NHL · resolved market
Flyers vs. Capitals: O/U 5.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x8f90dffa18f90c230b5ce354aa2be015a59e0fb2513d8faa99507af94892c819
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NHLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $17,200
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $17,462
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $17,200 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 32 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NHL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NHL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xf68a…5b1bbacked Under | 55c | 5,158$2,860 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,298.51 | 1,441 | 49.2%709 W · 732 L | +6.5wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1d7a…b22fbacked Over | 52c | 3,846$2,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,000 | 168 | 43.5%73 W · 95 L | -14.3wins | -0.09per pick | 52cpaid | -16.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xdc87…7ab6backed Under | 44c | 2,548$1,121 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,427.03 | 561 | 52%292 W · 269 L | +7.1wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x42b5…b5b6backed Under | 38c | 2,414$917 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,496.68 | 1,377 | 49.1%676 W · 701 L | +39.2wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Over | 54c | 2,382$1,287 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,287.07 | 1,190 | 50.7%603 W · 587 L | +13.3wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Under | 46c | 2,017$937 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,080.45 | 2,894 | 51.3%1,484 W · 1,410 L | +58.0wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xada5…db70backed Over | 61c | 1,475$907 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$907.12 | 434 | 56%243 W · 191 L | +16.2wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xecfc…cd05backed Over | 62c | 1,216$760 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$759.75 | 868 | 52.4%455 W · 413 L | +7.0wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2060…9186backed Over | 53c | 1,000$530 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$530 | 308 | 55.5%171 W · 137 L | +9.0wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Over | 54c | 972.22$525 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$525 | 1,230 | 53.7%661 W · 569 L | -9.1wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4a86…d3e0backed Under | 47c | 718.67$339 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$379.34 | 916 | 53.9%494 W · 422 L | +39.6wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xabf5…cfebbacked Over | 52c | 700$364 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$364 | 270 | 48.1%130 W · 140 L | -8.8wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe1f1…3a05backed Over | 21c | 520.01$109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$109.2 | 63 | 41.3%26 W · 37 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Over | 32c | 310.84$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.67 | 2,754 | 47.9%1,318 W · 1,436 L | +11.9wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8314…0f1ebacked Under | 45c | 250$113 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$137.5 | 21 | 71.4%15 W · 6 L | +4.0wins | +0.19per pick | 52cpaid | +35.7%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x8709…7d3dbacked Over | 52c | 226.92$118 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$118 | 111 | 54.1%60 W · 51 L | -2.4wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc4db…7e0cbacked Under | 38c | 225$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$139.5 | 65 | 33.8%22 W · 43 L | -3.7wins | -0.06per pick | 40cpaid | -22.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Under | 77c | 175$135 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40 | 1,846 | 57.2%1,055 W · 791 L | +85.0wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x672a…abb7backed Over | 57c | 174.98$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 47 | 42.6%20 W · 27 L | -4.0wins | -0.08per pick | 51cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xaab6…607ebacked Over | 55c | 159.97$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.78 | 432 | 50.9%220 W · 212 L | +5.7wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9ff5…f136backed Under | 47c | 147.08$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.08 | 88 | 52.3%46 W · 42 L | -3.5wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa844…6179backed Over | 53c | 103.77$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55 | 29 | 34.5%10 W · 19 L | -4.1wins | -0.14per pick | 49cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x6008…a80bbacked Over | 52c | 96.15$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 786 | 51.8%407 W · 379 L | -16.6wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1683…6906backed Over | 54c | 60$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.4 | 79 | 55.7%44 W · 35 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x84ef…cdd9backed Over | 53c | 56.6$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 156 | 49.4%77 W · 79 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb01d…46f0backed Under | 43c | 46.51$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.51 | 204 | 47.1%96 W · 108 L | +8.0wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb47b…c6b1backed Over | 53c | 37.74$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 31 | 32.3%10 W · 21 L | -4.9wins | -0.16per pick | 48cpaid | -39.9%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xd37a…2358backed Under | 53c | 37.34$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.62 | 865 | 49.1%425 W · 440 L | -4.6wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc036…fba6backed Over | 46c | 34.78$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | +0.6wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0976…922bbacked Over | 56c | 33.46$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.74 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | -1.9wins | -0.12per pick | 49cpaid | -29.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9d55…7bc7backed Under | 44c | 30.55$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.11 | 223 | 52.9%118 W · 105 L | +6.0wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x67e6…86edbacked Over | 56c | 19.76$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.07 | 84 | 57.1%48 W · 36 L | +3.9wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NHL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Flyers vs. Capitals: O/U 5.5this page
- Flyers vs. CapitalsCapitals won
- Flyers vs. Capitals: O/U 4.5Under won
- Flyers vs. Capitals: O/U 6.5Under won
- Spread: Capitals (-1.5)Capitals won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.