TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

CS2 · resolved market

Counter-Strike: ECHO vs Inner Circle Esports (BO3) - Stake Ranked Episode 3: Closed Qualifier Playoffs

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
ECHOof ECHO, Inner Circle Esports
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
CS2every record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$84,734
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$95,554

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $84,734 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 162 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in CS2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in CS2
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x29b5…cc6cbacked Inner Circle Esports69c11,536$7,903 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,903.035,02855%2,763 W · 2,265 L+112.5wins+0.02per pick53cpaid+5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4ebc…a33dbacked ECHO61c10,533$6,435 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,097.7663057.1%360 W · 270 L+40.4wins+0.06per pick51cpaid-6.9%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xddc3…029cbacked Inner Circle Esports38c9,131$3,469 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,468.8292456.8%525 W · 399 L+2.0wins0.00per pick57cpaid-1.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdb83…1e50backed Inner Circle Esports68c6,045$4,111 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,110.622,61051.7%1,349 W · 1,261 L+16.3wins+0.01per pick51cpaid-2.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf268…ecf6backed Inner Circle Esports41c2,581$1,060 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,060.257851.3%40 W · 38 L-2.2wins-0.03per pick54cpaid-2.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x54ea…f74abacked ECHO31c2,360$738 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,621.5825344.3%112 W · 141 L-7.2wins-0.03per pick47cpaid-10.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x30c7…ac3bbacked ECHO32c2,280$741 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,539.5475452.7%397 W · 357 L+27.1wins+0.04per pick49cpaid+8.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x36d8…c7c7backed ECHO32c2,222$700 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,522.0557641.5%239 W · 337 L-8.3wins-0.01per pick43cpaid-9%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x72aa…90e0backed ECHO59c2,004$1,186 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$817.624,22049.2%2,078 W · 2,142 L+61.6wins+0.01per pick48cpaid-10.6%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xdbdd…a5debacked ECHO58c1,690$978 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$712.637,89250.5%3,983 W · 3,909 L+182.0wins+0.02per pick48cpaid-2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x52b7…0aa1backed ECHO32c1,553$497 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,056.181,40833.7%475 W · 933 L+43.0wins+0.03per pick31cpaid+8.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2529…548abacked ECHO65c1,505$980 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$524.983,21751.3%1,649 W · 1,568 L+89.2wins+0.03per pick48cpaid-6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x8811…627cbacked ECHO63c1,300$825 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$47539072.3%282 W · 108 L+37.5wins+0.10per pick63cpaid+10.2%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x8056…b64dbacked Inner Circle Esports61c1,224$751 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$750.991,62144.8%726 W · 895 L+3.6wins0.00per pick45cpaid-5.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x17cd…7423backed ECHO31c1,201$372 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$828.9146143.4%200 W · 261 L+2.3wins+0.01per pick43cpaid+0.5%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x729b…1b33backed ECHO66c1,086$720 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$365.551947.4%9 W · 10 L-1.7wins-0.09per pick56cpaid-23.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x34af…3bbfbacked Inner Circle Esports41c1,021$423 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$422.532630.8%8 W · 18 L-0.6wins-0.02per pick33cpaid-23.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x048f…9992backed Inner Circle Esports1c1,000$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$105740%0 W · 574 L-6.8wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5984…76ebbacked ECHO32c944.47$300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$644.4652236.8%192 W · 330 L+20.2wins+0.04per pick33cpaid+11.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xc34b…9296backed Inner Circle Esports68c886.84$600 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6001,99853.7%1,073 W · 925 L+5.2wins0.00per pick53cpaid+1.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x024c…5fa1backed ECHO38c805.77$310 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$495.8337145.6%169 W · 202 L+9.3wins+0.03per pick43cpaid+8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x8bec…7800backed ECHO32c746.65$236 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$510.1933148.3%160 W · 171 L+6.7wins+0.02per pick46cpaid+0.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7cee…b72abacked ECHO31c721.29$224 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$497.695354.7%29 W · 24 L+4.6wins+0.09per pick46cpaid+31.5%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xefa3…7585backed ECHO31c712.73$223 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$489.877351.2%396 W · 377 L+24.2wins+0.03per pick48cpaid+4.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xb4d2…ce99backed Inner Circle Esports15c693.82$103 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$103.282,60830.9%807 W · 1,801 L-103.7wins-0.04per pick35cpaid-29.8%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xdabd…6adabacked ECHO31c671$209 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$461.994740.4%19 W · 28 L-0.1wins0.00per pick41cpaid-8.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc0f1…8680backed ECHO51c668$342 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$325.662,52043%1,084 W · 1,436 L+42.5wins+0.02per pick41cpaid-3.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5505…aa44backed ECHO31c661.52$206 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$455.1738841.8%162 W · 226 L+8.1wins+0.02per pick40cpaid+5.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xdb25…eb12backed Inner Circle Esports69c632.18$437 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$436.7350051.4%257 W · 243 L-6.1wins-0.01per pick53cpaid+0.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xde25…c0a5backed Inner Circle Esports69c613.01$426 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$425.822049.1%108 W · 112 L-8.2wins-0.04per pick53cpaid-4.8%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xef20…8f64backed ECHO31c600$186 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$41412234.4%42 W · 80 L-0.3wins0.00per pick35cpaid-9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfd14…2267backed ECHO30c599.97$180 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$419.985,81037.8%2,196 W · 3,614 L+78.9wins+0.01per pick36cpaid+0.8%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x4d1d…01acbacked ECHO30c581$174 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$406.72356.5%13 W · 10 L+1.9wins+0.08per pick48cpaid+0.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xebff…70e5backed Inner Circle Esports37c532.27$199 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$198.532,77424.5%681 W · 2,093 L-295.8wins-0.11per pick35cpaid-50.7%equal weight38-0.11 edge/pick
0xb21b…88f9backed ECHO33c529.78$177 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$352.9746354%250 W · 213 L+12.9wins+0.03per pick51cpaid+7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x14e7…a32cbacked ECHO62c524.79$324 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$200.421,30241.2%536 W · 766 L-50.1wins-0.04per pick45cpaid-24.1%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x15d1…2f08backed ECHO44c519.89$230 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$290.3115646.8%73 W · 83 L-1.3wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-10.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0e1b…ecafbacked ECHO58c516.62$298 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$218.522,32851.1%1,189 W · 1,139 L+92.3wins+0.04per pick47cpaid+1.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x505f…645ebacked ECHO64c509.68$324 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$185.32,60352.6%1,370 W · 1,233 L+97.5wins+0.04per pick49cpaid-3.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x0800…ceb0backed Inner Circle Esports69c501$346 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$345.698143.2%35 W · 46 L+2.1wins+0.03per pick41cpaid+5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8efe…6704backed ECHO60c500$300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20020562.4%128 W · 77 L+5.4wins+0.03per pick60cpaid+0.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xc542…7fe1backed ECHO70c500$350 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1501353.8%7 W · 6 L+0.4wins+0.03per pick51cpaid-9.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xefbc…b344backed ECHO59c462.57$272 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$190.8140542%170 W · 235 L-10.4wins-0.03per pick45cpaid-17%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x5135…7217backed ECHO33c454.54$150 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$304.541,60552.6%845 W · 760 L+57.1wins+0.04per pick49cpaid+7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x1c98…186dbacked ECHO32c449.85$144 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$305.935947.9%172 W · 187 L-10.1wins-0.03per pick51cpaid-10.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xd2ad…a700backed ECHO31c444.42$140 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$304.677152.1%37 W · 34 L+4.1wins+0.06per pick46cpaid+7.3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xc4fe…601fbacked ECHO58c442.43$259 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$183.723,41529.3%1,001 W · 2,414 L-275.1wins-0.08per pick37cpaid-43.3%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xf66e…14b7backed ECHO59c413$245 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$167.5645754.5%249 W · 208 L+18.2wins+0.04per pick51cpaid+1.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x2785…ce75backed ECHO31c405$126 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$279.4513550.4%68 W · 67 L+0.4wins0.00per pick50cpaid-11%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x64d4…f056backed ECHO33c390.14$129 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$261.4466436.6%243 W · 421 L-35.9wins-0.05per pick42cpaid-29.2%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xdbe8…1141backed ECHO31c341.94$106 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$235.947742.9%33 W · 44 L+0.4wins0.00per pick42cpaid-1.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x87a3…5857backed ECHO30c341.26$102 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$238.8819347.2%91 W · 102 L-3.3wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc1b5…c8f8backed Inner Circle Esports69c310.75$215 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$215.159049.7%293 W · 297 L-31.5wins-0.05per pick55cpaid-13.7%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xd9e7…9408backed Inner Circle Esports32c308.15$98 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$97.7150%0 W · 5 L-1.8wins-0.35per pick35cpaid-100%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xf7e8…7953backed Inner Circle Esports67c298.51$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20040449.8%201 W · 203 L+1.9wins0.00per pick49cpaid+0.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0a83…0be8backed ECHO71c297.24$211 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$86.1610437.5%39 W · 65 L-4.6wins-0.04per pick42cpaid-31.8%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x5b0c…d43abacked ECHO33c293.6$96 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$197.346247.8%221 W · 241 L-2.7wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-0.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2b35…0bfebacked ECHO33c289.13$95 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$194.3291245.8%418 W · 494 L-10.0wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-6.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x653e…bbc0backed ECHO30c288.2$86 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$202.1738739.5%153 W · 234 L-15.3wins-0.04per pick43cpaid-10.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xbfd7…f0bfbacked ECHO69c281.87$194 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$87.385,47446.9%2,565 W · 2,909 L+38.6wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-4.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xaa6c…a9b3backed ECHO71c279.93$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$79.931,16354.3%631 W · 532 L-38.8wins-0.03per pick58cpaid-6.9%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x7d70…ae13backed ECHO34c275.5$94 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$181.254045%18 W · 22 L-2.6wins-0.06per pick51cpaid-12.6%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xa533…755fbacked ECHO30c270.53$82 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$188.635350.9%27 W · 26 L-0.5wins-0.01per pick52cpaid+1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2140…0e12backed ECHO31c270.15$84 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$186.454339.4%214 W · 329 L-21.3wins-0.04per pick43cpaid-11.8%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x6326…6329backed ECHO32c265.79$84 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$181.8758743.4%255 W · 332 L-2.1wins0.00per pick44cpaid-6.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x904e…0becbacked Inner Circle Esports23c264.23$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$60.064,89737.4%1,832 W · 3,065 L-245.2wins-0.05per pick42cpaid-32.1%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x37c1…8de1backed ECHO43c256.44$110 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$146.171,31444.3%582 W · 732 L+47.4wins+0.04per pick41cpaid+8.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x0d78…b8b9backed Inner Circle Esports62c240$149 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$148.616450.6%83 W · 81 L+6.0wins+0.04per pick47cpaid+6.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xb41e…db27backed ECHO31c238.52$74 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$164.589345.2%42 W · 51 L+0.9wins+0.01per pick44cpaid-1.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4713…4d21backed Inner Circle Esports25c238$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$60.235,26231.3%1,647 W · 3,615 L-381.6wins-0.07per pick39cpaid-37.1%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xcbbe…1f4abacked Inner Circle Esports16c236.16$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.796555.4%36 W · 29 L+0.7wins+0.01per pick54cpaid-5.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6986…3369backed Inner Circle Esports70c234.54$164 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$164.159849%48 W · 50 L-6.2wins-0.06per pick55cpaid-5.4%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x6851…42d8backed ECHO51c233.55$119 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$114.552142.9%9 W · 12 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-15.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5747…7fdfbacked Inner Circle Esports67c223.88$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15025554.5%139 W · 116 L-3.7wins-0.01per pick56cpaid-4.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8494…814abacked Inner Circle Esports68c221.6$151 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$150.687647.4%36 W · 40 L-2.3wins-0.03per pick50cpaid-9.5%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x65f7…86ddbacked Inner Circle Esports70c221.43$154 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$154.283735.1%13 W · 24 L-4.5wins-0.12per pick47cpaid-33.3%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xd154…9c74backed Inner Circle Esports48c221$105 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$105.1764046.3%296 W · 344 L-3.4wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-14.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbb8e…08c1backed ECHO71c216$154 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$622,34346.7%1,094 W · 1,249 L-49.9wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-14.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x86ca…bc47backed ECHO32c215.63$69 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$146.636741.8%28 W · 39 L-1.0wins-0.01per pick43cpaid-8.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x14f3…0796backed ECHO56c206.33$115 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$91.1589046.1%410 W · 480 L-20.7wins-0.02per pick48cpaid-8.9%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x0d72…a791backed ECHO31c197.25$61 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$136.116554.5%90 W · 75 L+3.1wins+0.02per pick53cpaid+2.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2ffa…7710backed ECHO31c195.34$61 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$134.7610643.4%46 W · 60 L+2.1wins+0.02per pick41cpaid+6.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x775d…6bebbacked ECHO71c178.55$126 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$52.592,11942.9%909 W · 1,210 L-66.7wins-0.03per pick46cpaid-19.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2e3c…08babacked ECHO75c167.84$126 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$42.124,66143.5%2,027 W · 2,634 L-85.1wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-21.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5f56…348abacked ECHO64c164.96$106 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$59.0859732.2%192 W · 405 L-49.6wins-0.08per pick40cpaid-38.6%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xec8c…3bcdbacked ECHO32c159.93$51 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$108.7535131.1%109 W · 242 L-4.8wins-0.01per pick32cpaid-12.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xae28…8883backed ECHO31c154.78$48 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$106.81442.9%6 W · 8 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick44cpaid+7.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe907…cff6backed ECHO39c153.67$60 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$93.992,30945.1%1,041 W · 1,268 L-62.6wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-16.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x92db…68d2backed ECHO31c153.23$47 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$105.731145.5%5 W · 6 L+0.4wins+0.03per pick42cpaid+2.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1cdd…e595backed Inner Circle Esports43c150.63$65 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$64.952,46724.6%606 W · 1,861 L-318.3wins-0.13per pick37cpaid-51.8%equal weight36-0.13 edge/pick
0x4fb0…6197backed ECHO67c150$101 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$49.58958.4%52 W · 37 L+7.2wins+0.08per pick50cpaid+16.4%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x4572…47e7backed ECHO34c149.99$51 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$98.9945545.1%205 W · 250 L-2.7wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-6.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa6d4…2f1ebacked Inner Circle Esports47c148.94$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7029156.7%165 W · 126 L+9.5wins+0.03per pick53cpaid+6.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x189c…bd67backed ECHO73c144.11$105 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$39.111361.5%8 W · 5 L-0.5wins-0.04per pick65cpaid-10.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2bf3…4f00backed ECHO66c124.21$82 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$42.4940857.1%233 W · 175 L+15.2wins+0.04per pick53cpaid+5.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xddb6…b9b3backed ECHO61c121.13$74 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$46.972,49141.1%1,023 W · 1,468 L-114.2wins-0.05per pick46cpaid-22.8%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xde53…e5bebacked Inner Circle Esports69c120$83 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$82.81,26246.9%592 W · 670 L-34.1wins-0.03per pick50cpaid-5.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xd0e2…f6fbbacked ECHO32c117.84$38 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$80.132552%13 W · 12 L+1.9wins+0.08per pick44cpaid+24.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xc263…1e83backed Inner Circle Esports69c115.41$80 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$79.7934750.7%176 W · 171 L-7.7wins-0.02per pick53cpaid-3.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x83b3…c2d7backed Inner Circle Esports56c108.1$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$606457.8%37 W · 27 L+0.2wins0.00per pick58cpaid-1.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in CS2 and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.