Lol · resolved market
Game Handicap: RED (-1.5) vs paiN Gaming (+1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x8f2d78f049bb5faaeacd395b7565c8340247e5c6cb2afd15b34f75d22a26920a
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- RED Canidsof RED Canids, paiN Gaming
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Lolevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $22,673
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $30,846
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $22,673 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 37 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Lol is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Lol | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x8c0b…7aa5backed paiN Gaming | 43c | 11,068$4,724 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,724.44 | 1,635 | 40.2%657 W · 978 L | +48.7wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe308…25cdbacked RED Canids | 58c | 6,723$3,899 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,823.56 | 664 | 37.2%247 W · 417 L | -12.8wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x48b8…4b69backed RED Canids | 56c | 2,693$1,517 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,175.58 | 106 | 48.1%51 W · 55 L | -2.1wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbde6…e8b5backed RED Canids | 56c | 1,412$791 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$621.16 | 300 | 50.3%151 W · 149 L | +6.5wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf163…ca34backed paiN Gaming | 43c | 1,373$596 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$595.77 | 1,492 | 48.4%722 W · 770 L | +47.5wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x53ab…65aabacked paiN Gaming | 43c | 777$334 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$334.11 | 1,611 | 48.4%780 W · 831 L | +24.7wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1e71…eba7backed RED Canids | 56c | 700$392 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$308 | 123 | 49.6%61 W · 62 L | +3.7wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd3e7…bf64backed RED Canids | 57c | 681$388 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$292.83 | 1,182 | 44.8%530 W · 652 L | +11.6wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7253…0558backed RED Canids | 56c | 347.71$195 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$152.99 | 182 | 36.8%67 W · 115 L | -6.0wins | -0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe1f1…3a05backed paiN Gaming | 43c | 230$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.9 | 153 | 32%49 W · 104 L | -7.2wins | -0.05per pick | 37cpaid | -24.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2c50…89b6backed RED Canids | 60c | 208.07$124 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.16 | 22 | 63.6%14 W · 8 L | +2.7wins | +0.12per pick | 52cpaid | +29.8%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x00a1…df06backed RED Canids | 64c | 195.34$125 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.32 | 159 | 44%70 W · 89 L | -7.0wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0e1b…ecafbacked paiN Gaming | 36c | 129.24$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.53 | 820 | 44%361 W · 459 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1316…48a4backed paiN Gaming | 43c | 112.3$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.29 | 474 | 55.3%262 W · 212 L | -10.6wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbe59…0d2ebacked paiN Gaming | 42c | 107.84$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.29 | 605 | 38.8%235 W · 370 L | -1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x838a…0815backed RED Canids | 57c | 103.82$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.76 | 30 | 40%12 W · 18 L | -3.3wins | -0.11per pick | 51cpaid | -16.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1de9…9499backed RED Canids | 58c | 97.48$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.94 | 230 | 57.8%133 W · 97 L | +8.4wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc22a…8259backed RED Canids | 55c | 87.88$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.22 | 383 | 44.6%171 W · 212 L | +2.6wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc4e9…a838backed RED Canids | 56c | 69.54$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.6 | 80 | 51.3%41 W · 39 L | +3.0wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed paiN Gaming | 45c | 68.93$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.2 | 608 | 49.5%301 W · 307 L | -5.3wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…ced8backed RED Canids | 58c | 67.23$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.24 | 323 | 71.2%230 W · 93 L | +14.9wins | +0.05per pick | 67cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x80d8…b703backed paiN Gaming | 22c | 64.1$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.1 | 1,599 | 46.8%748 W · 851 L | -48.1wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x76bb…4548backed RED Canids | 78c | 63.26$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.92 | 349 | 60.7%212 W · 137 L | +3.4wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x089b…c619backed paiN Gaming | 45c | 53.36$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.18 | 236 | 43.6%103 W · 133 L | +7.6wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +9.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd18c…bae2backed RED Canids | 57c | 42.73$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.37 | 44 | 50%22 W · 22 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +15.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6912…2aabbacked RED Canids | 57c | 42.73$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.37 | 45 | 57.8%26 W · 19 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa0c5…4291backed paiN Gaming | 43c | 40$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.2 | 285 | 59.6%170 W · 115 L | +11.0wins | +0.04per pick | 56cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xea89…476abacked RED Canids | 58c | 38.66$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.24 | 187 | 56.7%106 W · 81 L | +5.2wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8e8c…65ddbacked RED Canids | 52c | 36.06$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.31 | 704 | 56.4%397 W · 307 L | +39.3wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +11.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5c5f…8eadbacked RED Canids | 56c | 31.29$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.77 | 128 | 45.3%58 W · 70 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xca7c…e994backed paiN Gaming | 43c | 30.3$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.03 | 1,399 | 44.9%628 W · 771 L | -14.9wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9bd9…084fbacked paiN Gaming | 36c | 30$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.8 | 416 | 51.2%213 W · 203 L | -1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1cc0…6139backed RED Canids | 55c | 28.93$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.02 | 355 | 46.8%166 W · 189 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa07d…a037backed paiN Gaming | 36c | 27.78$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1,831 | 17.1%313 W · 1,518 L | -236.0wins | -0.13per pick | 30cpaid | -46%equal weight | 36-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x10ac…0e0bbacked RED Canids | 56c | 25.75$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.33 | 178 | 40.4%72 W · 106 L | -8.3wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xee33…1822backed RED Canids | 56c | 24.76$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.89 | 23 | 60.9%14 W · 9 L | +0.6wins | +0.03per pick | 58cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x384d…d538backed RED Canids | 70c | 15.58$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.67 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | +0.6wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +23.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Lol and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Game Handicap: RED (-1.5) vs paiN Gaming (+1.5)this page
- Games Total: O/U 2.5Under won
- LoL: RED Canids vs paiN Gaming (BO3) - CBLOL Regular SeasonRED Canids won
- LoL: RED Canids vs paiN Gaming - Game 1 WinnerRED Canids won
- LoL: RED Canids vs paiN Gaming - Game 2 WinnerRED Canids won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.