Music · resolved market
Will Golden (Ejae and Mark Sonnenblick) be nominated for Song of the Year at the 68th Annual GRAMMY Awards?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x8e7377c30edaff81b89456f2573213074792c56b3ca143bdeb38f25ad9d283eb
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Musicevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $3,377
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $3,365
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $3,377 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 16 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Music is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Music | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x9d32…f8d3backed Yes | 34c | 887$302 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$585.42 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.66per pick | 34cpaid | +194.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3f3b…1d77backed Yes | 69c | 382.26$264 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$118.5 | 49 | 30.6%15 W · 34 L | +1.6wins | +0.03per pick | 27cpaid | +11.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6b44…be1ebacked No | 31c | 350$109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108.5 | 35 | 45.7%16 W · 19 L | +2.5wins | +0.07per pick | 38cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8fc5…f5fbbacked Yes | 67c | 299.99$201 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$99 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.33per pick | 67cpaid | +49.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x28ca…5d19backed No | 33c | 276$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.08 | 87 | 37.9%33 W · 54 L | -4.0wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -10%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3004…710cbacked No | 66c | 242$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$159.72 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.66per pick | 66cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1c57…5155backed No | 66c | 220$144 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$144.1 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.66per pick | 66cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea2…02cfbacked No | 66c | 218$144 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$143.88 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.66per pick | 66cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7553…533ebacked No | 66c | 175$116 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.66per pick | 66cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4544…5106backed No | 66c | 165$109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108.9 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.66per pick | 66cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x38e5…95e7backed Yes | 35c | 133$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.68 | 44 | 34.1%15 W · 29 L | -1.7wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe542…0a37backed No | 30c | 100$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 81 | 22.2%18 W · 63 L | +1.9wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | +75%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed Yes | 70c | 100$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.29 | 391 | 16.1%63 W · 328 L | -44.4wins | -0.11per pick | 27cpaid | -48.6%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x0781…c4ffbacked No | 30c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.17 | 87 | 39.1%34 W · 53 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9dd9…08bdbacked Yes | 51c | 22$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.79 | 55 | 63.6%35 W · 20 L | +5.3wins | +0.10per pick | 54cpaid | +19%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc684…2228backed Yes | 75c | 17.1$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.28 | 67 | 46.3%31 W · 36 L | +3.0wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Music and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Golden (Ejae and Mark Sonnenblick) be nominated for Song of the Year at the 68th Annual GRAMMY Awards?this page
- Will Abracadabra (Lady Gaga) be nominated for Song of the Year at the 68th Annual GRAMMY Awards?Yes won
- Will Luther (Kendrick Lamar and SZA) be nominated for Song of the Year at the 68th Annual GRAMMY Awards?Yes won
- Will Wildflower (Billie Eilish) be nominated for Song of the Year at the 68th Annual GRAMMY Awards?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.