MLB · resolved market
Detroit Tigers vs. Cincinnati Reds: O/U 9.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x8f3ac2d7f0733653cca553dec6b9bb5ea96a250b2a152ac26048a8af6877315e
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $10,618
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $11,034
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $10,618 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 29 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x78b0…9f1abacked Over | 48c | 2,893$1,397 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,496.21 | 390 | 47.4%185 W · 205 L | -11.5wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6f7b…440fbacked Under | 2c | 1,665$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.4 | 39 | 5.1%2 W · 37 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 3cpaid | +33.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9c76…c926backed Under | 51c | 1,434$731 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$731.35 | 1,292 | 50.2%648 W · 644 L | +18.2wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9495…9a27backed Under | 50c | 1,239$617 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$616.89 | 2,293 | 48.1%1,103 W · 1,190 L | -24.0wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Over | 49c | 1,237$605 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$632.36 | 2,389 | 43.4%1,037 W · 1,352 L | -25.4wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x09af…9728backed Over | 47c | 1,031$484 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$547.02 | 891 | 53.5%477 W · 414 L | +24.2wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xadfb…c2efbacked Under | 53c | 1,000$530 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$530 | 2,407 | 48.5%1,167 W · 1,240 L | -62.3wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x551c…fe91backed Under | 49c | 740.11$361 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$360.57 | 1,218 | 55.6%677 W · 541 L | +94.9wins | +0.08per pick | 48cpaid | +13.4%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x5028…91c5backed Under | 15c | 704.99$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106.1 | 199 | 34.2%68 W · 131 L | -9.1wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6628…05aebacked Under | 55c | 535.15$292 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$291.82 | 232 | 44%102 W · 130 L | +1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x255a…3435backed Under | 23c | 403.46$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.8 | 1,522 | 34.7%528 W · 994 L | +27.1wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f5…937fbacked Over | 74c | 385.98$285 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100.62 | 2,545 | 45.9%1,168 W · 1,377 L | -73.6wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Under | 51c | 379.85$194 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$193.73 | 9,728 | 46.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L | +32.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2f26…0d8fbacked Under | 40c | 295.21$117 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$117.03 | 1,843 | 43.6%804 W · 1,039 L | -15.8wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5628…abbcbacked Under | 53c | 277.72$148 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$148.26 | 1,435 | 50%717 W · 718 L | -15.8wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x32ed…f960backed Over | 63c | 239.77$151 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.15 | 6,116 | 55.3%3,385 W · 2,731 L | +344.6wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3085…7568backed Under | 13c | 232$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.37 | 52 | 7.7%4 W · 48 L | -10.3wins | -0.20per pick | 28cpaid | -81.9%equal weight | 35-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x068c…582ebacked Over | 48c | 203.05$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$106.19 | 384 | 55.2%212 W · 172 L | +9.9wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xabce…2f87backed Over | 70c | 200$140 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60 | 89 | 47.2%42 W · 47 L | -6.5wins | -0.07per pick | 54cpaid | -18%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x205b…d66abacked Over | 76c | 197.08$149 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.99 | 20 | 90%18 W · 2 L | +4.9wins | +0.24per pick | 66cpaid | +37.7%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Under | 30c | 191.6$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.48 | 1,911 | 53.1%1,014 W · 897 L | +43.0wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0b84…6accbacked Over | 52c | 179.8$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.51 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.7wins | +0.12per pick | 38cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5821…7c51backed Over | 65c | 137.32$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.41 | 2,995 | 50.8%1,521 W · 1,474 L | -36.0wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8a3d…316cbacked Over | 46c | 53.22$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.74 | 722 | 47.6%344 W · 378 L | -12.4wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6d49…e00abacked Over | 54c | 50.05$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.04 | 667 | 49.3%329 W · 338 L | -22.1wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x84cf…2f63backed Over | 47c | 49.75$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.37 | 4,553 | 49.2%2,238 W · 2,315 L | -9.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x75dc…4f82backed Over | 55c | 41.4$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.63 | 304 | 54.3%165 W · 139 L | +6.9wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x70fc…ab12backed Over | 65c | 29.99$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.53 | 1,367 | 54.3%742 W · 625 L | +16.5wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x03cd…f368backed Under | 73c | 17.97$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.12 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.20per pick | 70cpaid | -21.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 11 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Detroit Tigers vs. Cincinnati Reds: O/U 9.5this page
- Detroit Tigers vs. Cincinnati RedsCincinnati Reds won
- Detroit Tigers vs. Cincinnati Reds: O/U 10.5Over won
- Detroit Tigers vs. Cincinnati Reds: O/U 11.5Over won
- Detroit Tigers vs. Cincinnati Reds: O/U 12.5Over won
- Detroit Tigers vs. Cincinnati Reds: O/U 8.5Over won
- Spread: Cincinnati Reds (-1.5)Detroit Tigers won
- Spread: Detroit Tigers (-1.5)Cincinnati Reds won
- Spread: Detroit Tigers (-3.5)Cincinnati Reds won
- Spread: Detroit Tigers (-4.5)Cincinnati Reds won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Detroit Tigers vs. Cincinnati RedsNo won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.