Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 23°C or higher on April 5?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x8f7a4aff0a18a2a292825ae02b0739761d293bc8a0f566059211bb6a057e6e4d
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $35,331
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $36,203
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $35,331 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 95 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd209…8dbabacked No | 0c | 14,438$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.44 | 67 | 52.2%35 W · 32 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe2e9…eb6cbacked No | 3c | 4,799$149 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$148.51 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | +1.8wins | +0.18per pick | 52cpaid | +26.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xea6b…5ac2backed Yes | 58c | 923.37$534 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$389.79 | 534 | 37.3%199 W · 335 L | -29.9wins | -0.06per pick | 43cpaid | -22.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x42f8…de50backed Yes | 54c | 460.8$247 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$213.37 | 55 | 43.6%24 W · 31 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 44c | 352.38$153 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$153.29 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf6f7…e0dabacked Yes | 52c | 340.11$176 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$163.74 | 1,861 | 23.8%443 W · 1,418 L | +47.9wins | +0.03per pick | 21cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 36c | 276.93$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$176.88 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd80a…c714backed Yes | 38c | 267.13$103 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$164.42 | 1,977 | 18.8%371 W · 1,606 L | +8.0wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xed54…4967backed No | 37c | 201.04$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.51 | 498 | 54.6%272 W · 226 L | +46.4wins | +0.09per pick | 45cpaid | +20.6%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x43b1…aba6backed Yes | 61c | 187.54$114 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.87 | 774 | 28.6%221 W · 553 L | -5.5wins | -0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 59c | 173.76$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.33 | 3,175 | 62.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L | +12.6wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4a91…983fbacked No | 46c | 167.84$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.47 | 139 | 42.4%59 W · 80 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4add…6fe5backed No | 50c | 164.26$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.58 | 1,452 | 36.8%534 W · 918 L | +12.3wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5245…00c4backed Yes | 53c | 162.93$87 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.94 | 296 | 40.5%120 W · 176 L | -7.7wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0bab…220bbacked No | 59c | 161.36$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.95 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.59per pick | 59cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 39c | 141.05$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.7 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 50c | 128.68$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.02 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x64b0…ab64backed Yes | 72c | 128.1$92 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.99 | 294 | 59.5%175 W · 119 L | +20.7wins | +0.07per pick | 52cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x64a4…c103backed No | 45c | 127.4$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.33 | 110 | 38.2%42 W · 68 L | -2.0wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes | 17c | 126.08$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.8 | 4,496 | 19.6%882 W · 3,614 L | +49.5wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x072f…86b1backed No | 41c | 114.19$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.92 | 111 | 51.4%57 W · 54 L | -8.0wins | -0.07per pick | 59cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked Yes | 48c | 112.92$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.26 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x035a…ff68backed Yes | 23c | 112.76$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.43 | 315 | 42.9%135 W · 180 L | -4.5wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x938e…2ee3backed No | 41c | 109.91$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.36 | 76 | 59.2%45 W · 31 L | +5.7wins | +0.08per pick | 52cpaid | +19.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xed22…6450backed Yes | 60c | 106.6$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.64 | 431 | 39.2%169 W · 262 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8746…f522backed No | 63c | 106.05$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.52 | 117 | 48.7%57 W · 60 L | -6.1wins | -0.05per pick | 54cpaid | -17%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x993f…35cbbacked No | 72c | 101.03$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.77 | 1,842 | 63.5%1,170 W · 672 L | -42.5wins | -0.02per pick | 66cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 64c | 100.57$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.17 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6ef3…f1c5backed No | 44c | 100$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44 | 324 | 44.4%144 W · 180 L | -10.1wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaf5b…aea3backed Yes | 55c | 99.99$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.99 | 67 | 38.8%26 W · 41 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd73c…ca1dbacked No | 54c | 98.56$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.22 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4d2f…bad2backed No | 47c | 93.92$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.18 | 58 | 37.9%22 W · 36 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7e45…4815backed Yes | 53c | 90.35$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.71 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.5wins | -0.08per pick | 25cpaid | -68.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x47af…3999backed No | 38c | 86.44$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.85 | 326 | 52.1%170 W · 156 L | +7.6wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x01a6…59b0backed No | 50c | 80.07$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.4 | 1,679 | 61.7%1,036 W · 643 L | +6.3wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xae68…064abacked No | 48c | 76.82$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.18 | 2,555 | 63.8%1,631 W · 924 L | +38.4wins | +0.02per pick | 62cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd7ba…1349backed No | 56c | 75.26$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.14 | 271 | 67.2%182 W · 89 L | +1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 67cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5de8…3eddbacked No | 40c | 71$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.4 | 461 | 48.8%225 W · 236 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ad7…347abacked Yes | 72c | 70.56$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 729 | 52.4%382 W · 347 L | +34.9wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xef40…b116backed Yes | 49c | 69.12$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.2 | 149 | 26.2%39 W · 110 L | -6.9wins | -0.05per pick | 31cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd271…37e0backed Yes | 41c | 67.76$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.82 | 310 | 29.7%92 W · 218 L | -1.4wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4b85…7265backed Yes | 36c | 66.5$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.27 | 38 | 60.5%23 W · 15 L | +1.4wins | +0.04per pick | 57cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdf8e…af43backed Yes | 50c | 66.02$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.04 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -26.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc907…020fbacked Yes | 44c | 65.84$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.56 | 44 | 52.3%23 W · 21 L | +2.8wins | +0.06per pick | 46cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x59c6…ad9dbacked Yes | 44c | 65.01$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.7 | 58 | 53.4%31 W · 27 L | +3.3wins | +0.06per pick | 48cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4add…fb04backed Yes | 52c | 62.96$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.41 | 118 | 44.9%53 W · 65 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd4a9…75f9backed No | 55c | 62.74$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.27 | 262 | 53.4%140 W · 122 L | -2.9wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1d85…6008backed Yes | 32c | 62.52$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.46 | 54 | 25.9%14 W · 40 L | +3.2wins | +0.06per pick | 20cpaid | -11%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f4…1e34backed Yes | 78c | 62.31$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.6 | 1,312 | 45%590 W · 722 L | +33.6wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa2c1…c53fbacked No | 48c | 61.7$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.73 | 31 | 22.6%7 W · 24 L | +1.1wins | +0.04per pick | 19cpaid | -21.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0f1c…c965backed Yes | 53c | 59.36$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.81 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | +1.7wins | +0.12per pick | 38cpaid | +27.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1408…b4f8backed No | 48c | 58.75$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.11 | 1,605 | 42.9%689 W · 916 L | -86.9wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc17e…906abacked No | 52c | 53.3$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.73 | 540 | 43.9%237 W · 303 L | +11.2wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x16d9…f0b0backed Yes | 54c | 53.24$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.64 | 286 | 48.3%138 W · 148 L | +7.6wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 50c | 53$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.5 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x966c…087fbacked Yes | 50c | 51.52$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.66 | 441 | 47.4%209 W · 232 L | -17.5wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x39c3…e155backed Yes | 23c | 50.22$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.66 | 254 | 47.6%121 W · 133 L | -18.8wins | -0.07per pick | 55cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7d8d…a96cbacked Yes | 46c | 49.99$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.99 | 810 | 29.1%236 W · 574 L | -14.4wins | -0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3d7e…ad97backed No | 37c | 49.24$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.22 | 119 | 56.3%67 W · 52 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3007…8f81backed Yes | 38c | 49.06$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.27 | 70 | 44.3%31 W · 39 L | +1.6wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x77bd…e48fbacked No | 26c | 46$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.99 | 209 | 28.7%60 W · 149 L | -45.3wins | -0.22per pick | 50cpaid | -44.4%equal weight | 28-0.19 edge/pick |
| 0xc3b7…b30abacked Yes | 50c | 45.81$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.91 | 54 | 74.1%40 W · 14 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 72cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaff9…64ffbacked Yes | 44c | 45.31$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.37 | 2,674 | 30%803 W · 1,871 L | +5.4wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x47e6…c039backed Yes | 26c | 44.3$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.69 | 182 | 42.3%77 W · 105 L | -19.1wins | -0.10per pick | 53cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 34c | 44.22$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.22 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9c23…56ecbacked Yes | 71c | 40.97$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.84 | 301 | 41.2%124 W · 177 L | -2.9wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x13d3…415ebacked No | 76c | 39.99$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.39 | 422 | 53.1%224 W · 198 L | +9.8wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x59ec…3dd8backed Yes | 45c | 39.46$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.7 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -2.3wins | -0.38per pick | 55cpaid | -63%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe07e…0e7ebacked No | 38c | 39.03$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.81 | 334 | 50.6%169 W · 165 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xacb1…d05dbacked Yes | 51c | 37.34$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.32 | 25 | 40%10 W · 15 L | +1.7wins | +0.07per pick | 33cpaid | -20.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1589…95e3backed Yes | 53c | 35.85$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.76 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | -1.0wins | -0.06per pick | 53cpaid | -22.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x72d0…52f0backed Yes | 76c | 35$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.4 | 68 | 45.6%31 W · 37 L | +3.3wins | +0.05per pick | 41cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xca75…d923backed Yes | 34c | 34.21$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.53 | 84 | 36.9%31 W · 53 L | -12.7wins | -0.15per pick | 52cpaid | -41.9%equal weight | 37-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xcf37…993fbacked No | 33c | 33.53$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.18 | 656 | 25.8%169 W · 487 L | -13.2wins | -0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -35.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3183…d6fbbacked Yes | 58c | 33.11$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.93 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | -2.0wins | -0.15per pick | 38cpaid | -53.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6ec5…0006backed Yes | 43c | 32.94$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.8 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.09per pick | 34cpaid | -41.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4925…8f6cbacked No | 44c | 31.24$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.74 | 98 | 58.2%57 W · 41 L | -2.1wins | -0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 36c | 31.07$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.25 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x6c5a…1dc1backed No | 55c | 30.42$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.73 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.20per pick | 60cpaid | -39.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe471…6604backed No | 36c | 30$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.8 | 128 | 56.3%72 W · 56 L | +2.8wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4aa1…596cbacked Yes | 56c | 29.99$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.2 | 214 | 48.6%104 W · 110 L | +4.5wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x14f7…4ef7backed No | 47c | 29.06$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.67 | 13 | 0%0 W · 13 L | -1.5wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcb6b…c7f7backed Yes | 41c | 28.87$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.09 | 139 | 43.9%61 W · 78 L | -12.6wins | -0.09per pick | 53cpaid | -25.7%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 54c | 28$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.12 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf40e…43c2backed No | 55c | 28$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.4 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +1.1wins | +0.18per pick | 49cpaid | +69.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x529f…ad0dbacked No | 62c | 27.39$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.98 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 59cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe4c4…c488backed Yes | 60c | 27.03$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.87 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | +0.5wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfc92…b4d7backed No | 55c | 26.44$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.46 | 103 | 60.2%62 W · 41 L | -1.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd9c7…6dc4backed Yes | 55c | 26.05$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.72 | 26 | 53.8%14 W · 12 L | +1.7wins | +0.07per pick | 47cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd136…5b35backed Yes | 45c | 24.57$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.51 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +1.1wins | +0.18per pick | 48cpaid | +32.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6209…e82fbacked No | 46c | 22$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.13 | 18 | 27.8%5 W · 13 L | -2.3wins | -0.13per pick | 40cpaid | -46.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x19ad…2dbbbacked Yes | 56c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.8 | 106 | 45.3%48 W · 58 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x59f9…f99abacked No | 76c | 20$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.2 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.05per pick | 78cpaid | +6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x65b6…129dbacked No | 54c | 19.27$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.41 | 42 | 54.8%23 W · 19 L | -1.2wins | -0.03per pick | 58cpaid | -11%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa4ba…c5d8backed No | 54c | 18.52$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 251 | 30.7%77 W · 174 L | -9.8wins | -0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -29.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 23°C or higher on April 5?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 18°C on April 5?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 19°C on April 5?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 20°C on April 5?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 21°C on April 5?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 22°C on April 5?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.