Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 13°C on May 13?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x646f6b239a5624b005f13b5534e782e0c4b6843a2f1ed96c8f8e0ded1d3494ee
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $9,016
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $9,317
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $9,016 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 71 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xa2c2…3c0abacked Yes | 1c | 1,507$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.72 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -1.0wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5278…5306backed Yes | 50c | 246.74$124 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$124.44 | 149 | 41.6%62 W · 87 L | -3.5wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4f73…a5f2backed Yes | 47c | 221.76$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105.31 | 158 | 43%68 W · 90 L | -8.5wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 36c | 203.45$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.79 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 35c | 200.77$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.27 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8961…ab1abacked No | 68c | 178.86$121 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.36 | 254 | 66.9%170 W · 84 L | -7.6wins | -0.03per pick | 70cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 79c | 156.2$124 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.11 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5e2f…f9babacked Yes | 39c | 147.91$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.05 | 165 | 32.1%53 W · 112 L | -9.4wins | -0.06per pick | 38cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd1a6…1507backed No | 79c | 144.56$115 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.67 | 2,626 | 54%1,418 W · 1,208 L | -56.4wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked No | 60c | 139.13$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.65 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf73f…ee53backed No | 60c | 129.7$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.06 | 2,950 | 33.6%992 W · 1,958 L | +9.9wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | +4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 64c | 120$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.29 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1735…0319backed Yes | 27c | 113.6$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.65 | 1,480 | 15.6%231 W · 1,249 L | +26.5wins | +0.02per pick | 14cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x80cb…4629backed Yes | 32c | 107.86$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.09 | 153 | 21.6%33 W · 120 L | +8.1wins | +0.05per pick | 16cpaid | +20.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6ca1…17e5backed Yes | 19c | 103.38$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.99 | 153 | 28.1%43 W · 110 L | +10.0wins | +0.07per pick | 22cpaid | +16.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 31c | 103.13$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.48 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x35af…8e95backed No | 55c | 91.74$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.42 | 77 | 62.3%48 W · 29 L | -2.0wins | -0.03per pick | 65cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9b72…a958backed Yes | 39c | 83.15$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.45 | 686 | 45.8%314 W · 372 L | -10.7wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2a87…a55abacked Yes | 35c | 80$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 1,112 | 35.1%390 W · 722 L | -13.2wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc120…a7e3backed No | 55c | 79.23$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.82 | 1,299 | 54.1%703 W · 596 L | +24.7wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2108…2e40backed Yes | 39c | 77$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.03 | 59 | 39%23 W · 36 L | -2.9wins | -0.05per pick | 44cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb3…1367backed No | 69c | 76.26$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.53 | 1,554 | 33.1%515 W · 1,039 L | -66.6wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 52c | 75.87$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.42 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x57b9…05a0backed Yes | 28c | 70.58$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.01 | 181 | 6.1%11 W · 170 L | -14.8wins | -0.08per pick | 14cpaid | -69.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 64c | 65$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.13 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4374…3d05backed No | 64c | 62.14$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.14 | 341 | 51.3%175 W · 166 L | -26.9wins | -0.08per pick | 59cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc6d8…b90dbacked No | 57c | 54$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.18 | 834 | 59.8%499 W · 335 L | +27.5wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xda91…d760backed Yes | 38c | 52$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.79 | 1,010 | 40.3%407 W · 603 L | +16.9wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4248…60abbacked No | 65c | 51.44$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.21 | 2,219 | 58.7%1,303 W · 916 L | -11.5wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0f12…59ddbacked Yes | 46c | 50.52$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.24 | 940 | 66.4%624 W · 316 L | +3.4wins | 0.00per pick | 66cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x84b9…7f7fbacked Yes | 34c | 50$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.8 | 357 | 42.9%153 W · 204 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -9%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa98a…a5a8backed No | 66c | 46.19$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.51 | 2,015 | 67.7%1,365 W · 650 L | +1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 68cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2510…b91bbacked Yes | 40c | 45.82$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.33 | 85 | 45.9%39 W · 46 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x56b3…3fa2backed No | 56c | 44.04$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.54 | 895 | 44.7%400 W · 495 L | +30.5wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x942d…278ebacked Yes | 39c | 44$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.33 | 434 | 30.9%134 W · 300 L | +10.2wins | +0.02per pick | 29cpaid | +78.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc53a…625fbacked No | 59c | 43.8$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.96 | 82 | 57.3%47 W · 35 L | -5.8wins | -0.07per pick | 64cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 41c | 43.73$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.73 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xae68…064abacked No | 60c | 41.71$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.68 | 2,555 | 63.8%1,631 W · 924 L | +38.4wins | +0.02per pick | 62cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9cfd…dfe7backed No | 53c | 41.7$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.45 | 999 | 61.8%617 W · 382 L | +19.0wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1798…1ce9backed Yes | 37c | 40.37$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2,428 | 44.9%1,091 W · 1,337 L | -31.5wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0f60…026abacked No | 62c | 40$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.2 | 999 | 63.5%634 W · 365 L | -3.0wins | 0.00per pick | 64cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x139e…a5debacked Yes | 38c | 39.55$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.99 | 249 | 51.4%128 W · 121 L | +5.5wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +23.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x75f3…fe29backed No | 58c | 38$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.01 | 521 | 55.3%288 W · 233 L | -5.9wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x635a…cccbbacked Yes | 48c | 37.96$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.3 | 91 | 50.5%46 W · 45 L | +7.3wins | +0.08per pick | 43cpaid | +12.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9686…1701backed Yes | 43c | 35.1$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 351 | 33.6%118 W · 233 L | +10.3wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe196…b2b8backed Yes | 39c | 35$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.5 | 154 | 54.5%84 W · 70 L | +5.5wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf0f0…640cbacked Yes | 34c | 34.18$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.62 | 68 | 27.9%19 W · 49 L | -2.0wins | -0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc67f…5115backed Yes | 41c | 33.48$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.6 | 108 | 50%54 W · 54 L | -6.0wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc1e5…c5dfbacked Yes | 38c | 33.01$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.6 | 47 | 29.8%14 W · 33 L | -2.8wins | -0.06per pick | 36cpaid | -18.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc80f…6147backed Yes | 35c | 32.52$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.33 | 525 | 33.7%177 W · 348 L | +22.8wins | +0.04per pick | 29cpaid | +32%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6f0b…8202backed Yes | 39c | 32.39$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.61 | 104 | 41.3%43 W · 61 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa7f4…1b2fbacked Yes | 41c | 30.96$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.84 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.13per pick | 33cpaid | -36.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 44c | 30$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.2 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 53c | 30$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.18 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x353b…e535backed Yes | 52c | 28.94$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 65 | 47.7%31 W · 34 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1e72…bd5dbacked No | 52c | 27.85$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.36 | 60 | 65%39 W · 21 L | +8.1wins | +0.14per pick | 51cpaid | +20.2%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x8971…809dbacked No | 63c | 26.67$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.87 | 1,959 | 46%901 W · 1,058 L | -51.3wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x11a9…4182backed No | 57c | 26.43$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.36 | 92 | 60.9%56 W · 36 L | -3.2wins | -0.04per pick | 64cpaid | -5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 80c | 25$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked No | 61c | 25$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.75 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x39b7…847cbacked Yes | 45c | 25$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.25 | 39 | 38.5%15 W · 24 L | -6.1wins | -0.16per pick | 54cpaid | -32.2%equal weight | 39-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xbd85…7a3dbacked No | 60c | 24.98$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.04 | 1,050 | 51.2%538 W · 512 L | -99.4wins | -0.09per pick | 61cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x5848…1e49backed No | 63c | 23.98$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.87 | 863 | 62.9%543 W · 320 L | -1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 63cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0a0c…a853backed No | 57c | 22.83$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.74 | 2,249 | 34.2%769 W · 1,480 L | +11.6wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xce05…ff90backed No | 51c | 22$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.78 | 240 | 53.3%128 W · 112 L | -9.5wins | -0.04per pick | 57cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa336…43f1backed Yes | 53c | 20.76$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 150 | 47.3%71 W · 79 L | +10.5wins | +0.07per pick | 40cpaid | +18.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x437b…1840backed No | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 39 | 59%23 W · 16 L | +2.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +24.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6fae…a4bebacked Yes | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 82 | 28%23 W · 59 L | -9.4wins | -0.11per pick | 39cpaid | -47.8%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x81ab…5f31backed Yes | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 289 | 46.4%134 W · 155 L | -14.6wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x88c7…febcbacked No | 67c | 18.71$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.2 | 30 | 56.7%17 W · 13 L | -2.0wins | -0.07per pick | 63cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7903…57f6backed No | 63c | 16$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.84 | 277 | 69%191 W · 86 L | +3.7wins | +0.01per pick | 68cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 13°C on May 13?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 11°C on May 13?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 12°C on May 13?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 14°C on May 13?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 15°C on May 13?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.