TailMyPicks
Market

Ligue 1 · resolved market

RC Strasbourg Alsace vs. FC Lorient: O/U 2.5

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Underof Over, Under
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Ligue 1every record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$58,644
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$58,466

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $58,644 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 53 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ligue 1 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Ligue 1
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x204f…5e14backed Under55c19,903$10,992 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8,910.351,91645.5%872 W · 1,044 L+13.7wins+0.01per pick45cpaid-7.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9fad…5a9fbacked Over52c13,988$7,234 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,233.7612839.8%51 W · 77 L-9.8wins-0.08per pick47cpaid-18.2%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x8e68…d99bbacked Over51c9,551$4,877 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,876.966454.7%35 W · 29 L+1.3wins+0.02per pick53cpaid+8.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x011c…31dfbacked Under49c7,899$3,871 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,028.841266.7%8 W · 4 L+2.0wins+0.16per pick50cpaid+31.9%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x4133…5e70backed Over39c5,925$2,323 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,323.4771140.2%286 W · 425 L-26.7wins-0.04per pick44cpaid-22.1%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x7b2c…af48backed Under48c4,901$2,341 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,559.5231049.4%153 W · 157 L+5.6wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+2.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x648c…f456backed Under49c3,873$1,898 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,975.472100%2 W · 0 L+1.0wins+0.50per pick50cpaid+98.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xec13…862bbacked Under48c3,333$1,600 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,733.16862.5%5 W · 3 L+1.0wins+0.12per pick50cpaid+33.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x21ce…6f34backed Over52c2,731$1,410 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,41030%0 W · 3 L-1.5wins-0.50per pick50cpaid-100%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x23fe…9788backed Under54c1,765$958 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$806.529348.4%45 W · 48 L-1.1wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-19.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x33a7…960dbacked Over7c1,490$112 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$111.565729.8%17 W · 40 L+1.7wins+0.03per pick27cpaid-8.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2652…2a1dbacked Over51c1,437$732 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$732.4135650.6%180 W · 176 L-6.8wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-9.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9731…9b35backed Over52c1,400$724 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$723.823151.5%119 W · 112 L+10.6wins+0.05per pick47cpaid+15.8%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Over53c1,254$664 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$664.3419055.8%106 W · 84 L+2.6wins+0.01per pick54cpaid+0.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xfaa5…7cc9backed Over52c1,223$636 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$635.96560%3 W · 2 L+0.3wins+0.07per pick53cpaid+3.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x08ce…f301backed Over17c1,170$199 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$198.591735.3%6 W · 11 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick34cpaid-3.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1677…1126backed Over51c1,098$556 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$555.5512050.8%61 W · 59 L+3.3wins+0.03per pick48cpaid+9.7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x44a1…bd21backed Under51c1,000$510 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4901625%4 W · 12 L-0.2wins-0.02per pick27cpaid-56.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb891…969bbacked Over39c865.29$337 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$337.466836.8%25 W · 43 L-4.6wins-0.07per pick44cpaid-14.7%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x8ade…e692backed Over52c374.1$196 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$195.6430%0 W · 3 L-1.4wins-0.46per pick46cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x908a…ad16backed Over52c364.68$189 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$188.5733938.1%129 W · 210 L-6.2wins-0.02per pick40cpaid-17.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6d01…0ab1backed Under48c300$144 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1567146.5%33 W · 38 L+5.3wins+0.07per pick39cpaid+14.8%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x4c9b…e74abacked Over52c288.46$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1506648.5%32 W · 34 L+2.6wins+0.04per pick45cpaid+6.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xab0f…bde4backed Over39c256.41$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10030%0 W · 3 L-1.1wins-0.37per pick37cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xb9fc…da76backed Over51c250$128 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$127.59355.9%52 W · 41 L+1.8wins+0.02per pick54cpaid+6.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xff63…5aa1backed Under49c244.9$120 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$124.9475%3 W · 1 L+1.0wins+0.25per pick50cpaid+54.9%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x4a8d…31eabacked Over52c213.46$111 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11123250.9%118 W · 114 L+1.7wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+2.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xfcb5…9bf1backed Over53c200$106 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10627244.9%122 W · 150 L+4.4wins+0.02per pick43cpaid+0.2%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xdb12…f057backed Over51c172$88 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$87.7210948.6%53 W · 56 L-2.4wins-0.02per pick51cpaid-1.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x58c8…0300backed Under62c100.92$63 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$37.9512343.9%54 W · 69 L-1.9wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-20.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe864…ce58backed Under51c100$51 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$49977.8%7 W · 2 L+2.5wins+0.27per pick51cpaid+55.9%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x04b3…ad8dbacked Over50c100$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$504035%14 W · 26 L-5.0wins-0.12per pick47cpaid-29.6%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x3459…808abacked Over13c100$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$133030%9 W · 21 L+0.5wins+0.02per pick28cpaid+4.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9fbd…3d15backed Over50c85.83$43 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42.921811.1%2 W · 16 L-4.8wins-0.27per pick38cpaid-65.6%equal weight38-0.11 edge/pick
0xe9ea…810abacked Under51c78$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$38.224259.5%25 W · 17 L+3.5wins+0.08per pick51cpaid+21.8%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xaa5f…3de3backed Under76c75$57 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.15per pick48cpaid-56.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4bdf…9652backed Under48c73$35 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$37.962475%18 W · 6 L+3.3wins+0.14per pick61cpaid+24.5%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xc049…48abbacked Over30c66.67$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$202642.3%11 W · 15 L+1.3wins+0.05per pick37cpaid-1.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x41ed…1da9backed Over53c60$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.810952.3%57 W · 52 L+2.2wins+0.02per pick50cpaid+5.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x90f9…e894backed Over49c50$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.57057.1%40 W · 30 L+4.3wins+0.06per pick51cpaid+14.9%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x0da9…9d56backed Over52c48.08$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25540%2 W · 3 L-1.1wins-0.22per pick62cpaid-35.1%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x2005…75eabacked Under79c47.62$38 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$101,41540.8%577 W · 838 L+13.5wins+0.01per pick40cpaid-14.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa00f…8e56backed Over53c45$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.72343.5%10 W · 13 L-1.0wins-0.04per pick48cpaid-12.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x51bd…bc56backed Over24c42$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.08475%3 W · 1 L+1.1wins+0.27per pick48cpaid+42.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x55be…a73abacked Under49c40.82$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20.82771.4%5 W · 2 L+0.6wins+0.09per pick63cpaid+14.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4a4b…bbcabacked Over52c38.46$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2024051.7%124 W · 116 L+1.5wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+3.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x65b5…a9f7backed Over49c33$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.176555.4%36 W · 29 L+2.6wins+0.04per pick51cpaid+10.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5af1…f988backed Over49c33$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.176656.1%37 W · 29 L+3.5wins+0.05per pick51cpaid+12.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x13fa…3facbacked Under47c29.79$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.7917329.5%51 W · 122 L+2.7wins+0.02per pick28cpaid+15.8%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x9014…db4abacked Over49c27.69$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.576053.3%32 W · 28 L+1.2wins+0.02per pick51cpaid+3.2%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xd17e…0868backed Under54c21.6$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.01742.9%3 W · 4 L-0.7wins-0.11per pick53cpaid-32.1%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x8b21…41fabacked Over52c20$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.47529.3%22 W · 53 L-14.8wins-0.20per pick49cpaid-48.2%equal weight34-0.15 edge/pick
0xc210…39fcbacked Over50c20$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$103951.3%20 W · 19 L+1.3wins+0.03per pick48cpaid+11.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ligue 1 and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.