MLB · resolved market
Spread: Detroit Tigers (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x73f955c9bb0df653197a28cd170082a48b9033ee8a9730cc4c387793b49a9b30
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Cincinnati Redsof Detroit Tigers, Cincinnati Reds
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $8,251
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $8,271
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $8,251 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 63 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd3df…82fabacked Detroit Tigers | 34c | 1,190$406 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$406.26 | 488 | 50.2%245 W · 243 L | +5.9wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xff34…694bbacked Cincinnati Reds | 65c | 915.37$599 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$315.99 | 5,234 | 56.8%2,971 W · 2,263 L | +130.4wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0520…3efdbacked Detroit Tigers | 71c | 592.89$424 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$423.52 | 532 | 61.8%329 W · 203 L | +20.6wins | +0.04per pick | 58cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x84cf…2f63backed Detroit Tigers | 42c | 454.04$191 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$190.65 | 4,553 | 49.2%2,238 W · 2,315 L | -9.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2fb5…b009backed Cincinnati Reds | 59c | 426.94$252 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$175.37 | 64 | 45.3%29 W · 35 L | +2.6wins | +0.04per pick | 41cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9495…9a27backed Detroit Tigers | 51c | 344.14$177 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$177.18 | 2,293 | 48.1%1,103 W · 1,190 L | -24.0wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Cincinnati Reds | 80c | 340.83$273 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.2 | 4,381 | 44.9%1,966 W · 2,415 L | +77.8wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x255a…3435backed Detroit Tigers | 16c | 319.62$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.14 | 1,522 | 34.7%528 W · 994 L | +27.1wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x62c0…db73backed Cincinnati Reds | 61c | 312.59$191 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$121.91 | 32 | 56.3%18 W · 14 L | -2.1wins | -0.06per pick | 63cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd2d1…aa33backed Cincinnati Reds | 37c | 300$111 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$189 | 26 | 53.8%14 W · 12 L | +4.3wins | +0.17per pick | 37cpaid | +36.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Detroit Tigers | 41c | 300$123 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$123 | 6,899 | 50.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L | -7.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd9ea…b781backed Cincinnati Reds | 57c | 289.46$165 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$124.47 | 568 | 51.4%292 W · 276 L | +3.7wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x32ed…f960backed Cincinnati Reds | 50c | 242.25$122 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$120.46 | 6,116 | 55.3%3,385 W · 2,731 L | +344.6wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0764…41d1backed Cincinnati Reds | 40c | 240.93$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$144.56 | 38 | 65.8%25 W · 13 L | +2.5wins | +0.07per pick | 59cpaid | +18.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x424e…263bbacked Cincinnati Reds | 58c | 237.29$138 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$99.66 | 1,769 | 51.6%912 W · 857 L | +16.9wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd81f…6b75backed Detroit Tigers | 42c | 207.93$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.63 | 1,010 | 48.1%486 W · 524 L | -13.2wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Detroit Tigers | 59c | 188.2$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110.17 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f5…937fbacked Cincinnati Reds | 74c | 187.6$139 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.3 | 2,545 | 45.9%1,168 W · 1,377 L | -73.6wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Cincinnati Reds | 56c | 179.91$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.93 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3f97…4059backed Detroit Tigers | 42c | 162.41$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.21 | 101 | 57.4%58 W · 43 L | +5.7wins | +0.06per pick | 52cpaid | +13.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked Cincinnati Reds | 23c | 148.79$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$114.57 | 1,723 | 50.3%867 W · 856 L | +55.0wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x83a3…6292backed Cincinnati Reds | 58c | 134.46$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.47 | 665 | 51.1%340 W · 325 L | -17.0wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x21f3…35e3backed Detroit Tigers | 41c | 128.71$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.77 | 1,572 | 48.3%759 W · 813 L | -6.4wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Detroit Tigers | 39c | 123$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.97 | 2,389 | 43.4%1,037 W · 1,352 L | -25.4wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5821…7c51backed Cincinnati Reds | 49c | 112.9$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.64 | 2,995 | 50.8%1,521 W · 1,474 L | -36.0wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbe67…dd7ebacked Detroit Tigers | 21c | 111.69$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.87 | 127 | 42.5%54 W · 73 L | -4.6wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -11%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5028…91c5backed Detroit Tigers | 61c | 109$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.49 | 199 | 34.2%68 W · 131 L | -9.1wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2baf…8023backed Cincinnati Reds | 57c | 105$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.15 | 85 | 50.6%43 W · 42 L | -1.8wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1ce1…2f49backed Detroit Tigers | 38c | 104.13$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.43 | 41 | 36.6%15 W · 26 L | -2.3wins | -0.06per pick | 42cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdbca…ca8dbacked Cincinnati Reds | 58c | 100.84$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.35 | 432 | 47%203 W · 229 L | -19.2wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x43d7…1c75backed Cincinnati Reds | 58c | 100$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42 | 217 | 48.4%105 W · 112 L | -3.2wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5628…abbcbacked Cincinnati Reds | 58c | 96.64$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.97 | 1,435 | 50%717 W · 718 L | -15.8wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xead1…c76abacked Detroit Tigers | 43c | 87.56$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.65 | 1,029 | 51.2%527 W · 502 L | -6.2wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa07d…a037backed Detroit Tigers | 27c | 72.96$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 841 | 22.7%191 W · 650 L | -81.4wins | -0.10per pick | 32cpaid | -29.1%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x1a59…a57ebacked Cincinnati Reds | 38c | 72$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45 | 677 | 42.2%286 W · 391 L | -36.7wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -18%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb81e…8ab9backed Cincinnati Reds | 59c | 68.28$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.99 | 478 | 48.5%232 W · 246 L | -15.3wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Cincinnati Reds | 71c | 67.79$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.66 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Detroit Tigers | 37c | 66.35$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.3 | 9,728 | 46.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L | +32.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc921…d6f3backed Detroit Tigers | 44c | 65.57$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.85 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.22per pick | 47cpaid | -51%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9825…9ffcbacked Cincinnati Reds | 40c | 60.25$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.15 | 184 | 44%81 W · 103 L | -2.2wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1c39…442dbacked Detroit Tigers | 28c | 58.72$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.35 | 235 | 22.6%53 W · 182 L | -20.7wins | -0.09per pick | 31cpaid | -30.8%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xbbe2…6158backed Cincinnati Reds | 59c | 57.86$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.72 | 466 | 59.7%278 W · 188 L | +1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | +2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbd3a…91fdbacked Cincinnati Reds | 74c | 56.8$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.77 | 54 | 50%27 W · 27 L | -2.7wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb39b…14c9backed Detroit Tigers | 38c | 53$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.14 | 40 | 45%18 W · 22 L | +1.7wins | +0.04per pick | 41cpaid | +19.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1e3b…e232backed Cincinnati Reds | 57c | 50$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.5 | 2,947 | 51.9%1,529 W · 1,418 L | -34.0wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0905…e5c0backed Detroit Tigers | 42c | 49.99$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 1,661 | 43.5%722 W · 939 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4259…77c1backed Cincinnati Reds | 56c | 49.22$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.66 | 2,243 | 57.6%1,293 W · 950 L | +37.1wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x96c1…2c59backed Detroit Tigers | 43c | 48.29$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.76 | 1,498 | 45.3%678 W · 820 L | -8.7wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d49…e00abacked Detroit Tigers | 66c | 45.45$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 667 | 49.3%329 W · 338 L | -22.1wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9f28…d173backed Cincinnati Reds | 72c | 43.26$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.11 | 191 | 57.6%110 W · 81 L | -6.8wins | -0.04per pick | 61cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x93ac…2761backed Cincinnati Reds | 56c | 39.38$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.33 | 2,583 | 61.4%1,587 W · 996 L | +70.9wins | +0.03per pick | 59cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8956…755fbacked Cincinnati Reds | 58c | 38.99$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.38 | 216 | 56%121 W · 95 L | +2.9wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc546…058ebacked Detroit Tigers | 48c | 38.24$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.29 | 5,127 | 54.7%2,805 W · 2,322 L | +232.0wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3085…7568backed Detroit Tigers | 41c | 36.9$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.31 | 52 | 7.7%4 W · 48 L | -10.3wins | -0.20per pick | 28cpaid | -81.9%equal weight | 35-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x1df6…cba0backed Cincinnati Reds | 56c | 35.25$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.44 | 1,445 | 50.3%727 W · 718 L | -27.6wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x50fd…ee77backed Cincinnati Reds | 58c | 33.61$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.12 | 330 | 51.8%171 W · 159 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x07c9…9f5bbacked Cincinnati Reds | 58c | 26.89$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.29 | 316 | 50.6%160 W · 156 L | -4.6wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x29a5…a3c4backed Detroit Tigers | 67c | 26.51$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.66 | 290 | 47.6%138 W · 152 L | -11.4wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3092…c9a8backed Detroit Tigers | 60c | 24.66$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.8 | 75 | 56%42 W · 33 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe697…708fbacked Detroit Tigers | 44c | 24.33$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.71 | 229 | 49.8%114 W · 115 L | -8.7wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x973e…22ebbacked Cincinnati Reds | 59c | 23.15$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.49 | 899 | 50.6%455 W · 444 L | -24.6wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf9ad…5097backed Cincinnati Reds | 45c | 22.24$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.23 | 83 | 47%39 W · 44 L | +4.0wins | +0.05per pick | 42cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x32eb…f531backed Cincinnati Reds | 56c | 19.69$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.66 | 95 | 62.1%59 W · 36 L | +4.1wins | +0.04per pick | 58cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 11 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Detroit Tigers (-1.5)this page
- Detroit Tigers vs. Cincinnati RedsCincinnati Reds won
- Detroit Tigers vs. Cincinnati Reds: O/U 10.5Over won
- Detroit Tigers vs. Cincinnati Reds: O/U 11.5Over won
- Detroit Tigers vs. Cincinnati Reds: O/U 12.5Over won
- Detroit Tigers vs. Cincinnati Reds: O/U 8.5Over won
- Detroit Tigers vs. Cincinnati Reds: O/U 9.5Over won
- Spread: Cincinnati Reds (-1.5)Detroit Tigers won
- Spread: Detroit Tigers (-3.5)Cincinnati Reds won
- Spread: Detroit Tigers (-4.5)Cincinnati Reds won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Detroit Tigers vs. Cincinnati RedsNo won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.