Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 27°C on August 17?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x8ec4f38d292a5e803fc3b8b3b967552903c575328db6e74dba3a9071f00a2fa4
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $22,839
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $26,756
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $22,839 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 73 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2c57…372dbacked Yes | 32c | 801.32$254 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$547.33 | 1,531 | 24.2%371 W · 1,160 L | +15.4wins | +0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -10%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5028…91c5backed No | 35c | 778.39$276 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$275.79 | 886 | 28.9%256 W · 630 L | -22.6wins | -0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -41.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ce3…4291backed Yes | 27c | 591.13$159 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$431.86 | 2,165 | 23.8%516 W · 1,649 L | +83.8wins | +0.04per pick | 20cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x441a…e9c7backed No | 70c | 585$410 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$409.5 | 395 | 43.5%172 W · 223 L | -12.7wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcac7…37d8backed Yes | 30c | 517.23$155 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$362.23 | 82 | 40.2%33 W · 49 L | +2.3wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 48c | 499.17$239 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$239.14 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa12d…4c1bbacked No | 45c | 491.85$219 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$219.38 | 202 | 41.1%83 W · 119 L | -6.2wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x97d8…0a12backed No | 67c | 424.72$285 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$284.94 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 66cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x229c…b966backed No | 11c | 393.26$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.97 | 1,567 | 37.2%583 W · 984 L | +243.6wins | +0.16per pick | 22cpaid | +25.1%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xd251…4d37backed Yes | 34c | 362.29$124 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$237.84 | 1,697 | 42.4%720 W · 977 L | +56.9wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9e3e…f882backed Yes | 52c | 302.28$157 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$145.32 | 403 | 37.2%150 W · 253 L | -4.5wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xed22…6450backed Yes | 37c | 289.7$107 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$182.67 | 431 | 39.2%169 W · 262 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0a68…edd3backed Yes | 78c | 264.85$207 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.27 | 182 | 35.2%64 W · 118 L | -14.0wins | -0.08per pick | 43cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 70c | 231.3$162 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$161.55 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe40a…e4a2backed No | 30c | 226.19$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.9 | 1,316 | 56.2%740 W · 576 L | -18.6wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x180e…29dfbacked No | 72c | 213.25$154 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$153.85 | 508 | 60.4%307 W · 201 L | +18.3wins | +0.04per pick | 57cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6868…5198backed Yes | 46c | 211.22$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$113.7 | 1,401 | 27.3%383 W · 1,018 L | +69.5wins | +0.05per pick | 22cpaid | +18.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbfc1…ee2fbacked Yes | 33c | 209.98$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$140.63 | 91 | 39.6%36 W · 55 L | +12.2wins | +0.13per pick | 26cpaid | +85.2%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x6845…c125backed Yes | 45c | 208$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$114.4 | 99 | 13.1%13 W · 86 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 13cpaid | -45.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed No | 36c | 193.82$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.27 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 34c | 148.79$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98.75 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x6243…e014backed Yes | 39c | 146.3$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.67 | 232 | 43.5%101 W · 131 L | +24.3wins | +0.10per pick | 33cpaid | +25%equal weight | 61+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x42e5…c9a7backed Yes | 34c | 145.93$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.77 | 410 | 33.7%138 W · 272 L | +20.9wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | +19.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x10b0…9288backed No | 71c | 136.48$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.3 | 172 | 62.2%107 W · 65 L | -3.1wins | -0.02per pick | 64cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfb69…06a9backed Yes | 77c | 129.97$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.97 | 142 | 52.1%74 W · 68 L | +8.1wins | +0.06per pick | 46cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb12d…62b4backed Yes | 75c | 127.77$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.75 | 51 | 29.4%15 W · 36 L | -1.4wins | -0.03per pick | 32cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbb1a…1e6dbacked No | 17c | 115.55$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.1 | 1,359 | 30.2%411 W · 948 L | -92.9wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1941…deeabacked Yes | 34c | 112.99$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.08 | 1,072 | 36.6%392 W · 680 L | +25.9wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfc7b…7a75backed Yes | 56c | 107.49$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.49 | 271 | 29.2%79 W · 192 L | -3.4wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -23.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x38a1…3154backed No | 70c | 106$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.58 | 2,067 | 74.6%1,542 W · 525 L | +23.8wins | +0.01per pick | 73cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x28ea…7367backed No | 73c | 102.32$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.69 | 1,896 | 61.5%1,166 W · 730 L | -5.9wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe086…0450backed No | 11c | 100$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 1,243 | 52.5%652 W · 591 L | -18.7wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x33ab…149bbacked No | 68c | 99.57$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.71 | 205 | 69.8%143 W · 62 L | +9.0wins | +0.04per pick | 65cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6786…c8ffbacked Yes | 35c | 88$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.28 | 324 | 40.1%130 W · 194 L | +12.6wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb87f…f7d4backed No | 73c | 85.29$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.25 | 149 | 57.7%86 W · 63 L | +6.1wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xca1f…d282backed No | 16c | 78$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.48 | 1,722 | 64%1,102 W · 620 L | -10.1wins | -0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3990…06bebacked Yes | 29c | 74.99$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.45 | 299 | 27.8%83 W · 216 L | -2.2wins | -0.01per pick | 28cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked Yes | 38c | 73.4$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.63 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2e1f…8fdebacked No | 30c | 70$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 982 | 36.7%360 W · 622 L | +37.9wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd7c2…e1e0backed No | 73c | 66.31$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.4 | 172 | 51.7%89 W · 83 L | +3.5wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x052e…701abacked Yes | 34c | 65.99$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.55 | 16 | 62.5%10 W · 6 L | +2.6wins | +0.16per pick | 46cpaid | +70.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7b20…eb02backed Yes | 30c | 60$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42 | 348 | 46.6%162 W · 186 L | +14.6wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6aa5…7059backed Yes | 34c | 54.98$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.29 | 39 | 48.7%19 W · 20 L | +3.8wins | +0.10per pick | 39cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc662…0927backed Yes | 31c | 50.09$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.58 | 1,190 | 57.9%689 W · 501 L | -5.0wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa9a1…13d6backed Yes | 30c | 49.77$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.84 | 69 | 49.3%34 W · 35 L | +3.1wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x38e2…2909backed No | 29c | 48.91$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 3,479 | 53%1,845 W · 1,634 L | +72.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0428…7d12backed No | 65c | 43$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.95 | 301 | 36.9%111 W · 190 L | -8.5wins | -0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x41e6…66b7backed No | 68c | 41.48$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.04 | 468 | 57.3%268 W · 200 L | -22.3wins | -0.05per pick | 62cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2b95…898abacked Yes | 72c | 40.92$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.56 | 301 | 68.8%207 W · 94 L | +6.4wins | +0.02per pick | 67cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeef1…21b8backed Yes | 30c | 40$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28 | 435 | 40.5%176 W · 259 L | +9.8wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf0ac…80c0backed Yes | 77c | 39.84$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.31 | 30 | 83.3%25 W · 5 L | +5.7wins | +0.19per pick | 64cpaid | +27.7%equal weight | 62+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xea21…f753backed Yes | 40c | 36$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.51 | 236 | 68.2%161 W · 75 L | +18.8wins | +0.08per pick | 60cpaid | +14.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe54c…2c69backed Yes | 30c | 34.99$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.49 | 255 | 60.8%155 W · 100 L | +16.2wins | +0.06per pick | 54cpaid | +14%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 69c | 34.97$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.22 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5bc9…b2eebacked No | 72c | 34.72$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 22 | 45.5%10 W · 12 L | -1.9wins | -0.08per pick | 54cpaid | -27%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 38c | 31$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.22 | 2,823 | 11.2%316 W · 2,507 L | +17.7wins | +0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1822…022fbacked Yes | 35c | 30$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.45 | 155 | 20.6%32 W · 123 L | -7.3wins | -0.05per pick | 25cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…dd60backed No | 72c | 30$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.7 | 3,301 | 65%2,147 W · 1,154 L | -38.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 65c | 28.69$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.59 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8629…ce84backed No | 71c | 27.77$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.72 | 82 | 61%50 W · 32 L | -2.0wins | -0.02per pick | 63cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x32a8…be9bbacked Yes | 75c | 26$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.44 | 86 | 67.4%58 W · 28 L | +10.6wins | +0.12per pick | 55cpaid | +18.1%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x16c7…22cdbacked Yes | 57c | 25.64$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.96 | 2,075 | 58.9%1,223 W · 852 L | +102.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6b41…f999backed Yes | 80c | 22.13$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.52 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x91d8…1c0bbacked Yes | 74c | 20.71$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.45 | 14 | 78.6%11 W · 3 L | +1.0wins | +0.07per pick | 71cpaid | +12%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2d62…144dbacked No | 58c | 20.53$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.83 | 60 | 26.7%16 W · 44 L | -19.6wins | -0.33per pick | 59cpaid | -61%equal weight | 24-0.23 edge/pick |
| 0x302e…88ccbacked No | 66c | 20$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.2 | 32 | 40.6%13 W · 19 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbbb7…a11abacked No | 74c | 20$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.8 | 1,196 | 57.9%693 W · 503 L | +47.6wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x50b0…7dc5backed No | 71c | 20$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.15 | 93 | 60.2%56 W · 37 L | -2.0wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x58a3…c5cebacked No | 60c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 77 | 48.1%37 W · 40 L | +3.2wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x69f0…fb27backed Yes | 58c | 19.21$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.03 | 2,118 | 58.2%1,233 W · 885 L | +78.8wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2349…1646backed Yes | 68c | 18.41$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.88 | 482 | 61.8%298 W · 184 L | +43.5wins | +0.09per pick | 53cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x184b…67b2backed Yes | 72c | 16.8$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.75 | 21 | 81%17 W · 4 L | +4.3wins | +0.21per pick | 60cpaid | +33.9%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x942e…be27backed No | 72c | 15$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.75 | 2,010 | 61.5%1,237 W · 773 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 27°C on August 17?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 24°C on August 17?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 25°C on August 17?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 26°C on August 17?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 28°C on August 17?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 29°C on August 17?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.