29cpaid-8.6%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes36c82.07$29 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$52.9312,49819.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L-2,667.3wins-0.21per pick41cpaid-66.8%equal weight26-0.21 edge/pick
0xc118…18e2backed Yes23c79$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$61.0715346.4%71 W · 82 L+26.2wins+0.17per pick29cpaid+112.3%equal weight66+0.15 edge/pick
0xc34f…7d2ebacked Yes24c77.94$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$58.9412,17346.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L-42.2wins0.00per pick47cpaid-13.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa98a…a5a8backed No71c74.88$53 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$532,01567.7%1,365 W · 650 L+1.8wins0.00per pick68cpaid+3.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xae68…064abacked No67c74.12$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.582,55563.8%1,631 W · 924 L+38.4wins+0.02per pick62cpaid+8.7%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x8d70…cc5ebacked No75c73.91$55 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$55.415666%103 W · 53 L+1.3wins+0.01per pick65cpaid-2.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x11a4…f434backed No73c69$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50.1247569.5%330 W · 145 L+6.2wins+0.01per pick68cpaid+2.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5964…35dfbacked No38c60$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$231,27933.6%430 W · 849 L-6.3wins0.00per pick34cpaid-7.2%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xb501…9a53backed Yes35c58$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$37.5717536%63 W · 112 L+4.3wins+0.02per pick34cpaid+8.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xdba1…8239backed No69c55.12$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.1712853.9%69 W · 59 L+10.0wins+0.08per pick46cpaid+2.9%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0xf114…6eccbacked Yes29c53.03$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$37.551,09074.2%809 W · 281 L+179.3wins+0.16per pick58cpaid+34.1%equal weight68+0.16 edge/pick
0xe907…cff6backed Yes36c52.38$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$33.523,36631.1%1,047 W · 2,319 L-34.1wins-0.01per pick32cpaid-29.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x938d…8674backed Yes40c52$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$31.246733.4%156 W · 311 L+21.4wins+0.05per pick29cpaid+12%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x8971…809dbacked Yes35c51.22$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$33.151,95946%901 W · 1,058 L-51.3wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-9.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe422…4d64backed No41c50$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.52,06543.6%900 W · 1,165 L-11.3wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-1.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x01a6…59b0backed No69c48.49$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.451,67961.7%1,036 W · 643 L+6.3wins0.00per pick61cpaid-0.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf7c2…d53dbacked No60c48.11$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.9913755.5%76 W · 61 L-6.4wins-0.05per pick60cpaid-9.7%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xe9b1…79d7backed No74c45.02$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.2288973.2%651 W · 238 L+20.3wins+0.02per pick71cpaid+1.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x67f4…df0fbacked No78c44.94$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3510265.7%67 W · 35 L-6.0wins-0.06per pick72cpaid-8.2%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x18ae…314cbacked No68c43.78$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.981,21129.8%361 W · 850 L-7.6wins-0.01per pick30cpaid-12.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xaf3c…ddd0backed No70c42.85$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3046667.6%315 W · 151 L+0.8wins0.00per pick67cpaid+334.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x01eb…b04abacked Yes38c41.89$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25.899341.9%39 W · 54 L+1.1wins+0.01per pick41cpaid-0.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb07e…e682backed No71c41$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.225868.2%176 W · 82 L+0.2wins0.00per pick68cpaid0%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb9d5…9f2abacked Yes38c37.59$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23.328650%43 W · 43 L+1.7wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+6.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xde9c…e014backed Yes31c36$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24.6825839.9%103 W · 155 L+6.2wins+0.02per pick38cpaid-1.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3d1d…9e61backed No77c35.35$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.292,87064.8%1,860 W · 1,010 L-32.8wins-0.01per pick66cpaid-3.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdaeb…0d2fbacked Yes31c35$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24.0552828%148 W · 380 L-57.1wins-0.11per pick39cpaid-30.6%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0xfbd8…4027backed No63c33.4$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.035,63159.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L-111.1wins-0.02per pick62cpaid-7.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3690…e16fbacked No52c33$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.0276755.4%425 W · 342 L+40.7wins+0.05per pick50cpaid-2.5%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x1798…1ce9backed No65c30.78$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$202,42844.9%1,091 W · 1,337 L-31.5wins-0.01per pick46cpaid+2.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1abc…45e7backed No64c30.69$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.792,09958.3%1,224 W · 875 L+83.2wins+0.04per pick54cpaid+0.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xcc11…dadbbacked No66c30.5$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2015749%77 W · 80 L+2.2wins+0.01per pick48cpaid+5.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9848…f408backed Yes39c30.2$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.33132.3%10 W · 21 L-0.5wins-0.02per pick34cpaid+4.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfd55…f905backed No63c30$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.94,54758.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L-107.5wins-0.02per pick61cpaid-8%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x0b6b…280bbacked No64c30$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.254264.3%27 W · 15 L-1.7wins-0.04per pick68cpaid-5.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xeb54…d452backed No66c29.99$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.84,52565.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L-134.0wins-0.03per pick69cpaid-4.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2349…1646backed No76c29.99$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.8348261.8%298 W · 184 L+43.5wins+0.09per pick53cpaid+12.1%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x9711…5d8bbacked No67c29.78$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20616.7%1 W · 5 L-2.6wins-0.44per pick61cpaid-77.7%equal weight41-0.09 edge/pick
0x558b…f41bbacked No72c29$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.8428660.8%174 W · 112 L-15.8wins-0.06per pick66cpaid-8.7%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xfaf3…782cbacked No64c27.99$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.811,87663%1,181 W · 695 L+0.3wins0.00per pick63cpaid0%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8961…ab1abacked No70c25.93$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.2525466.9%170 W · 84 L-7.6wins-0.03per pick70cpaid-4.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x7299…a763backed No72c25.39$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.2523668.2%161 W · 75 L-7.3wins-0.03per pick71cpaid-4.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xaa84…e985backed No62c25$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.540739.3%160 W · 247 L-11.2wins-0.03per pick42cpaid-7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x8bbc…1d9ebacked No76c24$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.2411569.6%80 W · 35 L+0.1wins0.00per pick69cpaid+8.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb9fd…5c4fbacked No62c23.79$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.8514745.6%67 W · 80 L-11.2wins-0.08per pick53cpaid-14.6%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0x0a0c…a853backed No67c23.39$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.672,24934.2%769 W · 1,480 L+11.6wins+0.01per pick34cpaid+5.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8fbd…a959backed No61c22.83$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.938,95226.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L+120.3wins+0.01per pick25cpaid-2.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6659…b7cabacked No70c21.8$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.2693837.6%353 W · 585 L-14.5wins-0.02per pick39cpaid-3.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7903…57f6backed No77c21$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.0927769%191 W · 86 L+3.7wins+0.01per pick68cpaid+1.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xfddf…1686backed No71c21$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.9864167.6%433 W · 208 L+14.1wins+0.02per pick65cpaid+3.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6837…1108backed No54c21$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.292759.3%16 W · 11 L+0.7wins+0.02per pick57cpaid+44.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb1bc…e269backed Yes51c20.3$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$101442.9%6 W · 8 L-0.3wins-0.02per pick45cpaid+15.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb78d…c431backed No71c20.02$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.26616.7%1 W · 5 L-2.8wins-0.47per pick63cpaid-76.1%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0xf1ab…5cf7backed No60c20$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1220852.4%109 W · 99 L-10.4wins-0.05per pick57cpaid-5.6%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x510f…a43cbacked No68c19.66$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.313,47433.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L-175.6wins-0.05per pick39cpaid-28.4%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x9b72…a958backed No67c17.76$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.8468645.8%314 W · 372 L-10.7wins-0.02per pick47cpaid-10.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8c93…8967backed No67c16.79$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.2544448.6%216 W · 228 L-3.8wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-1.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x13e0…82f9backed No69c15.07$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.4530565.9%201 W · 104 L+1.8wins+0.01per pick65cpaid+0.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd1a6…1507backed No78c13.83$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.782,62654%1,418 W · 1,208 L-56.4wins-0.02per pick56cpaid-19.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.