Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 22°C on May 25?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xcb192445f0340c750586da4efc316aeb677eb7a776a89c714eb974563a4e3ef8
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $18,355
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $20,910
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $18,355 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 78 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5d4e…14cfbacked Yes | 2c | 4,000$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84 | 138 | 9.4%13 W · 125 L | +10.4wins | +0.08per pick | 2cpaid | +357.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 61c | 392.01$241 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$240.85 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x08ce…f301backed No | 26c | 387.42$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$287.52 | 353 | 23.2%82 W · 271 L | -16.4wins | -0.05per pick | 28cpaid | -54.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 19c | 362.53$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.6 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5ddb…3fa9backed No | 7c | 305.02$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$284.1 | 313 | 19.2%60 W · 253 L | +4.9wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2612…5289backed No | 54c | 267.67$145 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$122.67 | 3,048 | 40.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L | -121.5wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xeb01…43bbbacked Yes | 20c | 233.95$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.43 | 739 | 27.3%202 W · 537 L | +10.3wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xce07…5c3cbacked Yes | 53c | 231.19$122 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$122.49 | 310 | 62.6%194 W · 116 L | +38.4wins | +0.12per pick | 50cpaid | +33.3%equal weight | 63+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x0514…f8c6backed No | 41c | 205$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$120.77 | 26 | 50%13 W · 13 L | +3.4wins | +0.13per pick | 37cpaid | +36.4%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xfb85…f401backed Yes | 25c | 195.49$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.15 | 311 | 24.1%75 W · 236 L | -8.2wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3690…e16fbacked No | 26c | 191.59$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$142.07 | 767 | 55.4%425 W · 342 L | +40.7wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 39c | 167.35$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102.49 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x204b…75f3backed Yes | 65c | 144.92$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.72 | 221 | 71%157 W · 64 L | +14.5wins | +0.07per pick | 65cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb3…1367backed No | 50c | 137.69$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.58 | 1,554 | 33.1%515 W · 1,039 L | -66.6wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7dcf…a7bdbacked No | 18c | 131.93$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108.15 | 1,586 | 61.9%982 W · 604 L | +20.2wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc6f5…870bbacked No | 75c | 129.88$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.35 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -36%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 78c | 118.47$92 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.48 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3822…a5a1backed Yes | 56c | 116.08$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.14 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +19.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked No | 55c | 115.18$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.08 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2451…09fabacked Yes | 23c | 113.89$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 221 | 25.3%56 W · 165 L | -3.7wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8842…dfa7backed Yes | 27c | 107.69$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.06 | 452 | 36.5%165 W · 287 L | +20.0wins | +0.04per pick | 32cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4bcc…b908backed Yes | 17c | 103.75$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.5 | 55 | 49.1%27 W · 28 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f4…1e34backed Yes | 29c | 102.44$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.71 | 1,312 | 45%590 W · 722 L | +33.6wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x18ae…314cbacked Yes | 17c | 90.27$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1,211 | 29.8%361 W · 850 L | -7.6wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xebed…7d9cbacked Yes | 42c | 90$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.5 | 134 | 30.6%41 W · 93 L | +4.8wins | +0.04per pick | 27cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0a0c…a853backed Yes | 17c | 85.98$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2,249 | 34.2%769 W · 1,480 L | +11.6wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc80f…6147backed Yes | 18c | 84.73$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.13 | 525 | 33.7%177 W · 348 L | +22.8wins | +0.04per pick | 29cpaid | +32%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0f37…1410backed Yes | 40c | 82.9$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.16 | 849 | 30.6%260 W · 589 L | +29.7wins | +0.03per pick | 27cpaid | +28%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3c11…33c9backed Yes | 76c | 80$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.87 | 896 | 61.7%553 W · 343 L | +15.2wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2ffd…e7c6backed Yes | 27c | 74.05$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.99 | 516 | 31.6%163 W · 353 L | -29.4wins | -0.06per pick | 37cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0d1d…f7e6backed Yes | 21c | 72.09$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | +0.9wins | +0.08per pick | 19cpaid | +37.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf384…75a5backed No | 75c | 68.66$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.94 | 8 | 87.5%7 W · 1 L | +1.2wins | +0.14per pick | 73cpaid | +17.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x86d3…da78backed Yes | 20c | 67.39$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.52 | 265 | 33.2%88 W · 177 L | +13.9wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe5b1…30b2backed No | 77c | 64$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.72 | 503 | 73.2%368 W · 135 L | +25.3wins | +0.05per pick | 68cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked Yes | 53c | 63.24$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.53 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5964…35dfbacked No | 38c | 59.98$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.99 | 1,279 | 33.6%430 W · 849 L | -6.3wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x70f2…5b0cbacked No | 30c | 57.36$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.35 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.70per pick | 30cpaid | +237.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x51ee…2912backed No | 38c | 57.13$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.56 | 39 | 48.7%19 W · 20 L | -1.6wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -23.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb501…9a53backed Yes | 20c | 57$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.35 | 175 | 36%63 W · 112 L | +4.3wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc362…14a8backed Yes | 22c | 55$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.1 | 32 | 75%24 W · 8 L | +4.2wins | +0.13per pick | 62cpaid | +14%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9d3e…2c6bbacked Yes | 32c | 54.7$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.75 | 188 | 14.4%27 W · 161 L | -14.7wins | -0.08per pick | 22cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd24b…187dbacked Yes | 55c | 54.65$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 613 | 65.3%400 W · 213 L | +43.8wins | +0.07per pick | 58cpaid | +15.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb1bc…e269backed Yes | 50c | 51.55$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +15.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe422…4d64backed No | 41c | 50$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.5 | 2,065 | 43.6%900 W · 1,165 L | -11.3wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x347b…c9bcbacked No | 78c | 48.62$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.7 | 201 | 73.1%147 W · 54 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 74cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe9b1…79d7backed No | 77c | 47.28$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.78 | 889 | 73.2%651 W · 238 L | +20.3wins | +0.02per pick | 71cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x865d…47aabacked Yes | 27c | 46.7$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.61 | 164 | 32.9%54 W · 110 L | +12.7wins | +0.08per pick | 25cpaid | +47.1%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4676…b720backed Yes | 69c | 41.55$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.87 | 981 | 60.6%594 W · 387 L | +9.2wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 73c | 41.09$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.06 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x86c2…8010backed No | 41c | 40$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.6 | 1,271 | 47.6%605 W · 666 L | -25.1wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x09c2…8210backed Yes | 50c | 39.7$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.98 | 541 | 54%292 W · 249 L | +13.3wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x94b1…27cbbacked No | 78c | 38.48$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.49 | 975 | 70.6%688 W · 287 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3164…3c65backed No | 79c | 36.11$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.54 | 444 | 65.3%290 W · 154 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 63c | 36$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.5 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb9d5…9f2abacked Yes | 44c | 34.12$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 86 | 50%43 W · 43 L | +1.7wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x35c4…d144backed Yes | 49c | 33.67$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.38 | 1,255 | 62.5%785 W · 470 L | +99.5wins | +0.08per pick | 55cpaid | +16.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 63c | 33.4$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.52 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2754…1668backed No | 53c | 31.16$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.64 | 1,018 | 60.2%613 W · 405 L | +13.5wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1a2b…bf2abacked Yes | 36c | 31$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.16 | 62 | 64.5%40 W · 22 L | +5.0wins | +0.08per pick | 56cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x69f0…fb27backed No | 70c | 30.62$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.17 | 2,118 | 58.2%1,233 W · 885 L | +78.8wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0b6b…280bbacked No | 73c | 30$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.18 | 42 | 64.3%27 W · 15 L | -1.7wins | -0.04per pick | 68cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2349…1646backed No | 69c | 30$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.18 | 482 | 61.8%298 W · 184 L | +43.5wins | +0.09per pick | 53cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x3d1d…9e61backed No | 35c | 29.44$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.25 | 2,870 | 64.8%1,860 W · 1,010 L | -32.8wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 71c | 28$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.12 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf1be…fa77backed No | 68c | 27.36$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.71 | 11 | 72.7%8 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 75cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x42b7…abffbacked Yes | 69c | 26.41$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.27 | 306 | 65%199 W · 107 L | +14.5wins | +0.05per pick | 60cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1798…1ce9backed No | 76c | 26.31$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.31 | 2,428 | 44.9%1,091 W · 1,337 L | -31.5wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf51b…ca1bbacked No | 40c | 25.47$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.28 | 1,274 | 34%433 W · 841 L | +46.9wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x358b…3722backed Yes | 70c | 24.73$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.26 | 525 | 33.1%174 W · 351 L | +21.7wins | +0.04per pick | 29cpaid | +27.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdc5b…619abacked No | 59c | 24.6$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 274 | 64.6%177 W · 97 L | -1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3972…a677backed No | 56c | 22.01$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.78 | 817 | 56.4%461 W · 356 L | -23.0wins | -0.03per pick | 59cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4248…60abbacked No | 70c | 21.55$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.47 | 2,219 | 58.7%1,303 W · 916 L | -11.5wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb68…e362backed No | 59c | 21$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.54 | 2,118 | 59.1%1,251 W · 867 L | +107.9wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x361c…99d4backed No | 78c | 20.87$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.59 | 119 | 65.5%78 W · 41 L | -5.9wins | -0.05per pick | 70cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 79c | 20.1$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.22 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf528…7e5bbacked No | 80c | 17.26$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.5 | 1,313 | 76.1%999 W · 314 L | +20.9wins | +0.02per pick | 74cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2aec…6e19backed Yes | 68c | 16.02$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.94 | 28 | 39.3%11 W · 17 L | -1.8wins | -0.07per pick | 46cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x53bc…be7cbacked No | 78c | 15.18$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.34 | 627 | 70.5%442 W · 185 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 71cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 22°C on May 25?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 19°C on May 25?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 20°C on May 25?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 21°C on May 25?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 23°C on May 25?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 24°C on May 25?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 25°C on May 25?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.