Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 21°C on April 5?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x9757c2deca3862b6ec62a6ca87c5604b34d8d30a9eb7467ec9eeaa56d1305115
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $11,613
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $11,908
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $11,613 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 37 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xfbb7…6f27backed Yes | 3c | 400$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 600 | 4.2%25 W · 575 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 4cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1735…0319backed Yes | 5c | 326.79$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.92 | 1,480 | 15.6%231 W · 1,249 L | +26.5wins | +0.02per pick | 14cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd80a…c714backed Yes | 23c | 323.6$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.8 | 1,977 | 18.8%371 W · 1,606 L | +8.0wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 20c | 312.62$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.93 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4add…6fe5backed Yes | 14c | 196.2$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.9 | 1,452 | 36.8%534 W · 918 L | +12.3wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 14c | 193.87$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.82 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed Yes | 7c | 186.92$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.01 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 6c | 186.03$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.42 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x6dce…4490backed Yes | 6c | 169.99$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.1 | 1,285 | 19.5%250 W · 1,035 L | +44.3wins | +0.03per pick | 16cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked Yes | 12c | 165.05$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.4 | 1,840 | 37%681 W · 1,159 L | -8.2wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x14f7…4ef7backed Yes | 8c | 156.36$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.62 | 13 | 0%0 W · 13 L | -1.5wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x399d…bf83backed Yes | 16c | 147.06$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.89 | 71 | 29.6%21 W · 50 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +82.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x025c…5b44backed Yes | 35c | 134.83$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.73 | 66 | 24.2%16 W · 50 L | -3.0wins | -0.05per pick | 29cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5368…2d62backed Yes | 19c | 130.47$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.57 | 1,804 | 27.4%494 W · 1,310 L | +27.6wins | +0.02per pick | 26cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8842…dfa7backed Yes | 9c | 123.99$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.16 | 452 | 36.5%165 W · 287 L | +20.0wins | +0.04per pick | 32cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x64c0…b4b9backed Yes | 16c | 118.15$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.45 | 241 | 9.5%23 W · 218 L | -5.5wins | -0.02per pick | 12cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcf37…993fbacked Yes | 15c | 101.43$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.01 | 656 | 25.8%169 W · 487 L | -13.2wins | -0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -35.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc393…9161backed Yes | 14c | 100$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 48 | 45.8%22 W · 26 L | +2.8wins | +0.06per pick | 40cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x43b1…aba6backed Yes | 12c | 99.28$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.54 | 774 | 28.6%221 W · 553 L | -5.5wins | -0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9bda…439fbacked Yes | 14c | 98.72$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.71 | 594 | 40.6%241 W · 353 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x099c…18e8backed Yes | 23c | 95.11$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.65 | 48 | 18.8%9 W · 39 L | -2.3wins | -0.05per pick | 24cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes | 24c | 93.68$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.21 | 3,859 | 23.4%903 W · 2,956 L | +128.4wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 12c | 92.55$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.87 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd271…37e0backed Yes | 21c | 91.3$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.56 | 310 | 29.7%92 W · 218 L | -1.4wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5e5d…9491backed No | 64c | 64.53$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.23 | 308 | 59.1%182 W · 126 L | -10.3wins | -0.03per pick | 62cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x58a4…7456backed Yes | 21c | 60.16$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.45 | 230 | 22.6%52 W · 178 L | -10.1wins | -0.04per pick | 27cpaid | -32.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8bac…cf49backed Yes | 19c | 53.03$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.15 | 1,089 | 29.7%323 W · 766 L | +36.6wins | +0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcce6…77d1backed Yes | 23c | 50$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.5 | 91 | 39.6%36 W · 55 L | +2.4wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x46b4…72e9backed Yes | 31c | 49.88$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.43 | 75 | 18.7%14 W · 61 L | -3.7wins | -0.05per pick | 24cpaid | -50.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xef40…b116backed No | 79c | 48.95$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.28 | 149 | 26.2%39 W · 110 L | -6.9wins | -0.05per pick | 31cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x95d4…839abacked Yes | 27c | 48.33$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.14 | 281 | 19.9%56 W · 225 L | -12.9wins | -0.05per pick | 25cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7e24…7379backed Yes | 26c | 45.36$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.84 | 456 | 19.1%87 W · 369 L | -11.8wins | -0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -24%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb55c…04eabacked No | 73c | 40$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.8 | 201 | 72.6%146 W · 55 L | -6.3wins | -0.03per pick | 76cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5235…6126backed No | 76c | 25.74$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.23 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.3wins | -0.32per pick | 57cpaid | -67%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa98a…a5a8backed No | 71c | 21.14$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.13 | 2,015 | 67.7%1,365 W · 650 L | +1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 68cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x35e6…7a4dbacked No | 74c | 18.62$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.86 | 1,699 | 60.6%1,029 W · 670 L | -24.7wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x10b0…137ebacked No | 71c | 17.99$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.22 | 136 | 63.2%86 W · 50 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 64cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 21°C on April 5?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 18°C on April 5?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 19°C on April 5?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 20°C on April 5?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 22°C on April 5?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 23°C or higher on April 5?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.