NHL · resolved market
Golden Knights vs. Jets: O/U 4.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x8f9571ca2bdcf0e6efd1e6daf45954eb87b6e49565d6fda2cb41108dd9db4cbe
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NHLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $4,591
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $4,591 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 14 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NHL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NHL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xf0ac…4ec7backed Under | 11c | 1,596$175 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$175.33 | 318 | 28.3%90 W · 228 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xffea…5f0abacked Under | 39c | 281.5$109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$109.41 | 185 | 57.8%107 W · 78 L | +16.7wins | +0.09per pick | 49cpaid | +21.2%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Over | 61c | 238.5$145 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93.02 | 2,664 | 51.6%1,375 W · 1,289 L | +58.0wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc5b5…7e80backed Under | 6c | 182.5$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.95 | 1,107 | 52%576 W · 531 L | +63.9wins | +0.06per pick | 46cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x551c…fe91backed Under | 8c | 138.32$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.41 | 333 | 63.7%212 W · 121 L | +44.3wins | +0.13per pick | 50cpaid | +23.5%equal weight | 64+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x7c08…af98backed Under | 20c | 98.76$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 337 | 56.4%190 W · 147 L | +3.4wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6436…aa37backed Under | 37c | 81.52$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.45 | 123 | 35.8%44 W · 79 L | -14.9wins | -0.12per pick | 48cpaid | -28.8%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xab41…c453backed Over | 75c | 37.5$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.33 | 1,431 | 58.3%834 W · 597 L | +81.0wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x13c6…3520backed Over | 58c | 31$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.02 | 16 | 62.5%10 W · 6 L | +0.9wins | +0.05per pick | 57cpaid | +7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe722…57c5backed Over | 76c | 27.43$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.58 | 199 | 51.8%103 W · 96 L | -9.8wins | -0.05per pick | 57cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf0bb…049fbacked Over | 65c | 25.52$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.93 | 149 | 63.8%95 W · 54 L | +5.6wins | +0.04per pick | 60cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa9a3…f319backed Over | 71c | 20.48$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.94 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8948…76e5backed Over | 75c | 17.11$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.24 | 51 | 62.7%32 W · 19 L | +2.8wins | +0.05per pick | 57cpaid | +14%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xefcb…f64abacked Over | 79c | 14.9$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.07 | 25 | 68%17 W · 8 L | +2.9wins | +0.11per pick | 57cpaid | +18.1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NHL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Golden Knights vs. Jets: O/U 4.5this page
- Golden Knights vs. JetsJets won
- Golden Knights vs. Jets: O/U 5.5Under won
- Golden Knights vs. Jets: O/U 6.5Under won
- Golden Knights vs. Jets: O/U 7.5Under won
- Spread: Golden Knights (-1.5)Jets won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.