World Politics · resolved market
Will the Bank of Canada announce a 25 bps decrease at the December meeting?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x8e9ec3b4e955a048a955c27f9f9f3d58e4c24908a5213d65d989d79035ed510b
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $49,243
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $40,093
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $49,243 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 25 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in World Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xde04…fa37backed Yes | 4c | 9,331$351 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$350.93 | 88 | 21.6%19 W · 69 L | -3.7wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -53.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x65f7…86ddbacked Yes | 6c | 5,119$291 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$290.93 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x38e5…95e7backed Yes | 3c | 2,465$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.26 | 150 | 26%39 W · 111 L | -6.7wins | -0.04per pick | 30cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xed7f…3a02backed Yes | 5c | 2,006$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105.39 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x28fd…dc50backed Yes | 7c | 1,995$144 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$143.7 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd3fb…57e5backed Yes | 5c | 1,482$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.91 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa35d…e086backed Yes | 2c | 1,176$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8823…175cbacked Yes | 2c | 1,024$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.54 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2a1f…7f05backed Yes | 2c | 1,000$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 3c | 944.62$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.48 | 1,431 | 10.1%145 W · 1,286 L | -4.9wins | 0.00per pick | 10cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcf95…7865backed Yes | 4c | 766.75$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.39 | 347 | 26.8%93 W · 254 L | -12.3wins | -0.04per pick | 30cpaid | -31.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe8a6…644bbacked Yes | 4c | 500$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 44 | 50%22 W · 22 L | +6.8wins | +0.15per pick | 35cpaid | +28.8%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xaf9f…624cbacked Yes | 5c | 500$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.7 | 40 | 15%6 W · 34 L | +1.3wins | +0.03per pick | 12cpaid | -44.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcf0e…79c8backed Yes | 2c | 500$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.01 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.06per pick | 28cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd4ab…d689backed Yes | 8c | 495$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.25 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.3wins | +0.06per pick | 28cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd7ad…9de7backed Yes | 5c | 377.36$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5838…3636backed Yes | 5c | 350$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.75 | 47 | 53.2%25 W · 22 L | +6.0wins | +0.13per pick | 40cpaid | +77.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x04dc…2387backed Yes | 7c | 225$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.75 | 123 | 32.5%40 W · 83 L | -1.7wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x211f…8e0fbacked Yes | 4c | 222.86$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9898…0a7dbacked Yes | 11c | 200$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -0.8wins | -0.10per pick | 23cpaid | -79%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9ede…c417backed Yes | 12c | 200$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 29 | 17.2%5 W · 24 L | -4.2wins | -0.14per pick | 32cpaid | -59.8%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x9dd9…08bdbacked No | 72c | 173$125 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.59 | 192 | 37.5%72 W · 120 L | -6.1wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xee5d…9c22backed Yes | 32c | 78.44$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8a7b…782fbacked No | 68c | 73.44$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.5 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | +1.3wins | +0.12per pick | 24cpaid | +21.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 28c | 48$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.44 | 1,318 | 43.9%579 W · 739 L | -26.8wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -13%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the Bank of Canada announce a 25 bps decrease at the December meeting?this page
- Will the Bank of Canada announce a 50+ bps decrease at the December meeting?No won
- Will the Bank of Canada announce an increase at the December meeting?No won
- Will the Bank of Canada announce no change at the December meeting?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.