NFL · resolved market
Ravens vs. Vikings: O/U 49.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x8f96351a6bd733009d559e8d9983a4c13f5fb4556f56fb027c70f290da144f6b
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NFLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $2,463
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $2,555
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $2,463 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 18 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NFL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NFL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4a86…d3e0backed Under | 51c | 1,000$510 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$490 | 98 | 55.1%54 W · 44 L | +3.8wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x83b9…6124backed Over | 49c | 985$483 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$482.65 | 229 | 50.2%115 W · 114 L | +9.5wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdfc1…818dbacked Over | 49c | 500$245 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$245 | 202 | 38.6%78 W · 124 L | -4.4wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -20.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe922…39b3backed Under | 53c | 378.72$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$178.72 | 163 | 51.5%84 W · 79 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa2cc…0cbcbacked Under | 51c | 371$189 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$181.79 | 51 | 52.9%27 W · 24 L | +2.1wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5137…1556backed Over | 47c | 306.42$144 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$144.02 | 834 | 47.1%393 W · 441 L | +9.0wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x37b9…3390backed Over | 56c | 200$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112 | 22 | 27.3%6 W · 16 L | -1.7wins | -0.08per pick | 35cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4231…f63ebacked Over | 47c | 141.51$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.51 | 412 | 48.5%200 W · 212 L | -4.8wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x781c…db68backed Under | 44c | 100$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56 | 684 | 46.1%315 W · 369 L | +16.9wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2129…4222backed Under | 44c | 100$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56 | 611 | 48.6%297 W · 314 L | +10.7wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3e0b…cd84backed Over | 48c | 99.99$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48 | 80 | 47.5%38 W · 42 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7d80…07d4backed Under | 53c | 94.34$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.34 | 15 | 66.7%10 W · 5 L | +2.0wins | +0.13per pick | 54cpaid | +22.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xced0…c680backed Over | 48c | 52.08$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 135 | 55.6%75 W · 60 L | +6.8wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x019c…643ebacked Under | 53c | 47.17$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.17 | 55 | 54.5%30 W · 25 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf580…516ebacked Under | 56c | 35.71$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.71 | 39 | 38.5%15 W · 24 L | -4.0wins | -0.10per pick | 49cpaid | -30.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x45da…806fbacked Under | 52c | 28.36$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.54 | 9 | 88.9%8 W · 1 L | +2.8wins | +0.31per pick | 57cpaid | +61.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f5…1caabacked Under | 51c | 21.2$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.41 | 414 | 50.5%209 W · 205 L | +5.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x868f…4806backed Under | 52c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.6 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | -0.8wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NFL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Ravens vs. Vikings: O/U 49.5this page
- 1H Spread: Ravens (-2.5)Vikings won
- 1H Spread: Ravens (-3.5)Vikings won
- Ravens vs. VikingsRavens won
- Ravens vs. Vikings: O/U 47.5Under won
- Ravens vs. Vikings: O/U 48.5Under won
- Spread: Ravens (-3.5)Ravens won
- Spread: Ravens (-4.5)Ravens won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.