Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 22°C on April 5?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xc9650f01a068edaa4a669ad1b800f88cf156e7f64a98c72fdcab6284b51c4dfe
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $26,975
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $27,442
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $26,975 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 47 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6dce…4490backed Yes | 8c | 460$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.4 | 1,285 | 19.5%250 W · 1,035 L | +44.3wins | +0.03per pick | 16cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfbb7…6f27backed Yes | 3c | 400$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 600 | 4.2%25 W · 575 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 4cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfd36…a832backed Yes | 56c | 345.07$193 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$193.02 | 650 | 43.4%282 W · 368 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd80a…c714backed Yes | 28c | 304.67$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.27 | 1,977 | 18.8%371 W · 1,606 L | +8.0wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 25c | 298.61$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.06 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xea6b…5ac2backed No | 71c | 272.21$194 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.93 | 534 | 37.3%199 W · 335 L | -29.9wins | -0.06per pick | 43cpaid | -22.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x42f8…de50backed Yes | 38c | 246.65$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.82 | 55 | 43.6%24 W · 31 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x43b1…aba6backed Yes | 27c | 140.53$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.52 | 774 | 28.6%221 W · 553 L | -5.5wins | -0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3c41…6275backed Yes | 22c | 109.27$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.58 | 263 | 27.8%73 W · 190 L | +14.9wins | +0.06per pick | 22cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 16c | 106.99$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.46 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 30c | 104.16$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.7 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc393…9161backed Yes | 37c | 99.96$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.19 | 48 | 45.8%22 W · 26 L | +2.8wins | +0.06per pick | 40cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd271…37e0backed Yes | 31c | 98.63$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.54 | 310 | 29.7%92 W · 218 L | -1.4wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x993f…35cbbacked No | 70c | 98.07$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.27 | 1,842 | 63.5%1,170 W · 672 L | -42.5wins | -0.02per pick | 66cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 65c | 97.93$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.58 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x099c…18e8backed Yes | 26c | 94.01$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.22 | 48 | 18.8%9 W · 39 L | -2.3wins | -0.05per pick | 24cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0fcc…f5c2backed Yes | 15c | 90.43$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.87 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 76c | 87.81$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.66 | 3,175 | 62.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L | +12.6wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xed54…4967backed Yes | 37c | 84.53$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.27 | 498 | 54.6%272 W · 226 L | +46.4wins | +0.09per pick | 45cpaid | +20.6%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xcf37…993fbacked Yes | 25c | 75.66$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.25 | 656 | 25.8%169 W · 487 L | -13.2wins | -0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -35.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xda18…4282backed No | 68c | 75$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24 | 28 | 46.4%13 W · 15 L | -1.5wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -24%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 34c | 72.88$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.03 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ce3…4291backed Yes | 23c | 72.25$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.48 | 2,165 | 23.8%516 W · 1,649 L | +83.8wins | +0.04per pick | 20cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 73c | 69.47$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.48 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xce2a…662ebacked No | 70c | 69.09$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.58 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.22per pick | 72cpaid | -28.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3007…8f81backed Yes | 27c | 68.24$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.55 | 70 | 44.3%31 W · 39 L | +1.6wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0f1c…c965backed Yes | 28c | 65.96$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.59 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | +1.7wins | +0.12per pick | 38cpaid | +27.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7515…0f90backed No | 62c | 63.76$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.91 | 159 | 54.7%87 W · 72 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9bda…439fbacked Yes | 25c | 60$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 594 | 40.6%241 W · 353 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 24c | 59.86$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.46 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc17e…906abacked Yes | 43c | 56.58$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.14 | 540 | 43.9%237 W · 303 L | +11.2wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaf17…5c20backed Yes | 28c | 51.06$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.48 | 1,787 | 25.7%460 W · 1,327 L | +132.5wins | +0.07per pick | 18cpaid | +50.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1735…0319backed Yes | 24c | 50.71$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.01 | 1,480 | 15.6%231 W · 1,249 L | +26.5wins | +0.02per pick | 14cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x19ad…2dbbbacked Yes | 32c | 50$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 106 | 45.3%48 W · 58 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc907…020fbacked Yes | 40c | 49.02$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.51 | 44 | 52.3%23 W · 21 L | +2.8wins | +0.06per pick | 46cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 74c | 43.79$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.41 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xc293…675dbacked Yes | 26c | 41.67$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.87 | 45 | 37.8%17 W · 28 L | +2.3wins | +0.05per pick | 33cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8842…dfa7backed Yes | 29c | 40.89$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.86 | 452 | 36.5%165 W · 287 L | +20.0wins | +0.04per pick | 32cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xff29…f008backed No | 34c | 40$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.6 | 119 | 50.4%60 W · 59 L | +13.9wins | +0.12per pick | 39cpaid | +18.7%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x7d9c…1450backed No | 79c | 38.74$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.95 | 142 | 51.4%73 W · 69 L | -21.9wins | -0.15per pick | 67cpaid | -29.8%equal weight | 35-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x8746…f522backed Yes | 41c | 34.56$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.11 | 117 | 48.7%57 W · 60 L | -6.1wins | -0.05per pick | 54cpaid | -17%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa074…3c9dbacked Yes | 41c | 34.29$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.12 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.41per pick | 41cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked No | 70c | 34.13$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.14 | 1,840 | 37%681 W · 1,159 L | -8.2wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x966c…087fbacked No | 58c | 23.95$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.02 | 441 | 47.4%209 W · 232 L | -17.5wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4b85…7265backed No | 65c | 23.51$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.23 | 38 | 60.5%23 W · 15 L | +1.4wins | +0.04per pick | 57cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4925…8f6cbacked No | 54c | 19.76$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.09 | 98 | 58.2%57 W · 41 L | -2.1wins | -0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbc4e…7dbbbacked No | 72c | 14.58$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.08 | 386 | 55.7%215 W · 171 L | +7.6wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 22°C on April 5?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 18°C on April 5?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 19°C on April 5?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 20°C on April 5?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 21°C on April 5?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 23°C or higher on April 5?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.