Tennis · resolved market
Set Handicap: Shelton (-1.5) vs Opelka (+1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x8e6fe133411a90b338a8f2f49b9f8c043379b6c9b1b563c195a40fb0f417e829
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Opelkaof Shelton, Opelka
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $6,694
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $6,694 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 20 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc400…f991backed Shelton | 57c | 2,272$1,300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,300 | 33 | 54.5%18 W · 15 L | -1.0wins | -0.03per pick | 58cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Opelka | 43c | 862.58$372 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$491.01 | 7,018 | 43.2%3,031 W · 3,987 L | +124.9wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9c76…c926backed Opelka | 44c | 500$220 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$280 | 4,076 | 39.7%1,620 W · 2,456 L | +93.7wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Shelton | 50c | 452.67$228 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$228.43 | 1,809 | 43.8%793 W · 1,016 L | -2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc4db…7e0cbacked Opelka | 45c | 249.98$112 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$137.49 | 3,871 | 35%1,353 W · 2,518 L | +92.5wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x246d…c74dbacked Shelton | 60c | 208.47$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125 | 180 | 53.9%97 W · 83 L | -4.4wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9069…9c14backed Shelton | 55c | 181.82$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 184 | 54.3%100 W · 84 L | +3.8wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8d88…1e28backed Opelka | 45c | 162.82$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.55 | 288 | 35.1%101 W · 187 L | -1.7wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x622b…5a4abacked Opelka | 47c | 134.99$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.54 | 350 | 40.9%143 W · 207 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x55fc…8b73backed Opelka | 47c | 106.38$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.38 | 47 | 42.6%20 W · 27 L | -2.6wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -12%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4fab…708bbacked Shelton | 54c | 101.85$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55 | 1,276 | 30.4%388 W · 888 L | -11.5wins | -0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xddf5…aaa3backed Opelka | 47c | 95.85$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.85 | 692 | 53.3%369 W · 323 L | -10.4wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5e30…acbfbacked Shelton | 51c | 92$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.92 | 7,724 | 47.8%3,691 W · 4,033 L | +41.2wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9271…a28abacked Shelton | 54c | 66$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.64 | 552 | 41.3%228 W · 324 L | -2.1wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdd5b…31fcbacked Shelton | 52c | 59.77$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.08 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +0.9wins | +0.10per pick | 57cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x35ea…99bcbacked Opelka | 51c | 50$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.5 | 240 | 60.8%146 W · 94 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa559…6dbbbacked Shelton | 53c | 43.24$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.97 | 619 | 53.3%330 W · 289 L | +18.9wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc95f…357fbacked Shelton | 52c | 35$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.2 | 27 | 51.9%14 W · 13 L | +1.4wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9ace…0f16backed Opelka | 48c | 31.37$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.37 | 19 | 36.8%7 W · 12 L | -2.1wins | -0.11per pick | 48cpaid | -26.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x55ec…b81ebacked Shelton | 55c | 25$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.75 | 62 | 59.7%37 W · 25 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Set Handicap: Shelton (-1.5) vs Opelka (+1.5)this page
- BNP Paribas Open: Ben Shelton vs Reilly OpelkaBen Shelton won
- Ben Shelton vs. Reilly Opelka: Total Sets O/U 2.5Over 2.5 won
- Set 1 Winner: Shelton vs OpelkaOpelka won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.