South American Leagues · resolved market
Will CA Lanús win on 2026-07-22?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x8e70c2c5144df04a8ba3e18f21f1a7bc4eeb0679764184504dd1b4ab8350b325
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- South American Leaguesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $125,346
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $95,149
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $125,346 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 51 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in South American Leagues is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x122b…ac59backed No | 16c | 43,344$7,060 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$7,059.98 | 87 | 43.7%38 W · 49 L | +8.9wins | +0.10per pick | 33cpaid | +112%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed No | 20c | 10,778$2,185 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,185.1 | 8,107 | 48.7%3,948 W · 4,159 L | +26.8wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4f29…7a7ebacked No | 19c | 9,467$1,752 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,751.54 | 752 | 40.8%307 W · 445 L | -17.0wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed No | 21c | 4,285$890 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$890.02 | 3,749 | 38.2%1,431 W · 2,318 L | -33.3wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x76bc…fccabacked No | 11c | 4,281$481 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$481.15 | 127 | 38.6%49 W · 78 L | +5.1wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | +96.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdb5a…8445backed No | 18c | 3,637$641 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$640.57 | 77 | 23.4%18 W · 59 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 23cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe337…4ad6backed No | 21c | 2,802$587 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$587.45 | 191 | 55.5%106 W · 85 L | +6.4wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf16e…43afbacked No | 13c | 2,286$286 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$286.39 | 31 | 29%9 W · 22 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 27cpaid | +287.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7eb6…8b20backed No | 13c | 1,871$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x00fd…32a0backed No | 18c | 1,464$263 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$263.31 | 30 | 40%12 W · 18 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | +28.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x13e4…8b89backed No | 17c | 834.97$142 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$141.94 | 106 | 49.1%52 W · 54 L | +3.1wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8fe7…4f20backed No | 12c | 700$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84 | 200 | 46%92 W · 108 L | -6.3wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Yes | 74c | 466.98$345 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$121.99 | 1,944 | 51.3%998 W · 946 L | +40.6wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd75a…d264backed Yes | 80c | 389.42$311 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.52 | 41 | 48.8%20 W · 21 L | +1.7wins | +0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x84cf…2f63backed No | 24c | 294.6$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.64 | 289 | 40.1%116 W · 173 L | -6.9wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x24bf…b006backed No | 25c | 263.63$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.65 | 78 | 56.4%44 W · 34 L | +5.9wins | +0.08per pick | 49cpaid | +14.1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9df2…99f5backed No | 10c | 249.99$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 181 | 40.3%73 W · 108 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x976a…e8ecbacked Yes | 79c | 215$170 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.15 | 290 | 47.6%138 W · 152 L | +3.9wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4aa7…eccfbacked No | 5c | 200$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | +0.6wins | +0.06per pick | 34cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe105…1efbbacked No | 28c | 178.6$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.01 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfb0c…8c72backed No | 24c | 156.96$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.99 | 559 | 46%257 W · 302 L | -19.0wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7d0c…a3b7backed No | 26c | 148.15$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.52 | 2,335 | 51.5%1,202 W · 1,133 L | +2.6wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcaea…5795backed No | 15c | 146.39$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.4 | 42 | 28.6%12 W · 30 L | -6.8wins | -0.16per pick | 45cpaid | -50.4%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x16b2…aa5abacked Yes | 77c | 129.71$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.83 | 145 | 70.3%102 W · 43 L | +22.6wins | +0.16per pick | 55cpaid | +26.5%equal weight | 65+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x0aba…1910backed Yes | 74c | 101.35$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.35 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 72cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd5b8…233abacked No | 32c | 100$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 36 | 30.6%11 W · 25 L | -3.9wins | -0.11per pick | 41cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa807…cc2ebacked Yes | 68c | 89.11$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.28 | 48 | 41.7%20 W · 28 L | -3.1wins | -0.06per pick | 48cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 73c | 79.34$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.27 | 1,439 | 37.5%540 W · 899 L | +4.1wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0d5f…1171backed No | 18c | 76.34$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.71 | 333 | 65.5%218 W · 115 L | +10.7wins | +0.03per pick | 62cpaid | +5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x06a9…1a49backed Yes | 76c | 65.68$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.68 | 402 | 42%169 W · 233 L | -13.3wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf60b…c18ebacked No | 24c | 62.72$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.05 | 213 | 45.1%96 W · 117 L | -3.8wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked No | 20c | 56$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.01 | 1,328 | 57%757 W · 571 L | +57.8wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x22da…2866backed No | 20c | 53.04$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.76 | 630 | 61.3%386 W · 244 L | +22.3wins | +0.04per pick | 58cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xba02…7dd2backed No | 21c | 52.86$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.1 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd2e8…c60ebacked Yes | 79c | 51.48$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.81 | 13 | 76.9%10 W · 3 L | +3.4wins | +0.26per pick | 51cpaid | +67.8%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x7d93…fdefbacked Yes | 79c | 50$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.5 | 190 | 53.2%101 W · 89 L | +3.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa1a7…ace4backed Yes | 80c | 50$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 183 | 59%108 W · 75 L | +5.3wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | -3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3250…7beabacked No | 20c | 50$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe839…0a9dbacked Yes | 79c | 48.33$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.15 | 15 | 73.3%11 W · 4 L | +2.9wins | +0.19per pick | 54cpaid | +81.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4abd…5a5cbacked Yes | 79c | 48.33$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.15 | 9 | 77.8%7 W · 2 L | +2.1wins | +0.23per pick | 54cpaid | +106.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8558…8615backed Yes | 79c | 46.23$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.71 | 12 | 66.7%8 W · 4 L | +1.6wins | +0.14per pick | 53cpaid | +47.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbb3e…b9c5backed Yes | 79c | 45.18$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.49 | 12 | 75%9 W · 3 L | +1.4wins | +0.11per pick | 64cpaid | +15.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7345…4b28backed Yes | 74c | 41.66$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.83 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +35.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4f1d…8de2backed Yes | 73c | 36.74$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.92 | 38 | 44.7%17 W · 21 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -31.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8935…7daabacked Yes | 75c | 33.53$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.55 | 675 | 48%324 W · 351 L | -18.6wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0464…67dabacked Yes | 71c | 32.38$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.39 | 138 | 56.5%78 W · 60 L | +4.0wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x15ee…81b5backed Yes | 74c | 27.03$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.03 | 17 | 70.6%12 W · 5 L | +1.0wins | +0.06per pick | 65cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x397e…3d84backed Yes | 77c | 22$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.06 | 992 | 59.1%586 W · 406 L | +108.7wins | +0.11per pick | 48cpaid | +26.3%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xb6a1…ab16backed Yes | 74c | 16.22$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.22 | 48 | 72.9%35 W · 13 L | +5.0wins | +0.10per pick | 63cpaid | +18.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7a3f…6712backed Yes | 79c | 15$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.15 | 190 | 50.5%96 W · 94 L | +2.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd22…430ebacked Yes | 80c | 12.5$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.5 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.07per pick | 27cpaid | -58.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will CA Lanús win on 2026-07-22?this page
- Will CA Lanús vs. CS Cienciano end in a draw?No won
- Will CS Cienciano win on 2026-07-22?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.