Tennis · resolved market
Australian Open Men's: Jason Kubler vs Harold Mayot
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x8e8d2b402bd85900fef074b520d40149f063f7754918eaeb476d8e291f7b82a7
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Kublerof Kubler, Mayot
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $29,816
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $33,892
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $29,816 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 35 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc0ac…fd51backed Kubler | 52c | 3,813$2,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,813.42 | 284 | 44.7%127 W · 157 L | +13.7wins | +0.05per pick | 40cpaid | +13.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Mayot | 35c | 3,800$1,348 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,347.74 | 7,018 | 43.2%3,031 W · 3,987 L | +124.9wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Mayot | 1c | 2,060$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.31 | 2,331 | 7.9%183 W · 2,148 L | -56.9wins | -0.02per pick | 10cpaid | -60.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x29c0…efaabacked Mayot | 49c | 1,383$681 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$680.55 | 551 | 43.4%239 W · 312 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa82a…a759backed Kubler | 52c | 1,018$529 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$488.76 | 339 | 55.2%187 W · 152 L | +18.2wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6ad8…9bc1backed Mayot | 6c | 903.98$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.65 | 138 | 34.1%47 W · 91 L | -8.2wins | -0.06per pick | 40cpaid | -42.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Mayot | 26c | 875.73$228 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$228.3 | 2,489 | 45.2%1,126 W · 1,363 L | -27.4wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x908a…ad16backed Kubler | 51c | 833.49$424 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$409.32 | 1,655 | 50.1%829 W · 826 L | +30.2wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x08ce…f301backed Mayot | 37c | 641.16$234 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$234.36 | 140 | 28.6%40 W · 100 L | -6.4wins | -0.05per pick | 33cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed Mayot | 8c | 312$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.48 | 459 | 9.6%44 W · 415 L | +1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 9cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Mayot | 47c | 248$117 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$116.56 | 1,809 | 43.8%793 W · 1,016 L | -2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x66b1…340fbacked Mayot | 52c | 215$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111.8 | 1,158 | 44.4%514 W · 644 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x44f0…432cbacked Mayot | 48c | 214.5$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.96 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3fbc…9cf6backed Mayot | 48c | 208.33$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 53 | 47.2%25 W · 28 L | -1.9wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5b20…99e9backed Mayot | 50c | 204.1$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102 | 434 | 48.4%210 W · 224 L | -5.4wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…4d2dbacked Mayot | 7c | 200$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 108 | 9.3%10 W · 98 L | +2.5wins | +0.02per pick | 7cpaid | -32.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe061…93f9backed Mayot | 6c | 200$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 78 | 3.8%3 W · 75 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 6cpaid | -55%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x57d5…0bbdbacked Mayot | 21c | 186.39$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.3 | 276 | 27.2%75 W · 201 L | -25.2wins | -0.09per pick | 36cpaid | -36.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x1624…bf63backed Mayot | 10c | 167$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.7 | 1,106 | 41%454 W · 652 L | +2.5wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xec5b…aff2backed Mayot | 51c | 157.92$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 110 | 46.4%51 W · 59 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9dd9…08bdbacked Kubler | 77c | 157$121 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.19 | 1,852 | 44.5%825 W · 1,027 L | -20.3wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x70ac…0c7dbacked Mayot | 28c | 107.68$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.87 | 2,537 | 53.6%1,361 W · 1,176 L | +61.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc6c8…dd64backed Kubler | 48c | 104.17$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.17 | 134 | 61.9%83 W · 51 L | +3.4wins | +0.03per pick | 59cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe6f0…5701backed Mayot | 10c | 103.08$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.67 | 186 | 44.6%83 W · 103 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdb1e…230abacked Mayot | 11c | 100$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 318 | 19.2%61 W · 257 L | -8.0wins | -0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x972b…78babacked Kubler | 76c | 85.52$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.85 | 2,982 | 39.1%1,167 W · 1,815 L | -109.1wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -30.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbe71…72a4backed Mayot | 18c | 64.13$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.83 | 37 | 48.6%18 W · 19 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -16.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3fa2…6f8cbacked Mayot | 51c | 63$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.13 | 26 | 50%13 W · 13 L | +0.9wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb581…0308backed Mayot | 50c | 60$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 36 | 58.3%21 W · 15 L | +3.4wins | +0.09per pick | 49cpaid | +48.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…e8a2backed Kubler | 79c | 59.71$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.45 | 884 | 55%486 W · 398 L | +37.4wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa00f…8e56backed Kubler | 79c | 57.89$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.12 | 161 | 50.3%81 W · 80 L | +6.4wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeabd…8115backed Kubler | 54c | 46.3$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.3 | 70 | 41.4%29 W · 41 L | -5.9wins | -0.08per pick | 50cpaid | -27%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0f8e…3082backed Kubler | 75c | 37.8$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.56 | 1,218 | 41.1%500 W · 718 L | -30.1wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -16%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…de52backed Kubler | 49c | 25$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.75 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -12%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf1dc…1068backed Kubler | 79c | 14.48$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.05 | 33 | 51.5%17 W · 16 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.