Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 12°C on May 13?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x8ed94b5327e3c48e8519a64a7397cd2b1b39f7d9fb2b222bab9f66609b77611c
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $11,462
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $13,142
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $11,462 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 65 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x56b3…3fa2backed Yes | 48c | 751.82$362 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$390.22 | 895 | 44.7%400 W · 495 L | +30.5wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 24c | 356.46$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$271.62 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x672f…13ccbacked Yes | 72c | 355.45$256 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$99.85 | 330 | 58.8%194 W · 136 L | +10.8wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 34c | 315.31$107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$107.18 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0f12…59ddbacked No | 48c | 305.94$146 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$146.35 | 940 | 66.4%624 W · 316 L | +3.4wins | 0.00per pick | 66cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5264…9a63backed Yes | 15c | 299.99$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$254.99 | 740 | 23.9%177 W · 563 L | +23.6wins | +0.03per pick | 21cpaid | +23.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5e2f…f9babacked Yes | 28c | 240.41$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$173.27 | 165 | 32.1%53 W · 112 L | -9.4wins | -0.06per pick | 38cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xaafc…ec67backed Yes | 51c | 184.6$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90.37 | 447 | 57.3%256 W · 191 L | +53.9wins | +0.12per pick | 45cpaid | +24%equal weight | 63+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x52a4…ca72backed Yes | 30c | 176.15$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$124.04 | 66 | 31.8%21 W · 45 L | -1.2wins | -0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -28.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x391d…def1backed No | 48c | 174.71$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.36 | 468 | 24.4%114 W · 354 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -27.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x80cb…4629backed Yes | 23c | 174.69$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$134.69 | 153 | 21.6%33 W · 120 L | +8.1wins | +0.05per pick | 16cpaid | +20.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc1e5…c5dfbacked Yes | 24c | 159.64$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$121.55 | 47 | 29.8%14 W · 33 L | -2.8wins | -0.06per pick | 36cpaid | -18.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked No | 28c | 158.19$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.55 | 3,474 | 33.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L | -175.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd1a6…1507backed No | 36c | 144.56$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.03 | 2,626 | 54%1,418 W · 1,208 L | -56.4wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xae68…064abacked No | 71c | 136.37$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.23 | 2,555 | 63.8%1,631 W · 924 L | +38.4wins | +0.02per pick | 62cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 11c | 136.34$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$122.01 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf3d2…6efcbacked Yes | 14c | 120.98$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$103.99 | 219 | 30.1%66 W · 153 L | +15.3wins | +0.07per pick | 23cpaid | +38.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x167e…0f16backed No | 79c | 105.17$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.72 | 83 | 61.4%51 W · 32 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x37e9…ab9fbacked Yes | 52c | 104.9$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.42 | 245 | 42.9%105 W · 140 L | +5.9wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 51c | 103.13$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.98 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc120…a7e3backed No | 46c | 100.96$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.67 | 1,299 | 54.1%703 W · 596 L | +24.7wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x85c0…e01dbacked Yes | 25c | 100$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75 | 1,032 | 24.3%251 W · 781 L | +40.9wins | +0.04per pick | 20cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9b72…a958backed Yes | 31c | 97.71$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.7 | 686 | 45.8%314 W · 372 L | -10.7wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 61c | 96.7$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.86 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2754…1668backed No | 54c | 93.61$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.71 | 1,018 | 60.2%613 W · 405 L | +13.5wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 19c | 93$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.48 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204b…75f3backed Yes | 54c | 87.71$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.58 | 221 | 71%157 W · 64 L | +14.5wins | +0.07per pick | 65cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 59c | 70$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.07 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5964…35dfbacked No | 37c | 69.99$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.96 | 1,279 | 33.6%430 W · 849 L | -6.3wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0619…0379backed No | 60c | 62.56$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.63 | 548 | 57.5%315 W · 233 L | +13.1wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x942d…278ebacked Yes | 31c | 61.75$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.35 | 434 | 30.9%134 W · 300 L | +10.2wins | +0.02per pick | 29cpaid | +78.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 41c | 56$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.95 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe587…dc56backed Yes | 61c | 53.72$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.81 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +0.5wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdedd…17e1backed No | 47c | 53.18$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.88 | 2,432 | 60.4%1,470 W · 962 L | +30.2wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1e72…bd5dbacked Yes | 59c | 50$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.5 | 60 | 65%39 W · 21 L | +8.1wins | +0.14per pick | 51cpaid | +20.2%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x2986…b3a9backed No | 30c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2,995 | 31.4%940 W · 2,055 L | +41.6wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x84b9…7f7fbacked Yes | 49c | 46.91$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.82 | 357 | 42.9%153 W · 204 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -9%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x75f3…fe29backed No | 49c | 46$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.46 | 521 | 55.3%288 W · 233 L | -5.9wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe422…4d64backed No | 41c | 45$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.45 | 2,065 | 43.6%900 W · 1,165 L | -11.3wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8971…809dbacked No | 67c | 44.99$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.14 | 1,959 | 46%901 W · 1,058 L | -51.3wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1f12…9424backed Yes | 27c | 44.44$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.44 | 175 | 53.7%94 W · 81 L | +9.6wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +14.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 65c | 44$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.52 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3ec4…ce94backed No | 49c | 39.99$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.74 | 32 | 56.3%18 W · 14 L | +2.3wins | +0.07per pick | 49cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x46d3…2c20backed Yes | 26c | 38.72$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.72 | 166 | 27.7%46 W · 120 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 28cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2995…8410backed Yes | 36c | 38.02$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.4 | 196 | 32.7%64 W · 132 L | -5.4wins | -0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x942e…be27backed No | 80c | 38$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.32 | 2,010 | 61.5%1,237 W · 773 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xed54…4967backed No | 51c | 36.72$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.74 | 498 | 54.6%272 W · 226 L | +46.4wins | +0.09per pick | 45cpaid | +20.6%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x726e…aafbbacked Yes | 80c | 36$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.3 | 232 | 69%160 W · 72 L | +23.7wins | +0.10per pick | 59cpaid | +27.2%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x75b0…e7b7backed No | 78c | 35$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.3 | 1,585 | 78.5%1,244 W · 341 L | +39.7wins | +0.03per pick | 76cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcac0…a0b8backed No | 78c | 33.16$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.71 | 19 | 73.7%14 W · 5 L | +2.4wins | +0.13per pick | 61cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xad42…c918backed No | 79c | 30.79$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.18 | 19 | 63.2%12 W · 7 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 64cpaid | +24.1%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x86c2…8010backed No | 41c | 30$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.3 | 1,271 | 47.6%605 W · 666 L | -25.1wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb4b8…733fbacked No | 51c | 29.42$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | -3.4wins | -0.26per pick | 57cpaid | -42.9%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xcfb5…c34fbacked No | 51c | 29.41$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 129 | 62.8%81 W · 48 L | -2.6wins | -0.02per pick | 65cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xadfb…f17cbacked Yes | 49c | 26$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.26 | 40 | 47.5%19 W · 21 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 80c | 25$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2cff…468bbacked No | 63c | 24$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.12 | 162 | 63%102 W · 60 L | +4.8wins | +0.03per pick | 60cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5848…1e49backed No | 63c | 24$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.12 | 863 | 62.9%543 W · 320 L | -1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 63cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0a8e…05a4backed Yes | 60c | 23.35$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.28 | 430 | 50.2%216 W · 214 L | +21.7wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 73c | 22.87$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.66 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3164…3c65backed No | 71c | 21.27$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.01 | 444 | 65.3%290 W · 154 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7b20…eb02backed Yes | 57c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.51 | 348 | 46.6%162 W · 186 L | +14.6wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2b3d…4785backed Yes | 58c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.4 | 25 | 56%14 W · 11 L | +2.8wins | +0.11per pick | 45cpaid | +14.8%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x01f2…c3debacked No | 58c | 19.52$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.4 | 125 | 38.4%48 W · 77 L | -18.5wins | -0.15per pick | 53cpaid | -38.2%equal weight | 36-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xe5b1…30b2backed No | 73c | 18.74$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.68 | 503 | 73.2%368 W · 135 L | +25.3wins | +0.05per pick | 68cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 12°C on May 13?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 11°C on May 13?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 13°C on May 13?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 14°C on May 13?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 15°C on May 13?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.