Tennis · resolved market
Roland Garros, Qualification ATP: Elias Ymer vs Arthur Fery
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x8f48418b1b6181a8deaaec6455dcd865a19a8d880a230539246e96c5fd1bf97d
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Arthur Feryof Elias Ymer, Arthur Fery
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $21,698
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $20,807
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $21,698 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 34 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Elias Ymer | 13c | 7,391$989 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$989.1 | 8,828 | 36.1%3,190 W · 5,638 L | -193.3wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5c77…2c45backed Elias Ymer | 18c | 3,063$546 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$546 | 91 | 51.6%47 W · 44 L | +4.8wins | +0.05per pick | 46cpaid | +18.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9086…4d46backed Elias Ymer | 31c | 968.66$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 1,841 | 48.5%892 W · 949 L | -32.0wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Arthur Fery | 70c | 893.86$621 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$272.51 | 11,435 | 43.4%4,959 W · 6,476 L | +17.8wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x224e…f7ddbacked Elias Ymer | 28c | 427.76$118 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$117.72 | 89 | 51.7%46 W · 43 L | -3.1wins | -0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf753…bcfebacked Elias Ymer | 17c | 374.97$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65 | 537 | 36.9%198 W · 339 L | +6.7wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd038…8f51backed Arthur Fery | 79c | 292.97$232 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.13 | 4,288 | 40.5%1,737 W · 2,551 L | -139.3wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Elias Ymer | 13c | 291.41$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.48 | 4,185 | 44.7%1,871 W · 2,314 L | +14.9wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3541…266dbacked Arthur Fery | 65c | 284.94$185 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$99.73 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -1.2wins | -0.18per pick | 60cpaid | -39.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xafaf…1635backed Arthur Fery | 80c | 226.56$180 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.41 | 2,049 | 46.8%958 W · 1,091 L | +19.0wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7fea…8f74backed Elias Ymer | 21c | 217.49$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.43 | 921 | 45.2%416 W · 505 L | -4.7wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x505f…645ebacked Arthur Fery | 76c | 169.89$129 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.54 | 1,626 | 52.7%857 W · 769 L | +13.7wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0ade…ed94backed Elias Ymer | 31c | 125$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.75 | 1,458 | 54%787 W · 671 L | -33.0wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +64.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc7c7…3b08backed Arthur Fery | 74c | 112.16$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.16 | 509 | 58%295 W · 214 L | -26.5wins | -0.05per pick | 63cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5e02…b178backed Elias Ymer | 11c | 107.41$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.1 | 334 | 9.6%32 W · 302 L | -16.7wins | -0.05per pick | 15cpaid | -48.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Arthur Fery | 78c | 102.33$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.7 | 8,505 | 42.6%3,619 W · 4,886 L | -166.3wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -21.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1d18…6f62backed Arthur Fery | 69c | 99.99$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31 | 560 | 62.5%350 W · 210 L | +11.4wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9e16…4698backed Arthur Fery | 69c | 92.51$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.51 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.13per pick | 63cpaid | -20%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6f6a…9888backed Arthur Fery | 75c | 87.17$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.75 | 1,222 | 55%672 W · 550 L | +8.3wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x071f…92bdbacked Arthur Fery | 72c | 84.29$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.63 | 1,076 | 73.8%794 W · 282 L | +41.1wins | +0.04per pick | 70cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1e3b…e232backed Elias Ymer | 31c | 75.29$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.3 | 3,901 | 50.1%1,953 W · 1,948 L | -13.2wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc25c…f6dfbacked Elias Ymer | 17c | 70$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.9 | 51 | 45.1%23 W · 28 L | -1.6wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Arthur Fery | 80c | 63.79$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.98 | 7,816 | 50.6%3,958 W · 3,858 L | +95.4wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb5e7…3c1abacked Arthur Fery | 68c | 57.11$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.28 | 872 | 51.1%446 W · 426 L | +8.3wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1d0a…ea32backed Elias Ymer | 22c | 55.56$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.5 | 436 | 18.3%80 W · 356 L | -21.4wins | -0.05per pick | 23cpaid | -32.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x88c7…febcbacked Arthur Fery | 74c | 53.27$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.85 | 74 | 74.3%55 W · 19 L | +7.1wins | +0.10per pick | 65cpaid | +17.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf18a…e4e5backed Arthur Fery | 69c | 50.64$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.75 | 2,343 | 51.6%1,209 W · 1,134 L | +95.2wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x175e…8e46backed Arthur Fery | 69c | 43.52$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.52 | 103 | 63.1%65 W · 38 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd3cf…f20ebacked Arthur Fery | 71c | 35.41$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.41 | 24 | 70.8%17 W · 7 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 69cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ad…7889backed Arthur Fery | 74c | 35.02$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.02 | 560 | 70.7%396 W · 164 L | -14.5wins | -0.03per pick | 73cpaid | -4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8fe7…6c1fbacked Elias Ymer | 32c | 31.5$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.08 | 335 | 50.1%168 W · 167 L | +11.6wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Arthur Fery | 72c | 27$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.61 | 6,439 | 54.4%3,502 W · 2,937 L | +285.2wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +26.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3bf3…8f91backed Arthur Fery | 67c | 26.87$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.87 | 46 | 65.2%30 W · 16 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 64cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa6d7…d801backed Arthur Fery | 75c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 336 | 55.1%185 W · 151 L | -2.3wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.