Valorant · resolved market
Map Handicap: NRG (-1.5) vs 100 Thieves (+1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x8efdf68578a8ce5f7b4a858c832cffeac231df881a2f3ba21532076308a58dac
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- 100 Thievesof NRG, 100 Thieves
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Valorantevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $10,700
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $15,669
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $10,700 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 24 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Valorant is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Valorant | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xcf60…a6f5backed 100 Thieves | 68c | 5,000$3,416 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,584.15 | 521 | 55.5%289 W · 232 L | -11.1wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd055…28d0backed NRG | 31c | 3,252$1,008 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,008.01 | 41 | 43.9%18 W · 23 L | +2.1wins | +0.05per pick | 39cpaid | +3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1b77…6ba1backed NRG | 33c | 500$165 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$165 | 36 | 33.3%12 W · 24 L | -2.9wins | -0.08per pick | 41cpaid | -33.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9c4b…8a81backed 100 Thieves | 61c | 379.81$232 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$148.13 | 621 | 56.4%350 W · 271 L | +13.0wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5874…64c3backed NRG | 39c | 320.51$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x133a…504abacked NRG | 33c | 256.22$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84 | 155 | 35.5%55 W · 100 L | -5.4wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3cad…92f0backed NRG | 33c | 253$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83 | 139 | 33.1%46 W · 93 L | -7.2wins | -0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x31e7…fe2abacked NRG | 33c | 243.32$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 106 | 33%35 W · 71 L | -6.3wins | -0.06per pick | 39cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfb77…1c78backed NRG | 31c | 112.9$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 112 | 37.5%42 W · 70 L | -2.6wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8d19…e27cbacked NRG | 31c | 109.65$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.99 | 24 | 45.8%11 W · 13 L | -1.9wins | -0.08per pick | 54cpaid | -27.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc65c…ea39backed 100 Thieves | 60c | 89.31$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.46 | 343 | 56.9%195 W · 148 L | +23.0wins | +0.07per pick | 50cpaid | +16%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbf04…ad65backed NRG | 39c | 88.57$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.93 | 285 | 41.1%117 W · 168 L | -26.4wins | -0.09per pick | 50cpaid | -18.7%equal weight | 41-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x8526…72aabacked NRG | 31c | 87.1$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 60 | 38.3%23 W · 37 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0fd9…039bbacked NRG | 35c | 85.71$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | +2.3wins | +0.19per pick | 39cpaid | +44.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3a1b…dcf3backed NRG | 38c | 65.79$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 63 | 52.4%33 W · 30 L | +3.2wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x65b7…3798backed NRG | 39c | 40$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.6 | 189 | 52.4%99 W · 90 L | +5.1wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2e88…7d0cbacked NRG | 38c | 30$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.4 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.19per pick | 47cpaid | +28.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd533…d6a1backed NRG | 39c | 27$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.53 | 438 | 43.6%191 W · 247 L | +8.4wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x945a…a48cbacked NRG | 39c | 26$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.14 | 183 | 3.3%6 W · 177 L | -73.1wins | -0.40per pick | 43cpaid | -93.1%equal weight | 11-0.35 edge/pick |
| 0xc07e…9fc3backed NRG | 40c | 25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 14 | 64.3%9 W · 5 L | +1.7wins | +0.12per pick | 52cpaid | +21.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x888d…c45dbacked NRG | 40c | 25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 87 | 44.8%39 W · 48 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1715…a049backed 100 Thieves | 61c | 23.07$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9 | 33 | 33.3%11 W · 22 L | -7.1wins | -0.21per pick | 55cpaid | -46.7%equal weight | 36-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x4358…3e76backed 100 Thieves | 61c | 17.72$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.91 | 39 | 59%23 W · 16 L | +2.8wins | +0.07per pick | 52cpaid | +13.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4548…e4b5backed 100 Thieves | 61c | 16.57$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.46 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -2.2wins | -0.32per pick | 46cpaid | -76.6%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Valorant and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Map Handicap: NRG (-1.5) vs 100 Thieves (+1.5)this page
- Games Total: O/U 3.5Over won
- Map 1 Rounds Handicap: 100 Thieves (-5.5) vs NRG (+5.5)100 Thieves won
- Map 3 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5Under won
- Valorant: 100 Thieves vs NRG (BO5) - Esports World Cup Playoffs100 Thieves won
- Valorant: 100 Thieves vs NRG - Map 1 Winner100 Thieves won
- Valorant: 100 Thieves vs NRG - Map 2 Winner100 Thieves won
- Valorant: 100 Thieves vs NRG - Map 3 WinnerNRG won
- Valorant: 100 Thieves vs NRG - Map 4 Winner100 Thieves won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.