NHL · resolved market
Spread: Capitals (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xc0041fbfb135121b17421309eac81996f9abf949aadbae7327151ba35df2030b
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Capitalsof Capitals, Flyers
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NHLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $7,134
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $7,349
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $7,134 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 28 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NHL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NHL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xa6a8…5009backed Capitals | 37c | 4,000$1,480 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,520 | 1,406 | 47%661 W · 745 L | +58.6wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbfdf…8e02backed Flyers | 63c | 4,000$2,520 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,520 | 348 | 45.4%158 W · 190 L | -3.9wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf588…2b81backed Flyers | 3c | 1,543$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.29 | 215 | 55.3%119 W · 96 L | +17.3wins | +0.08per pick | 47cpaid | +12.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe649…4e37backed Capitals | 36c | 232.97$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$149.1 | 317 | 53.3%169 W · 148 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked Flyers | 61c | 174.17$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106.24 | 1,384 | 47.1%652 W · 732 L | +25.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x445e…9be0backed Flyers | 63c | 141.51$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.15 | 336 | 52.1%175 W · 161 L | -3.1wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6027…4320backed Flyers | 64c | 130.11$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.27 | 169 | 55.6%94 W · 75 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3f0a…7ca8backed Flyers | 64c | 127.45$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.57 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.5wins | -0.31per pick | 51cpaid | -69.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Flyers | 54c | 104.72$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.81 | 2,754 | 47.9%1,318 W · 1,436 L | +11.9wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9d55…7bc7backed Flyers | 64c | 100$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64 | 223 | 52.9%118 W · 105 L | +6.0wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2886…9bb2backed Capitals | 39c | 99.99$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.99 | 53 | 52.8%28 W · 25 L | +2.1wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +11.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xecfc…cd05backed Capitals | 37c | 75$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.53 | 868 | 52.4%455 W · 413 L | +7.0wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x28c1…ba5fbacked Capitals | 36c | 65.27$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.77 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +1.5wins | +0.26per pick | 41cpaid | +81.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6ff9…a78bbacked Flyers | 64c | 64.48$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.27 | 62 | 62.9%39 W · 23 L | +5.6wins | +0.09per pick | 54cpaid | +12.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0622…cbc0backed Capitals | 36c | 64.48$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.27 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.0wins | -0.16per pick | 49cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8e6a…089bbacked Capitals | 36c | 62.18$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.8 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.13per pick | 54cpaid | +33.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3036…15c2backed Capitals | 37c | 59$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.36 | 416 | 50.7%211 W · 205 L | +15.5wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3b16…1290backed Capitals | 37c | 45$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.35 | 139 | 52.5%73 W · 66 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Flyers | 62c | 43.84$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.26 | 1,846 | 57.2%1,055 W · 791 L | +85.0wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x51eb…6bfabacked Flyers | 66c | 42.5$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 212 | 53.3%113 W · 99 L | -3.2wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xada5…db70backed Capitals | 36c | 41$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.1 | 434 | 56%243 W · 191 L | +16.2wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x099f…c1e1backed Capitals | 37c | 37.84$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.84 | 288 | 47.2%136 W · 152 L | +2.9wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | 0%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed Flyers | 63c | 35.75$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.67 | 1,530 | 51.7%791 W · 739 L | +22.5wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc5b5…7e80backed Flyers | 61c | 25.82$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.75 | 1,107 | 52%576 W · 531 L | +63.9wins | +0.06per pick | 46cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1624…bf63backed Flyers | 46c | 24.61$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.42 | 393 | 44.8%176 W · 217 L | +23.3wins | +0.06per pick | 39cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdc87…7ab6backed Flyers | 63c | 21.86$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.77 | 561 | 52%292 W · 269 L | +7.1wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa33c…1b33backed Flyers | 64c | 19$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.16 | 193 | 56%108 W · 85 L | +3.9wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xefde…6505backed Flyers | 64c | 18.06$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.56 | 665 | 52%346 W · 319 L | +8.8wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NHL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Capitals (-1.5)this page
- Flyers vs. CapitalsCapitals won
- Flyers vs. Capitals: O/U 4.5Under won
- Flyers vs. Capitals: O/U 5.5Under won
- Flyers vs. Capitals: O/U 6.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.