TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

MLB · resolved market

Detroit Tigers vs. Cincinnati Reds: O/U 8.5

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Overof Over, Under
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$124,574
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$116,040

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $124,574 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 131 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in MLB
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x16bb…8492backed Over52c58,291$30,298 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27,993.286548.7%421 W · 444 L-8.9wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-1.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfa5f…6bfebacked Under48c29,722$14,266 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14,266.327550.7%38 W · 37 L-0.5wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-1.8%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x9cb9…32f2backed Under48c24,767$11,888 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11,888.1616347.9%78 W · 85 L+1.9wins+0.01per pick47cpaid+2.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6d3c…d294backed Under43c7,852$3,409 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,408.65,40150.5%2,726 W · 2,675 L+17.6wins0.00per pick50cpaid+0.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x84cf…2f63backed Over59c6,370$3,785 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,584.874,55349.2%2,238 W · 2,315 L-9.6wins0.00per pick49cpaid-2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x39d3…9ef0backed Under40c5,866$2,346 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,346.3823538.3%90 W · 145 L-8.5wins-0.04per pick42cpaid-11.2%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x6027…4320backed Under40c3,462$1,385 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,384.6684049.4%415 W · 425 L+8.2wins+0.01per pick48cpaid-1.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Under39c3,169$1,244 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,243.9112,24746.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L-68.6wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-9.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe401…7b88backed Under41c3,049$1,241 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,240.979,72846.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L+32.8wins0.00per pick46cpaid-8.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd3df…82fabacked Under38c3,040$1,147 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,147.1348850.2%245 W · 243 L+5.9wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-6.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd696…8a49backed Under40c2,947$1,179 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,178.6432152%167 W · 154 L+7.5wins+0.02per pick50cpaid+5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4658…4131backed Under40c2,500$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,00049158.9%289 W · 202 L+30.8wins+0.06per pick53cpaid+12.8%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x4488…e319backed Over55c2,285$1,257 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,028.251,06348.2%512 W · 551 L-11.5wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-2.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9c57…40febacked Under45c2,088$934 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$934.2221550.2%108 W · 107 L-6.2wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-4.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x696a…e23abacked Under43c1,855$798 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$797.756749.3%33 W · 34 L-1.4wins-0.02per pick51cpaid-10.8%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x5f08…5afbbacked Under44c1,800$792 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$792.0114340.6%58 W · 85 L-6.6wins-0.05per pick45cpaid-8.7%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x5e30…acbfbacked Under40c1,739$696 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$695.631,52148.6%739 W · 782 L-5.3wins0.00per pick49cpaid+0.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9c76…c926backed Under40c1,510$605 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$604.851,29250.2%648 W · 644 L+18.2wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+3.5%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xc291…5d74backed Under41c1,232$501 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$501.072,29649.7%1,141 W · 1,155 L+37.8wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+3.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x840d…3708backed Under42c1,174$493 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$493.18757.1%4 W · 3 L+1.9wins+0.27per pick30cpaid+267.5%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x2071…e579backed Under43c1,139$488 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$487.9910%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.43per pick43cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x32ed…f960backed Over55c1,023$563 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$460.216,11655.3%3,385 W · 2,731 L+344.6wins+0.06per pick50cpaid+8.6%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x49f2…d7b4backed Under41c1,000$410 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4105143.1%22 W · 29 L-3.6wins-0.07per pick50cpaid-13.5%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xa676…a4c5backed Under26c993.35$258 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$258.276936.2%25 W · 44 L+1.0wins+0.01per pick35cpaid+41.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x691a…d113backed Under47c968.2$455 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$455.0528049.6%139 W · 141 L+8.9wins+0.03per pick46cpaid+8.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6814…a9e7backed Over60c963.11$580 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$383.332,38943.4%1,037 W · 1,352 L-25.4wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-11.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7760…21f0backed Over53c945.55$501 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$444.412,36947.4%1,122 W · 1,247 L-11.6wins0.00per pick48cpaid-0.9%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xadfb…c2efbacked Over58c872.24$506 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$366.342,40748.5%1,167 W · 1,240 L-62.3wins-0.03per pick51cpaid-4.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xdb83…1e50backed Under40c697.09$279 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$279.224,47848.8%2,186 W · 2,292 L-47.7wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-4.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc249…8a61backed Under41c604.49$245 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$244.8461352.5%322 W · 291 L+29.6wins+0.05per pick48cpaid+12.3%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xd81f…6b75backed Over51c596.34$302 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$294.41,01048.1%486 W · 524 L-13.2wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-2.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xee0b…e6d4backed Under41c589.37$242 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$241.641040%4 W · 6 L-0.6wins-0.06per pick46cpaid-13.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x992b…5053backed Under51c570.94$291 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$291.1822753.3%121 W · 106 L+2.1wins+0.01per pick52cpaid+0.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6b3a…2841backed Under47c511.19$240 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$239.9349450%247 W · 247 L+9.2wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+5.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5628…abbcbacked Under46c500$232 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$231.791,43550%717 W · 718 L-15.8wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-1.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2b46…684dbacked Over70c491.13$344 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$147.4419143.5%83 W · 108 L-4.4wins-0.02per pick46cpaid-5.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf02f…1ed8backed Under40c419.61$168 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$168.11,34547.7%642 W · 703 L+10.2wins+0.01per pick47cpaid+0.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5268…135dbacked Under46c415.71$191 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$190.9111,35752.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L+209.9wins+0.02per pick51cpaid-0.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x424e…263bbacked Under45c397.63$178 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$177.51,76951.6%912 W · 857 L+16.9wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+2.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x949e…20afbacked Under29c390.86$111 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$111.4422831.6%72 W · 156 L-0.4wins0.00per pick32cpaid+9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5028…91c5backed Under43c376.81$162 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$162.2919934.2%68 W · 131 L-9.1wins-0.05per pick39cpaid-9.8%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x44f0…432cbacked Under45c322.78$145 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$145.2541051.7%212 W · 198 L+14.8wins+0.04per pick48cpaid+7.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xd3e7…bf64backed Under43c250$107 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10770744.7%316 W · 391 L-22.5wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-6.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x3982…2befbacked Under40c248.24$99 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$99.341847.6%199 W · 219 L+0.4wins0.00per pick48cpaid-5.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2f26…0d8fbacked Under19c247.18$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48.021,84343.6%804 W · 1,039 L-15.8wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-7.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xedf7…8f79backed Under41c243.91$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10039948.1%192 W · 207 L-1.7wins0.00per pick49cpaid-2.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x67ac…44b4backed Under40c241$96 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$96.410%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.40per pick40cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9cf7…a506backed Over49c230.8$113 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$117.97366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.8wins+0.25per pick41cpaid+14.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa804…bdc1backed Under41c227.63$93 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$93.048446.4%39 W · 45 L-1.8wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-7.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x435d…c52abacked Under50c214.84$107 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$107.4267444.1%297 W · 377 L+27.8wins+0.04per pick40cpaid+12.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xa9f5…937fbacked Under23c214.76$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50.412,54545.9%1,168 W · 1,377 L-73.6wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-14.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5016…ada1backed Under47c213$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100.1135650.6%180 W · 176 L-3.3wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-2.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6932…6878backed Under40c200$80 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8026845.9%123 W · 145 L+0.8wins0.00per pick46cpaid+0.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc621…7c5cbacked Under47c195.18$92 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$91.76825%2 W · 6 L-2.1wins-0.26per pick51cpaid-50.6%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xead1…c76abacked Over53c187.03$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$87.161,02951.2%527 W · 502 L-6.2wins-0.01per pick52cpaid-0.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5821…7c51backed Over55c183.91$101 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$83.22,99550.8%1,521 W · 1,474 L-36.0wins-0.01per pick52cpaid-4.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5cb4…4576backed Under40c183.43$74 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$73.5218649.5%92 W · 94 L-1.3wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x948b…a188backed Under40c183.41$73 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$73.3694648.9%463 W · 483 L+4.3wins0.00per pick48cpaid-2.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa93e…0a8cbacked Under40c181.96$73 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$72.792548%12 W · 13 L+0.1wins0.00per pick48cpaid+1.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5d05…f729backed Under42c177.2$74 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$74.2920044.5%89 W · 111 L-8.6wins-0.04per pick49cpaid-5.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xe624…2928backed Under49c170$84 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$83.549649.8%247 W · 249 L+11.5wins+0.02per pick47cpaid+6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x93ac…2761backed Over58c164.69$96 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$69.172,58361.4%1,587 W · 996 L+70.9wins+0.03per pick59cpaid+4.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x198c…6a94backed Over60c161.04$97 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$64.425541.8%23 W · 32 L-3.3wins-0.06per pick48cpaid-11.6%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xbfd8…eecabacked Over50c155.2$78 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$77.622248.6%108 W · 114 L-4.0wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-3.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe33d…9512backed Under18c154.18$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.0617244.2%76 W · 96 L-7.2wins-0.04per pick48cpaid-12.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xc81a…c368backed Under41c152.92$63 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$62.740446.5%188 W · 216 L+4.5wins+0.01per pick45cpaid+3.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5b20…99e9backed Under46c147.24$68 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$67.7344348.5%215 W · 228 L-7.8wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-2.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x234b…f36dbacked Under40c135.32$54 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$54.139553.7%51 W · 44 L+1.2wins+0.01per pick52cpaid-1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6c04…a593backed Under43c126.14$54 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$54.242548%12 W · 13 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-2.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x16ea…9400backed Over59c114.88$68 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$46.8125249.6%125 W · 127 L-2.0wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-1.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4479…c84abacked Under42c113.99$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$47.831450%7 W · 7 L+0.3wins+0.02per pick48cpaid-5.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf6f7…c7a2backed Under45c107.44$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48.354740.4%19 W · 28 L-3.3wins-0.07per pick47cpaid-21.4%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x1bf7…6f57backed Under40c106.04$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42.4211250%56 W · 56 L+1.0wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+2.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x43d7…1c75backed Under47c100$47 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4721748.4%105 W · 112 L-3.2wins-0.01per pick50cpaid+0.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Under19c99.91$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.24,38144.9%1,966 W · 2,415 L+77.8wins+0.02per pick43cpaid-6.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa697…59d5backed Over56c99.64$56 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$43.566,89950.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L-7.1wins0.00per pick51cpaid-0.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbd14…76b4backed Under50c97.94$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48.978360.2%50 W · 33 L+8.5wins+0.10per pick50cpaid+19.1%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x6912…2aabbacked Under41c94.11$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.582835.7%10 W · 18 L-3.8wins-0.14per pick49cpaid-23.5%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x0f8e…3082backed Under18c93.2$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.1578146.4%362 W · 419 L+11.8wins+0.02per pick45cpaid-1.1%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x4259…77c1backed Over58c82.34$48 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$34.582,24357.6%1,293 W · 950 L+37.1wins+0.02per pick56cpaid+2.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8482…3f7abacked Over68c78.64$54 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25.061,06249.2%523 W · 539 L-11.7wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-4.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x29c4…c3b0backed Under40c77.12$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.852045%9 W · 11 L-0.3wins-0.02per pick47cpaid-2.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa20d…eadebacked Under48c60.55$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.0620446.6%95 W · 109 L-10.2wins-0.05per pick52cpaid-9.4%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xc798…a8e9backed Under40c59.29$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.7210649.1%52 W · 54 L+1.8wins+0.02per pick47cpaid+1.4%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xca2d…39edbacked Under44c57.5$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.323248.7%113 W · 119 L+4.9wins+0.02per pick47cpaid+4.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd77d…b01cbacked Under43c56.15$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.154548.9%22 W · 23 L-1.1wins-0.02per pick51cpaid-7.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xcce5…7eb2backed Under43c56.15$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.155345.3%24 W · 29 L-3.2wins-0.06per pick51cpaid-15.2%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x8968…c3c1backed Under44c55.62$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.2822849.6%113 W · 115 L-2.1wins-0.01per pick50cpaid+0.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x14e4…eabbbacked Under46c52.59$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.1950949.5%252 W · 257 L+2.9wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+1.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x255a…3435backed Under28c50.48$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.241,52234.7%528 W · 994 L+27.1wins+0.02per pick33cpaid-3.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0011…4cbabacked Under42c50.27$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2130963.1%195 W · 114 L-9.1wins-0.03per pick66cpaid-6.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1df6…cba0backed Over48c48.96$23 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25.551,44550.3%727 W · 718 L-27.6wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-15.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd5f5…bb11backed Over58c48.74$28 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20.4755953.1%297 W · 262 L+10.5wins+0.02per pick51cpaid+4.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x551c…fe91backed Under23c48.66$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.261,21855.6%677 W · 541 L+94.9wins+0.08per pick48cpaid+13.4%equal weight58+0.08 edge/pick
0xae45…96b9backed Under40c46.2$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.488351.8%43 W · 40 L+0.9wins+0.01per pick51cpaid-0.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x239b…bd0bbacked Under50c46.11$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.06977.8%7 W · 2 L+2.3wins+0.25per pick52cpaid+54.5%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x033f…618ebacked Over59c46.08$27 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.7113649.3%67 W · 69 L+10.5wins+0.08per pick42cpaid+68.4%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x7770…f99bbacked Under42c45.96$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.36446.9%30 W · 34 L-5.8wins-0.09per pick56cpaid-16.3%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0x12b4…a662backed Over58c45.93$26 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.471,13357.2%648 W · 485 L+35.9wins+0.03per pick54cpaid+4.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x0d6b…8ffabacked Under40c45.8$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.325154.9%28 W · 23 L+4.1wins+0.08per pick47cpaid+29.9%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 11 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.